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Am I missing something? One in ten covid deaths in the UK?

122 replies

StealthPolarBear · 07/06/2020 12:41

I realise there will bee differences in the way other countries are classifying and reporting deaths, and some won't be reporting at all. But with figures as they stand, one in ten worldwide deaths are in the UK - that is a huge proportion surely.

OP posts:
AKissAndASmile · 07/06/2020 14:41

I read an eyeopening article about how Mongolia reacted to coronavirus and have had no deaths at all.
medium.com/@indica/covid-underdogs-mongolia-3b0c162427c2

"And no, they didn’t just get lucky.
Starting in January, Mongolia executed a perfect public health response, and they have never let up the pressure since. COVID-19 did not just leave Mongolia alone. Mongolia kicked its ass.
For this all this hard work, however, they get little credit. Nobody’s talking about the ‘Mongolian example’. Instead, we talk about total failures like Germany or Sweden. Like I’ve said, success is ZERO, and Mongolia is as zero as you can get.
Just look for yourself. See the actions they took, when they took them, and how effective it was. I think you’ll be as mind-blown as I was."

Also:

"There’s a bias here, which I’m also subject to. We give agency to ‘developed’ countries — “oooh look Angela Merkel is a scientist” — but assume that ‘developing’ nations just got lucky. We say it’s the weather, or population density, or some environmental factor of luck.
'They couldn’t possibly have saved their own asses, aren’t they poor?'"

The latter are sentiments expressed even in this very thread.

AllIMissNowIsTheSea · 07/06/2020 14:41

The German government is allowing travel within the EU now but has a strong official advice against travel to the UK - it's laughable that the Covid hotspot of Europe want to quarantene people coming in to the country! A bit like South Africa or Thailand quarantening pets coming in from the UK in case they have rabies...

Shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted doesn't even cover it...

MintyMabel · 07/06/2020 14:43

If you think every country in the world is accurately reporting their death rates (either through practical reasons or the wish to conceal) then I have a bridge to sell you.

If you think the UK is, I have a bridge to sell you.

feesh · 07/06/2020 14:43

@HotWatBot

The lips turning blue poster was actually shown to be a troll.
There were lots of posters, either ill themselves, or with sick family members, who called 111 or 999 and were told sorry, no ambulance, you’re not sick enough. You literally have to have blue lips to be admitted to hospital in the UK.

Some of those people could be saved with earlier intervention.

YounghillKang · 07/06/2020 14:44

Was it Trump or Boris who tried to spin the numbers saying it was great to have the most weekly Covid deaths because that meant his government was best at counting?

Not sure about that but do know that it was Johnson who made a big deal out of the fact that figures in the UK shouldn't be compared with other countries! And ever since there've been posters on MN trotting out the exact same line...

AllIMissNowIsTheSea · 07/06/2020 14:49

AKissAndASmile although the way that blog/ article is written doesn't inspire great trust (due to the weird tone and all the exclamation marks) if it's accurate then Mongola do indeed deserve to be held up as having got the response right.

The UK acted far too late - posters claiming that the UK got the first cases (which isn't true) seem not to line that up with the fact the UK government reacted so much later and in far greater confusion than other countries...

BogRollBOGOF · 07/06/2020 14:57

There is a distinction between died with Covid 19 and died of Covid 19. Our data doesn't show the importance of Covid 19 as a part of that death. Was the death of a relatively healthy person entirely due to Covid 19, was the death of someone already very close to the end of life but aquired the virus in the institution in which they were dying. People have been reporting that relations have had Covid 19 registered on death certificates where there has been no sign of infection.

We might not be the worst in any particular risk factor, but the effects are cumulative, dense population, very interconnected population within the UK and abroad, poverty, long life with chronic health problems, elderly population, ethnic diversity, high density housing, lattitude- Vitamin D deficieny especially as we built up to the peak.

There is evidence (although not conclusive) that the virus was present in the UK population prior to the earliest known cases, easily concealed by normal seasonal respiritory illnesses, a lack of knowledge and testing.

The real comparison comes long term at how many excess deaths countries have had. Will deathrates in the autumn be lower than usual because a large proportion of the frailest in society died in the spring? Will they increase because of delays in medical treatment?

Different govermnents will manipulate data to make themselves look good and minimise the problem on paper, or to justify the costs of dealing with the virus. Different countries have different systems for data reporting. Data reporting has changed through the pandemic as more is known and the situation changes.

3cats · 07/06/2020 14:57

The UK definitely cocked it up.

They knew it was coming to the UK and yet the government delayed taking action. This means the UK has a much higher death rate than most other countries.

It's not a mystery. It's fairly straightforward.

TeaForTara · 07/06/2020 14:58

They were happy enough to show us comparisons with other countries until their lines flattened out and ours kept going up, then hey presto, comparisons are meaningless so we won't show them any more.

0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h · 07/06/2020 15:00

It's horrific. I really don't understand why people are so willing to put up with it and have it increase.

StatisticalSense · 07/06/2020 15:04

@AllIMissNowIsTheSea
It's not that simple. England's population density is significantly higher than the rest of the UK and would be much higher in the list. You are also forgetting that what matters for the spread of a virus is the density in the parts of a country that people actually live as having large areas of unoccupied or barely occupied land will do nothing to slow tranmission.

daytriptovulcan · 07/06/2020 15:04

It's not because of population density. South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are all as, or more, dense.
The answer is one word: Boris, Commins et Al.

daytriptovulcan · 07/06/2020 15:06

Those 3 countries have deaths in the hundreds from covid 19.

Lily193 · 07/06/2020 15:06

@AKissAndASmile

I read an eyeopening article about how Mongolia reacted to coronavirus and have had no deaths at all. medium.com/**@indica**/covid-underdogs-mongolia-3b0c162427c2

"And no, they didn’t just get lucky.
Starting in January, Mongolia executed a perfect public health response, and they have never let up the pressure since. COVID-19 did not just leave Mongolia alone. Mongolia kicked its ass.
For this all this hard work, however, they get little credit. Nobody’s talking about the ‘Mongolian example’. Instead, we talk about total failures like Germany or Sweden. Like I’ve said, success is ZERO, and Mongolia is as zero as you can get.
Just look for yourself. See the actions they took, when they took them, and how effective it was. I think you’ll be as mind-blown as I was."

Also:

"There’s a bias here, which I’m also subject to. We give agency to ‘developed’ countries — “oooh look Angela Merkel is a scientist” — but assume that ‘developing’ nations just got lucky. We say it’s the weather, or population density, or some environmental factor of luck.
'They couldn’t possibly have saved their own asses, aren’t they poor?'"

The latter are sentiments expressed even in this very thread.

You can't seriously compare countries like Mongolia with the UK, Germany or Sweden. Have you actually been to Mongolia or do you have any first-hand knowledge of their population or healthcare system?
StatisticalSense · 07/06/2020 15:07

If anyone believes the data coming out of China, or that China didn't know about the virus long before the rest of the world, they are deluded. This makes the figures for Taiwan and Hong Kong to be basically irrelevant for comparison purposes.

BogRollBOGOF · 07/06/2020 15:18

Mongolia is geographically very different to the UK in just about every way. While the population is concentrated on Ulan Battaar and a handful of small towns dotted around, being nomadic is still culturally normal and many suburbs are still made uo of gers/ yurts. People and school systems are used to being isolated bording school is culturally normal for a large proportion of the nomadic people. Face covering is no issue in a Mongolian winter, you wouldn't want your face exposed anyway and the air pollution in Ulan Battaar is very, very high. Cars tend to be old and manual for easy self-repair. The humidity is very low. Temperature ranges can easily vary by 30oC in a day. People are culturally prepared for occurances like Zuds, a particularly harsh winter. Transport is at a small easily controlled number of points. The population don't just nip off to Italy to go skiiing at half term. They are culturally weary of their neighbours China and Russia and reluctantly took on Soviet style communism in the Cold War as the lesser of two evils.

It's a fabulous country, one of my favourite places in the world. I'm sure road building has changed it in the decade since I've been so it no longer takes days of driving across the desert to get from one major town to the other.

The logistics of virus management are vastly different between the UK and Mongilia. Stick Manchester in the middle of the Gobi Desert, and the outcomes would be very different!

TheOriginalMrsMoss · 07/06/2020 15:21

@MarcelineMissouri

It’s impossible to judge at this stage as everyone is recording deaths differently. Spain have just completely overhauled their reporting system. Some countries are still only recording hospital deaths. There is no way some of the figures from eg Brazil are accurate. We’ve been told a number of times that the most comparable way to tell is by looking at excess deaths in a year or so. That’s not to say we are doing well, we clearly are not. But it’s not nearly as straightforward as just looking at the existing figures that are out there.
This. x 100%
AllIMissNowIsTheSea · 07/06/2020 15:22

StatisticalSense that's true of almost all countries though - statistically sparsely populated countries often actually have the majority of their population concentrated along the coasts or have very densly populated cities along with vast empty tracts of (often difficult to live on) land elsewhere.

The UK isn't a unique environemnt where no matter what the governement did it was inevitable Covid deaths would be astoundingly high. The governemt responded to slowly and inefficiently, and are continuing to handle the situation badly.

Hollyhobbi · 07/06/2020 15:22

A friend of my sister's lives in Vietnam. Very tough lockdown. Only allowed out to shop not for exercise. Face masks worn all the time. 0 deaths from Covid 19. We should all have been wearing face masks as soon as it appeared in our countries (I live in Ireland ). Also my dad had Covid 19. Caught it from the passenger sitting beside him on a flight from Spain to Dublin on 13th March. He didn't have a high temperature or a dry cough: loss of appetite, feeling off and a very slight chesty cough were his symptoms. He's 75. I think checking elderly people's temperature is a waste of time.

Howmuchlongercanthislast · 07/06/2020 15:22

People have been reporting that relations have had Covid 19 registered on death certificates where there has been no sign of infection.

I only know 1 person who has had Cv 19. They died. They had terminal cancer and were admitted to hospital (assume CV19 free as had very limited contact with outside world in a very rural area with almost no cases). They died in hospital- post mortem tested positive for CV 19 and that is how the death was recorded.

A family member was admitted to hospital recently. Tested for Cv19 on entry (clear) but not retested 2 weeks later before being sent home to a vulnerable spouse . Madness.

feesh · 07/06/2020 15:23

@StatisticalSense

If anyone believes the data coming out of China, or that China didn't know about the virus long before the rest of the world, they are deluded. This makes the figures for Taiwan and Hong Kong to be basically irrelevant for comparison purposes.
What on Earth are you talking about re Taiwan and HK? I have friends in both places. They were really pissed off with the super-early school closures and being made to wear masks, but now they’re positively rejoicing at how well it’s been handled and very glad to be where they are. Their kids are back to school, they’re very aware of the resurgence of the virus and they know how to tackle it.
Nonnymum · 07/06/2020 15:24

What I don’t understand is how countries with a majority BAME population have the lowest death rates.
I don't think it's genes that makes the BAME death rate in he UK High. Its more likely to be socio economic factors

NudgeUnit · 07/06/2020 15:26

There are lots of factors:

  • populist government/leader (like, say, US, Brazil)
  • slow and indecisive re lockdown (compared with, say, S Korea, HK, NZ, Goa)
  • large poverty gap internally, which crosscuts elevated risk to BAME population (like US or RSA)
  • major air transport hub (like NYC)
  • high mobility of affluent sections of population (half term skiers, for instance)
  • poorly resourced healthcare system (compared with most of Europe)
  • poor social compliance culturally (compared with far east, Germany, Scandi)
  • reasonably reported statistics (unlike, say, Iran or India, where infections/deaths are probably way higher than reported)

Population density not so much, except for the Channel Islands. I think the pp has been reading too much tabloid misinfo about immigration etc.

nuttynutjob · 07/06/2020 15:28

Because the government wanted herd immunity

Prepare for the second wave.

Jennyie1 · 07/06/2020 15:29

COVID is listed on my Dad's death certify are, after gastric cancer.

Cancer killed him, not COVID.