Is there any evidence that the "idiots" on beaches etc did actually cause spread?

[LaceCurtains]

I wasn't one of them, I can't think of anything less fun than sitting on a crowded beach and I have beautiful walking country close to home, but what they did seemed to be within the rules. They were told they could travel as much as they like and be outdoors anywhere, as long as 2m apart. It would be unusual to sit closer than 2m from a stranger, even on a busy beach.

Other people seemed so cross with them, but they were only doing what they were told was OK, so be cross with government, if you must. However, if there hasn't been a related spike, doesn't that prove that there was absolutely nothing wrong with the trips or the advice?

If it had caused a problem over BH weekend, wouldn't we be seeing a big increase in hospital admissions/deaths by now?

And if we aren't doesn't that mean mass outdoor events might be OK to go ahead?

@Larkspurandhollyhocks

Do you actually believe what you are saying. No hope getting out of this mess while people think this

Which part of that post is incorrect in your esteemed opinion?

Do you think the VIRUS is everywhere lurking waiting for you

Which parts of the Lindy2's post do you take exception to EnlightenedOwl, it seems pretty rational?

Yeah. And? It's out there now. It's not going to disappear. It'll probably become more of a seasonal thing, there'll be a vaccination in the end, people will catch it, most will be fine. Like the flu some will die.
What's your point?

I don't think the sunshine thing is true.

Just c&p'd the below from here:
gamahealthcare.com/latest/will-uv-light-stop-the-covid-19-outbreak

The Sun emits three types of UV radiation. UV-A, UV-B and UV-C. UV-C is the most potent against microorganisms.

When US researchers compared UV machines that produced primarily UV-C light with ‘pulsed’ systems that produced predominantly UV-A & UV-B, they found that the UV-C machine was significantly more effective.

However, UV-C is normally stopped by the Earth’s ozone layer. If Summer stops the spread of COVID-19, it won’t be due to increased UV-C from the Sun.

I am an advocate of loosening restrictions and tolerating some level of risk. I accepted a lockdown to gain understanding and prepare the NHS, but I think a staged, steady release is important. BUT I agree with Lindy2 that the beach is a much lower risk environment that thousands mingling, shouting and using public transport.

However, I absolutely defend their right to peaceful protest and I wouldn't have stopped the demonstrations.

Yes I do believe what I wrote.

I don't think anywhere crowded is a good place to be right now (hence why I was neither at a beach or a protest) however, certain behaviours and actions are higher risk than others, as I detailed.

I agree.

The litter, the carelessly parked cars, the shit on the other hand....

@SamSeabornforPresident

What about VE Day? Was there a spike after that? I'm in Scotland so I don't think there was the same focus on VE Day up here. I'm interested in figures up here at the end of the week, 2 weeks after lockdown (sort of) ended.

It hasn't arrived yet but I've been assured it's arrival is 'imminent'

Infection numbers are not instantly reactive to events as others have mentioned, it takes 7-14 days to show symptoms and similar to then further spread (which will depend on whether they isolate effectively). Therefore given the estimate that 1 in 600 might have COVID only a few would have caught it and taken it back to their various towns. That might mean R 5-10 for those cases but plenty would be R0 still isolating so overall the numbers won’t show much beyond normal daily variations.. yet.. The issue is the spread they then have and whether that is contained to 1 other or they continue to mingle when infectious (some will, some won’t). Each transmission has a 1-2 week delay so notable effects aren’t observed for a month or two.

If you look at any epidemic data, second waves are not immediate. There’s a lull and it takes a while for numbers to get high again.

The viciousness and nastiness of some of these posts are astounding. There is no need for such language IMO.

People are not social distancing in some instances. People are in others.

Deaths are continuing. Testing is problematic. Many people are predicting a second wave. Many people are saying mostly it may be mild. Thing is nothing is known for certainty.

And we should all be able to put out opinions without foul language

@PickleKing well said but as you can see the British are still under the impression that we are doing wonderfully well. We are world beaters when it comes to coronavirus doncha know.

I went to the beach with the dog early on Monday. Over about a mile and a half of beach I counted about 20 other human beings and about the same number of dogs.

We all had a great paddle. No social distancing was broken.

It was about common sense. This whole virus has been about common sense.

Wow, nice to see all the Covid experts have turned up, welcome guys. Taking time out from your civil rights knowledge today?

The morons jumping off 200 foot cliffs was my problem with this. It involved at least 2 air ambulance I believe, the Air ambulances are a charity and do a fab job, they should not have to pick up brain dead cliff jumpers

The R rate has jumped hugely in the SW so I think it at least needs to be considered as a contributing factor.

Isn't that just around the hospital in Weston ITonyah, nothing to do with community transmission? Actual numbers of cases in SW are still very low (because they benefited from lockdown coming much earlier in the progress of the virus there)

Its amazing on Mumsnet. Apparently letting Cheltenham races go ahead was ridiculous and dangerous (and indeed according to R4 there was a large spike in cases after Cheltenham), but people crowding together on beaches is absolutely fine and any spike in those areas must be imaginary.

I would love there not to be a spike in cases in the SW, but I suspect there will be, and when everyone is bored with us in October we will end up having a regional lockdown and no furlough so businesses really will.go under.

Isn't that just around the hospital in Weston ITonyah, nothing to do with community transmission?

Dorchester hospital is now busier than it has ever been with Covid cases.

Which parts of the Lindy2's post do you take exception to EnlightenedOwl, it seems pretty rational

Unlike Owl's response which is worthy of a primary playground.

@pickleking

I agree and I have wondered if everyone was social distancing and working from home etc why figures have been so high.

However we are a high density population. We have been reporting deaths differently to other countries.so comparisons without those factors and including deaths per million is very difficult

As for the beach situation we are NEVER going to know because apparently people drove for miles to be there and then drove back to their families and communities so the results can not be monitored.

Do I think lockdown should have been stricter ? Possibly because there was lots of evidence that people were ignoring it so perhaps the government were naive in expecting compliance.

@ITonyah

Its amazing on Mumsnet. Apparently letting Cheltenham races go ahead was ridiculous and dangerous (and indeed according to R4 there was a large spike in cases after Cheltenham), but people crowding together on beaches is absolutely fine and any spike in those areas must be imaginary.

I would love there not to be a spike in cases in the SW, but I suspect there will be, and when everyone is bored with us in October we will end up having a regional lockdown and no furlough so businesses really will.go under.

The cases that resulted from the Cheltenham festival have been traced back. That hasn't happened in the case of the SW and tourists. At the moment, new infections appear to be centred in care homes/hospitals (to a lesser extent) and are crossing back into the community via people who work there. There's no evidence that people visiting beaches are a new source of infections. But beaches can always be closed off again if evidence is found.

If anyone is interested in scientific fact, the graphs and numbers threads are great.

It seems that while spikes were definitely caused as a result of mass gatherings at the beginning of the pandemic, (the figures have been released as far as they could have been about how many people known to have attended one of the football matches have subsequently died for example) as there are now, thanks to the measures taken, fewer undiagnosed and asymptomatic cases around, any "spike" caused in 2-3 weeks time from recent similar mass gatherings won't be as high. Scientists around the world are also recording that the virus itself seems (though it's early days) to be losing its strength- as in those falling ill with it are, by and large, not as seriously ill as the people at the beginning. Too soon to tell obviously why that is, or if it's a permanent weakening of the virus itself.

Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should.

Somehow we’ve found ourselves in a society where everyone’s individual ‘rights’ trump common sense, taking personal responsibility, and individual decision making, and the government don’t feel able or willing to tell people to take personal responsibility for their actions and decisions.

So the messages of a few weeks ago relaxing lockdown slightly needed to be strongly tempered with messages that people needed to think for themselves and be responsible: if you get somewhere and it’s busy then go home 🤷🏻‍♀️ even if that causes disappointment or inconvenience.

I live in a costal town went on seafront looking down prom it was rammed .BUT when you actual looked closely vast majoraity not quite all in separate groups more than 2m apart

Look at the worldometer site...iran Is now classed as 'second wave', look at England, not over a first wave snd after all the demonstrations and gatherings, good luck. It could be called a natural culling except we are putting all those health workers back on the frontline again.