Is there any evidence that the "idiots" on beaches etc did actually cause spread?

[LaceCurtains]

I wasn't one of them, I can't think of anything less fun than sitting on a crowded beach and I have beautiful walking country close to home, but what they did seemed to be within the rules. They were told they could travel as much as they like and be outdoors anywhere, as long as 2m apart. It would be unusual to sit closer than 2m from a stranger, even on a busy beach.

Other people seemed so cross with them, but they were only doing what they were told was OK, so be cross with government, if you must. However, if there hasn't been a related spike, doesn't that prove that there was absolutely nothing wrong with the trips or the advice?

If it had caused a problem over BH weekend, wouldn't we be seeing a big increase in hospital admissions/deaths by now?

And if we aren't doesn't that mean mass outdoor events might be OK to go ahead?

@Gwenhyrfar No. The hospital had the normal number of cases it had seen throughout lockdown then noticed new infections in people that were already in hospital that had previously tested negative and were in the COVID- free areas. Those people were infected IN the hospital by staff. Realising they had a problem in the hospital, they tested staff and found quite a number to be positive which also seemed to have been caught IN the hospital (a lot of staff were staying in an accomodation block in the hospital where you couldn't socially distance).

That was the spike. Its been confirmed it came from, and was contained in, the hospital.

There was a spike in cases in Bradford 6 days after VE day.

It doesnt take much to cause a local spike - there was one in a town in Germany when 40 new cases were traced back to one socially distanced church service. But when lots of little spikes happen concurrently, that's when you start building towards a new wave of infection.

Let's think logically

The R rate is averaged number of people a virus is transmitted to. Typically over a 2 to 5 day period unchecked they will infect 3 people

Even though some places have been crowded, on the whole the data suggests it's still only a small portion of the population. So a couple of crowded beaches but many others with good social distancing

I will work this through for the marches, because for VE Day round here there was no evidence at all of rule breaking. People sat in their gardens.

Say 5000 people at a march, so 5 infected people at a march. Each is a super spreader event ( unlikely as many people wore masks and kept some distance)

So they infect 50 people each. 250 new infections who go home and spread it to 1 other person each ( maximum R at the moment). That's 500 additional infections who will fall ill over the next 2 weeks. The data suggests that only a quarter of them will end up on the official records ( 2000 new cases a day recorded with ONS suggesting true figure is 8000)

So 125 new infections will,come to light in the next 5 to 14 days. Assume half come to light on day 5. That 65 new infections on day 5 when we get between 1500 and 2000 on a day with a lot of variability

We would be hard pressed to pick that up

What we can see is that on average R is creeping up, which suggests all these different things together are pushing R up, but with such levels of virus in circulation it's going to be hard to attribute small changes im R to specific events

@attackedbycritters surely if 5000 at a march with 5 people infected ( asymptomatic) and with an R value of 3 ( the apparent natural R rate of covid) that means they infect 3 people each not 50 so 15 new infections go home if they keep social distancing guidelines once have symptoms with a spread then of R=1 you have another 15 so 5 people went on march now 5 + 15+15 are infected ie 35 out of 5000 it is not really going to show even as a mini spike

If VE Day didn't result in a spike, I can't see anything to suggest that either beach crowds or protestors will.

VE Day people were generally staying on their own street and most streets were responsible. Even the ones that weren't at the time people had been locked down for 6 or 7 weeks so not many people who were out without symptoms were likely to have the virus.

Now for the last month people haven't been complying as much and people are using public transport to these public transport and are mixing with thousands of people in close proximity rather than a family from across the street on VE Day or maybe a bunch of people in a Conga line if they were really reckless.

*protests

Numbers have been coming down rather than up between VE Day and this weekend Marie. Prevalence in the population is lower now than it was then because regardless of the loosening in the rules the R number has still been a bit below 1, which means that every day we’ve had fewer and fewer people infected.

Coronavirus hotspots are generally known as HOSPITALS.

And the fact that NHS trusts apparently need to be told that staff and visitors should wear masks at all times (months after lockdown) absolutely beggars belief..................

R is 3 is an average, superspeaders can infect many more ..I think one person managed to infect 80 in one case

Assuming all are superspresders we would not detect the impact , so anything less will certainly be not detectable

I think it depends
Beach - people who had been following rules, families not necessarily from cities, not using PT. but maybe using toilets/parking and supermarket and petrol stations

Protesters- mass gatherings not allowed so you could presume they are more young and rule breaking may not have been SD.
But using PT
Possibly food shops?
It's now into release of lockdown and kids back at school so protesters may have picked up from family contacts or spread to family where it goes into schools

However masks.
Maybe more city locals who might in london have 17% immunity

15 outbreaks in schools in half term week (more than hospitals) and only KW children.

@Porcupineinwaiting

There was a spike in cases in Bradford 6 days after VE day.

It doesnt take much to cause a local spike - there was one in a town in Germany when 40 new cases were traced back to one socially distanced church service. But when lots of little spikes happen concurrently, that's when you start building towards a new wave of infection.

A spike 6 days after VE Day would be too soon to have been caused by VE Day.

Beaches and beauty spots have been busy for weeks but still community rates have been low and falling. Clusters tend to be picked up through hospitals, care homes and other indoor work places.

Even on a busy beach, people don't tend to set up in close contact with another cluster. The heat, humidity levels, sunlight and air movements on a beach are nowhere near the risk of an indoor venue where people are shoulder to shoulder.

Most protesters have been well spaced and many wearing masks. Any big protest will attract an element of rent-a-mob who don't care fot the cause and will catch media attention. Don't taint most protesters with their actions.

The chances of having a super spreader from the community in either setting is low and they're just not in close enough proximity to enough people for long enough to cause more than a tiny blip in data.

People are still catastrophising over VE day spikes which have had a couple of weeks to show on testing data, and are now switching their prophecies to beaches and protests.

super spreaders are rare in a protest of 10,000 there would on average be 10 people with covid the chances of even one being a super spreader are low but as @attackedbycritters said even with 5 superspreaders it would be unlikely to cause a spike amongst so many

IT has now been seen all over Europe regardless of type of lockdown that the deaths have pre-domintly being the elderly and care homes which deal with both the elderly and vulnerable have been worst hit

Scotland Sweden comparisons are quite useful as they both have about half of the population concentrated around a few big cities towns and lots of very rural sparsely populated areas

Sweden has a population of 10 million and has 44, 730 cases and 4659 deaths on 7th June

Scotland has population of just over 5 million and has 15,000 cases ( lots less testing) and 2415 deaths on same date
Scotland's figues should be roughly half swedish figures, which they are overall the death per million is almost identical and the care home deaths similar percentage wise, it is difficult to see exactly how much lockdown has benefited Scotland

The lockdown has achieved nothing - as the Sweden / Scotland comparison shows. Oh nothing except wrecking the economy and screwing people’s lives up for years to come. Well done Johnson!!!!!

The lockdown has achieved nothing. It's certainly achieved less in the UK than in other countries where it was stricter but where they are now virtually restriction free with no concomitant rise in new cases.

Sorry, first sentence meant to be a quote from pp.

@Noextremes2017 Scottish lockdown is Nicola's decision on almost all aspects,
shortage of PPE in England buck stops with Johnson, shortage of PPE in Scotland buck stops with Sturgeon
NHS England decides to send elderly with covid back to carehomes ultimately Boris's decision, Nicola made similar decision for Scotland buck stops with her, she can't pretend that when things are devolved like NHS it is somehow up to England to solve the problem
procurement is separate for England and Scotland, rules re who can met who, when and where are all devolved but differing decisions have not made any statistical difference whatsoever
Education in Scotland was devolved even before Scottish parliament existed
fundamentally in all countries opening up has not led to many problems very small clusters ie 40 in Germany around a church, another cluster at meat packing plant, a few around one school in France but no virus taking off again expontentially, cafes restaurants open again in most of Europe but there are no big spikes maybe some tiny localised ones

What about all the people in London on protest marches. We all realise the Racism issue is very important. But, No social distancing being adhered to there, was there!

I was surprised to see boxer Anthony Joshua in the crowd.

How is that encouraging social distancing.

@TheCanterburyWhales

The lockdown has achieved nothing. It's certainly achieved less in the UK than in other countries where it was stricter but where they are now virtually restriction free with no concomitant rise in new cases.

In hindsight we should have locked down for a month a week earlier in March and then would be nearer normality now with far fewer deaths and a lower rate of infection. Especially if the month was used to get track and trace in place. We've had 10 weeks of a half arsed lockdown that came too late.

@Oblomov20

What about all the people in London on protest marches. We all realise the Racism issue is very important. But, No social distancing being adhered to there, was there!

I was surprised to see boxer Anthony Joshua in the crowd.

How is that encouraging social distancing.

It's mostly young people who gave up on lockdown several weeks ago.

Well if people in large gatherings are wearing masks and generally moving around how much difference does social distancing REALLY make. I suspect that when this is all examined in a few months time the answer will be ‘not much’.
Problem is that Johnson / Sturgeon have made so many errors they will never admit to that they HAVE to take ‘baby steps’ to keep up the fear factor they have deliberately generated.

The answer to the OP appears to be ‘no’.

uk.yahoo.com/news/not-single-covid-outbreak-linked-crowded-beaches-124027364.html