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Am I missing something? One in ten covid deaths in the UK?

122 replies

StealthPolarBear · 07/06/2020 12:41

I realise there will bee differences in the way other countries are classifying and reporting deaths, and some won't be reporting at all. But with figures as they stand, one in ten worldwide deaths are in the UK - that is a huge proportion surely.

OP posts:
GalesThisMorning · 08/06/2020 07:44

@rwalker the countries with the highest death toll will be the ones with the highest failings, surely. There is no point in saying oh well no one could have done it any better when clearly so many countries, many much poorer, have. Vietnam is a good example.

I agree with you that people are choosing not to comply and that's going to cause problems. However our government did too little too late and cost us an awful lot of lives and money in the process. They have been operating in a state of panicked reaction this whole time: herd immunity! Large events, great! Everyone shake hands! Fuck no stop shaking hands! Lockdown save lives! Fuck! Stay alert save lives! Fuck! Go to work if you can stay home if you can! Quarantine visitors 3 after all! At some point think about masks! Fuck! Track and trace? Erm???

AllIMissNowIsTheSea · 08/06/2020 08:40

bumblingbovine49 it's interesting that you use the word fatalistic encourage the fatalistic view that nothing can be done, it is all out of our control and no one can do anything because that's exactly what I've been thinking about Britian since 2016.

The word "optimism" is being used in the British dialogue, but it actually means fatalism. People say "I choose to be optimistic" when describing a fatalistic "whatever will be will be" "everything happens for a reason" "out of our hands" "there's nothing we can do anyway" "act of god" mindset.

Oliversmumsarmy · 08/06/2020 08:59

We are I think the 3rd most densely populated country in Europe out side of the Netherlands and Belgium (not counting Monaco, Gibraltar and the Vatican City)

Netherlands and Belgium taking into account their population size have the equivalent of approximately 24000 and 66000 deaths respectively.

I think you also have to take account of the amount of densely packed cities we have compared to a lot of the Caribbean islands where there is one or two towns outside the capital and people are a lot more evenly spread out and the weather plays a part.

IpanemaGallina · 08/06/2020 09:05

Too slow to lockdown back in March. If Johnson had locked down even a week earlier, it would have prevented so many deaths.

Porcupineinwaiting · 08/06/2020 09:08

We dont need to compare ourselves to Caribbean islands , we can compare ourselves to countries similar to ourselves. Plenty of big cities in France and Germany, in Belgian, Holland, Italy, Japan and South Korea and the USA.

We are not doing well. We can learn from.similar countries to ourselves that are doing better, but boy are we reluctant to.

Sicktaethebackyeeth · 08/06/2020 09:10

The difference is that other countries lie about their figures.

Ofitck · 08/06/2020 09:12

"Despite the differing severities of lockdown, Spain's % deaths in relation to size of population is not so different to the UK's (at the moment). Spain's lockdown was ridiculously strict and straight out of the Franco era."

Is a pretty offensive sweeping statement and as a resident of the Basque region who suffered more than any at the hands of Franco yet who show a demonstrable increasing support for the governments lockdown handling, clearly untrue.

Anyway, the strict lockdown worked. Spain was two weeks ahead of you. But Britains progress has stalled because theyre easing lockdowns while the R rate is dangerous. Here we are still under restrictions for another two weeks at least even though it's vanishing. Yet all people do is push conspiracies or excuses and try to defend the indefensible.

Porcupineinwaiting · 08/06/2020 09:21

No @Sicktaethebackyeeth the truth is that Britain is doing really badly. Strangely the virus doesnt seem to have heard about British exceptionalism.

Sicktaethebackyeeth · 08/06/2020 09:26

Porcupineinwaiting

Maybe if other countries didn't lie, we wouldn't look so bad. It amazes me that people are quick to stick the boot in here without thinking about how other countries come to their figures.
I mean, do you really believe China's figures? Really??

Aesopfable · 08/06/2020 09:33

England has the highest population density in Europe - Britain is further down the list only because of the Highlands of Scotland

missyoumuch · 08/06/2020 09:45

People seriously underestimate developing countries clearly. Many of these places have handled infectious disease outbreaks previously and learned from past experiences eg SARS in Asia, Ebola in Africa. Through working with WHO and international agencies there is actually a fair bit of public health resource on the ground in these places.

I have a friend working in Nigeria who says not only was the lockdown extremely strict but also that people accepted mask wearing readily despite the climate.

And as previously mentioned, respiratory viruses like CoV2 are less potent in hot sunny places and this one in particular affects older and unhealthier (eg obese, heart disease) people. There aren’t many heavy older people in the developing world.

Porcupineinwaiting · 08/06/2020 10:27

I just dont think China's figures are relevant Sick. Wtf would we aspire to be like China? Or Brazil, or Mexico or Iran? The question should be why did we do so badly compared to other equivalent countries.

rwalker · 08/06/2020 10:41

@galesthismorning

@rwalker the countries with the highest death toll will be the ones with the highest failings, surely. There is no point in saying oh well no one could have done it any better when clearly so many countries, many much poorer, have. Vietnam is a good example.

Yes and one if not the biggest failing is people not adhering to lockdown WE were told to do it and we didn't.

B1rdbra1n · 08/06/2020 11:35

Some interesting insights in this article:
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/immunological-dark-matter-does-it-exist-coronavirus-population-immunity
Unlike with the 2009 flu, elderly people are particularly vulnerable to Covid-19 – a fact that might reflect the history of exposure to coronaviruses of different age cohorts. Comorbidity is another, and a third is being male. According to Garima Sharma of Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore, who with colleagues recently published a paper on sex differences in Covid-19 mortality, women are protected by virtue of having a “backup” X chromosome. “X chromosomes contain a high density of immune-related genes, so women generally mount stronger immune responses,” she says.

Socioeconomic status, climate, culture and genetic makeup could also shape vulnerability, as could certain childhood vaccines and vitamin D levels. And all of these factors can vary between countries. The Japanese might have been afforded some protection, for example, by their custom of bowing rather than shaking hands. And though most of the disparity between the sexes is down to biology, Sharma says some of it is due to social and behavioural factors, with women being more likely to wash their hands and seek preventive care.
It is also becoming clear that protecting the vulnerable has made a big difference to outcomes so far. Italy and Germany, for example, have similar proportions of over-65-year-olds – just over 20% of the population in both cases – and yet the two have reported strikingly different fatality rates.

geekaMaxima · 08/06/2020 11:50

England has the highest population density in Europe - Britain is further down the list only because of the Highlands of Scotland

No, England still has NOT the highest density in Europe. Malta and the Netherlands are higher density, as is the part of Turkey on the European side. And that's without counting the statelets and territories like Monaco, San Marino, Jersey, etc.

I can never understand the delusions of exceptionalism I see on MN about why Britain/UK/England is just different and can't possibly be compared to all those nasty forrin places. It's no more unique than any other country. And its leaders have mightily fucked up the handling of the pandemic by any definition you care to examine.

Lily193 · 08/06/2020 22:22

There aren’t many heavy older people in the developing world. I take it you've never visited any South Pacific nations?

missyoumuch · 08/06/2020 23:16

Do Pacific islands make up the majority of the developing world population? If not then please don’t quibble with my use of “many.” I’ve lived in Africa and Asia for decades and I stand by my point.

Lily193 · 08/06/2020 23:43

missyoumuch You stated 'there aren't many' and I disagreed with you because your post was incorrect.

missyoumuch · 09/06/2020 00:00

There are not many. I’ve just Googled.

Africa population 1.2 bn
Indian subcontinent population 1.7 bn
SE Asia population 655m

Pacific island population 2.3m

tilder · 09/06/2020 07:32

@NudgeUnit I though the SARs benefit (if you can call if that) was in terms of behavioural response, not any immune response. I would be interested in any links you have about this.

Seems pretty macabre to be arguing who has done best, who has done worst. There are a lot of dead people and it has yet to run it's course.

We won't know how well (or not) individual countries have done for some time. I do agree though that in the UK, a few months ago, 20,000 dead was considered to be doing well.

I also think there are massive differences in how countries report. I have no doubt some are slightly disingenuous with their numbers, some will log deaths differently, others have fewer deaths.

I still want to know how Germany have kept their numbers down. It can't purely be because of their health system, because they're not catching it and needing hospital.

Petronius16 · 09/06/2020 16:32

From many comments here it would seem it’s difficult to make fair comparisons between countries, that’s why, as general statement, I’m not keen on cross cultural comparisons in any field. And I’ve never quite understood why the concentration is on actual deaths as compared, say, with deaths per population.

The first figure puts US as having a large number, but second shows us doing badly.

The Financial Times has used another figure - number of total deaths compared to what normally would be expected in other years. (for interest, any FT article on Coronavirus is free to read).

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) - an organisation that has no political bias puts that figure at 64,000. And that’s up to May 29th.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52976580

When the PM was telling us all to carry on shaking hands, other countries were doing the opposite. I hope he doesn’t make the same timing mistake again.

NudgeUnit · 09/06/2020 18:51

You could follow the link that @B1rdbra1n posted above @tilder, which covers some of this ground as well as discussing the German experience. I'm sure there's plenty more on the net if you do a search.

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