I didn’t think it was possible to be more disappointed in the government
I'll disclaimer before I start that I am not impressed with the Government at all and this is not me sticking up for them.
However, this is an - much overused word - unprecedented situation and is ever evolving and changing. There is not much to go off in terms of what might happen - other than looking at the Spanish flu situation a 100 years ago post war with poorer nutrition and without the benefits of technology - so trying to predict today what might be 'best fit' in September is a bit like nailing the proverbial jelly to the wall. They just don't know. And if they don't know, they're not going to tell us because with reference to the Department for Education's 41 changes to the guidance in a week, it's pointless - and impossible - asking schools to plan for 53 possibilities (made up number) when only one is going to go ahead.
It has been clear to me from the outset that September was always in jepoardy. I am not sure why parents generally seem not to be thinking the same as me. struggling. If the evidence is that there is no significant upsurge in cases after schools have sort of, possibly, maybe gone back then we might find a gung-ho, fuck it for the sake of the economy, let's have all the primary kids back in and tell the teachers they have to do the impossible which is enforce social distancing. School staff death will just have to be collateral damage and we will console ourselves with the (hideous) well, must have had an undiagnosed, underlying condition they were going to die of soon anyway. Although see below about Academy's.
Secondary, however, is a different kettle of fish. Behaviour can be difficult in all but the best schools. Corridors weren't built for social distancing, neither were classrooms. Days have not been organised with social distancing in mind - some schools can shove 800 kids through lunch in 30 minutes, for example, and we will be resistant to working longer hours for the forseeable along with everything else (and when shouting at me for that, please remember that many, many of us are parents too and facing exactly the same issues as you). 1000 plus kids, many of whom will be adult sized - so can no longer do the kid's dont transmit it argument - plus may be 80 plus adults and it is a massive headache. School staff infection and deaths will be inevitable - and you know what, given that many schools are now academys/private companies - they are going to have to be very careful in how they manage the health and safety of their staff if they don't want legal claims in the future. Add to that the possibilities of localised lock downs, second waves, longer term full lock down......
It seems to me that at some point, we will be told to plan for part in-school, part-at home school for secondary. But they won't do that until they are absolutely certain that there will be no other way. I predict that will happen around 25th August, give or take a few days, and teachers will lose the end of the holiday in school trying to work out how it will look in their environment. Provision will vary according to the school - size, number of students, number of staff who are shielding or who have shielding family members they live with plus vulnerable staff - but it seems likely we will be needing to see students in school for some of the time and provide some other form of learning for them the rest of the time to do be done from home. It may be that this gives shielding staff a reason to be at home which would be amazing for them and would help the very obvious conundrum of how do you teach both online and in school at the same time. Students recognised as genuinely vulnerable/at risk, possibly with some support and risk assessment jointly with Social Services, will be in school full time. The Government will need to provide the financial support necessary to make this work - purchase of relevant IT packages, for example, and someone making Oak Academy better than it currently is (in my subject, it is good but very, very patchy), possibly funding for extra working hours for some teachers as well as consider how it can help families with limited internet access (Corbyn's internet for all not looking quite so daft now, eh?!).
On that anticipated fateful day in August, the Government will probably announce what they intend to do for the current year 10s and 12s as well. Cue re-work of schemes of work and mass panic amongst teachers working with exam classes.
Can't wait 