Is there any evidence that the "idiots" on beaches etc did actually cause spread?

[LaceCurtains]

I wasn't one of them, I can't think of anything less fun than sitting on a crowded beach and I have beautiful walking country close to home, but what they did seemed to be within the rules. They were told they could travel as much as they like and be outdoors anywhere, as long as 2m apart. It would be unusual to sit closer than 2m from a stranger, even on a busy beach.

Other people seemed so cross with them, but they were only doing what they were told was OK, so be cross with government, if you must. However, if there hasn't been a related spike, doesn't that prove that there was absolutely nothing wrong with the trips or the advice?

If it had caused a problem over BH weekend, wouldn't we be seeing a big increase in hospital admissions/deaths by now?

And if we aren't doesn't that mean mass outdoor events might be OK to go ahead?

Dorchesters reported infection rate has been unchanged since Tuesday.

The thing with Cheltenham is that is much of it wasn't "outdoors". It brought 1000s of people into bars and restaurants too.

ITonyah Yes the R rate has significantly risen here in Dorset .Not helped by last weekends people diving off of Durdle Door no doubt .leading to the police having to herd everyone into a crowd ,to allow the helicopter to land . What can we do though? the beach is a public space ,and just because we live near the sea doesnt mean its "ours"! Unless we lock down again ,we presumably are allowed to travel without any restrictions!

[quote VettiyaIruken]www.echo-news.co.uk/news/18489316.southend-saw-big-spike-confirmed-virus-cases-bank-holiday-beach-visits/

www.northwaleschronicle.co.uk/news/18472271.dozens-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-north-wales-second-county-sees-weekend-spike/

www.carlowlive.ie/news/home/547030/latest-spike-in-positive-covid-19-cases-in-carlow-over-the-bank-holiday-weekend.html

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/rise-coronavirus-deaths-bristol-recorded-4163978.amp[/quote]
The North wales story is misleading.

The health board finally got around to testing and our numbers went up, but there are not increases in hospital admissions or deaths. We are still in serious lockdown here, so you would be hard pressed to attribute a spike to beach goers. Our police are gleefully (if judged by their tweets) sending English people home. I was in Waitrose last week and didn't see a single pair of hunter wellies or men in pink trousers, so I feel reassured we are not under a tourist seige.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52942329

Slothsarecreepy

Dd plus friends are working at Dorchester hospital.

I very much hope this whole thing is burning itself out and the crowded beaches are a red herring.

@ITonah And? Does that make a difference to the fact the county aren't reporting new infections for days on end?

It's too early to know.

Incubation is up to two weeks, then people need time to realise it's not just a cold, get tested, a result and the result to be recorded in official figures.

Give it another three weeks and we should know.

[quote Slothsarecreepy]@ITonah And? Does that make a difference to the fact the county aren't reporting new infections for days on end? [/quote]
No, not at all, just anecdotal! We'll see, hopefully nothing significant will happen.

Still too early as it takes a week for minor symptoms then a further week for people to get sick enough to call a dr. I suppose we would see an increase in infections potentially already. I did go to the beach last week and people were well spaced, on the same day a photo appeared in the local paper saying it was crowded but it was just the angle they took it from, it's a huge beach.

Even if they don't raise the infection rate, the amount of litter and literal shit they left behind makes them idiots anyway.

Ps the n Somerset spike was a hospital outbreak and isn't in the wider community according to heath officials, community infection rates remain very low (and remember it's easy to have a large percentage increase when your numbers are low eg there had been 10 cases in this town (total) thanks to 5 care home residents who had been taken to hospital (other reasons) and caught covid there there's been a 50% rise but it is just 5 people and completely contained.

IMO a bigger issue with beach goers is no toilet facilities with predictable results and leaving litter everywhere. I wasn't there, so I wouldn't know if people were shouting or much too close, if they were then they have greater risks. The type of people taking those risks would probably have done the same in their local park if they hadn't travelled, so I doubt there's much total impact on numbers. Certainly numbers are continuing to go down quite predictably.

Community transmission is actually quite low, so while protesters took risks too (in particular any on public transport), again hopefully there won't be any major impact. I wouldn't have been comfortable being in a big group with shouting personally, but I'm not comfortable with racism either and don't think it's appropriate to tell people not to protest if they feel that's right. We've all given up a lot of freedoms recently, but sometimes political issues matter more and that has to be ok in a free society.

In the South West, we had the lowest R number throughout lockdown until everyone came down here for the beaches etc. Now we are at R=1. So yes, I would think that was at least telling.

The morons jumping off 200 foot cliffs was my problem with this. It involved at least 2 air ambulance I believe, the Air ambulances are a charity and do a fab job, they should not have to pick up brain dead cliff jumpers

This is the case Covid or not.

Hopefully people gathering outside don't spread the virus at all. I think that's what people are banking on aren't they? If this isn't the case then beauty spot trippers and protesters alike will cause a big spike. Only time will tell I guess.

Perhaps @EnlightenedOwl can enlighten us to why we have the worst record in Europe if it isn’t anything to do with people breaching social distancing guidelines. And don’t mention population density because - South Korea.

@Jux The SW still has the lowest death and infection rates in the country. The R rate jumped due to an outbreak in Weston General caused by poor infection control and was contained within the hospital. Because the rates in the SW are so low, the increased testing at WGH caused a spike in the R rate. Its why R isn't a good measure as it doesn't take into account the actual rate of infection.

Australia has an R rate over 1 because it literally has a handful of new cases daily in the entire country, some days none at all.

People wondering why we've not had spikes need to read up on exponential growth.

It's possible that no-one on the beaches were covid contagious entirely because they'd been in lockdown for weeks so the spread in the community was very low. If that was the case, then there'd be no spike. If, say, 5 people were contagious, then it's possible they spread to to only 1,2, or 3 people each, so that would leave up to 15 infected, who would then go back home to lockdown and not infect anyone else, hence no spike.

Without lockdown, there could have been 100 contagious, would may have spread it to 300, who in turn may have spread it to 900 if they'd gone back to work or carried on going to restaurants, pubs, cafes, schools, etc a week later when they were contagious.

If there's no spike because of the bank holiday beaches, it's BECAUSE most people were locked down or social distancing before and afterwards.

The bottom line is that the more people come into contact with each other, the more the Virus will spread. Which I think everyone will agree is safer for all. So the more we stay away from each other, the better. Commuting to your job may be necessary, going to the beach is not. And, while we may try to keep our distance while travelling to and while on the beach, other people may not.

It may sound harsh, but that is the reality of our situation. That our death rate is not falling very fast suggests to me that we are still, collectively, coming into contact with each other too much. It is up to each of us to question our own contact patterns and determine whether each contact is really necessary.

Slothsarecreepy - it’s not really very reassuring to say that increased testing in one hospital is what caused the rate to go up in the SW and that it has been contained within the hospital. How do we know that, yet? What if they increased testing in the general community, too? Are you confident that wouldn’t actually confirm that infections have not also increased in the community? If it’s mainly the young and healthy who are risking breaking social distancing, it would take a phenomenally long time for it to become obvious the R was out of control again, because so many people would be getting relatively mild infections. Surely it wouldn’t become obvious until it was so prevalent again, that even older and more vulnerable people still trying to isolate were unable to avoid getting it, too?

I hate cut and paste! My message should have read:

The bottom line is that the more people come into contact with each other, the more the Virus will spread. So the more we stay away from each other, the better. Which I think everyone will agree is safer for all. Commuting to your job may be necessary, going to the beach is not. And, while we may try to keep our distance while travelling to and while on the beach, other people may not.

It may sound harsh, but that is the reality of our situation. That our death rate is not falling very fast suggests to me that we are still, collectively, coming into contact with each other too much. It is up to each of us to question our own contact patterns and determine whether each contact is really necessary.

@MadameMeursault

Perhaps *@EnlightenedOwl* can enlighten us to why we have the worst record in Europe if it isn’t anything to do with people breaching social distancing guidelines. And don’t mention population density because - South Korea.

Do you understand people have died with cv not necessarily of it?

I live in one of the towns featured in the news, to be honest i was pretty relaxed about it, to be begin with and though the papers were making it appear worse than it was- same as op.. then i needed to drive past the pier (carer out on calls) and it completely freaked the life out me, there were literally herds of people, it was like one of our major tourist events was on. Without the risk of sarcastic replies when you live here you can tell people who dont, and most of the people looked like they were visitors....
Our R rate is increasing quickly so i would presume theres a connection!

www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/health-officials-confirm-source-north-4193110.amp&ved=2ahUKEwis6crpve_pAhVaSxUIHev8D0kQFjAAegQIBxAC&usg=AOvVaw3lOK-EBzI2RDQT6CEK6_sI&ampcf=1

@Walkaround Public Health England, The Council and the NHS confirm the outbreak came from within the hospital and are confident there was no evidence of community spread.

Below is why the R number is not helpful when viewed outside the actual prevalence rate.

Analysis: Two universities say South West R value is one



Jenny Walrond
Health Correspondent, BBC Spotlight

Two universities have said the R number in the South West is now one.
The R value tells us how many people catch coronavirus from each infected patient and it needs to be below one in order for the virus to die out.
Both the University of Cambridge and The London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine put the R value for the South West at one.
But government figures show that the greater South West, which includes Gloucestershire and Wiltshire, has the lowest number of coronavirus cases (7,766) and the lowest rate of infections by population (138.9 per 100,000 people)
This means we have fewer cases but those cases are more likely to be passed on to someone else.
If 100 people had coronavirus in the South West and the R value is one, between them they would pass it on to another 100 people.
Somewhere like the West Midlands with a higher number of cases but a lower R value of 0.8 might have 1,000 people with the virus who between them pass it on to another 800.
We need to be careful about the statistics because not everyone who has the virus is tested and with low overall numbers here it is easy for a small local outbreak such as the one around Weston-super-Mare to skew the figures for the whole region.