Covid in December

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Our Trust has started antibody testing this week and interestingly 2 members of staff who were off sick with what they thought was flu 2 weeks before Xmas now have covid antibodies. Both had coughs and difficulty breathing and neither have been sick since then. It just goes to show that covid was likely circulating Nov/Dec

Many people are asymptomatic so it doesn't show that with any certainty. It could have been RSV in December or any other respiratory viruses that are rife in the winter months.

It is possible that your colleagues could have had it with no symptoms but yes I agree that it probably has been here since December.

It’s widely believed it was circulating in China in early November, then there was a man in France who tested positive just after Christmas and he had no connections with China. We also had lots of flights coming in from Wuhan in Nov and Dec so it could definitely have been circulating here.

Out of interest do you live/work in an area with lots of students or tourists from China?

Deelish,

Not really and it’s a medium sized city also. The staff who have antibodies are not young and have quite a few co-mobidities and are usually floored by a cold that the rest of us brush off easily. The fact that they have been fit and well since their illness before Xmas leads me to believe that it was covid that made them so ill.

@Bercows

Many people are asymptomatic so it doesn't show that with any certainty. It could have been RSV in December or any other respiratory viruses that are rife in the winter months.

This is true, unless there is a way to measure how long the antibodies have been there you can't be absolutely sure. Are they patient facing staff? We're told the natural R0 is around 3 so there would have been the exponential spread they talk about as no measures were being taken. Were there increased ventilator patients and deaths around the same time?

They aren’t patient facing staff but they were off sick at the same time and there were about 5 other staff in the same department who came to work with coughs and looking dreadful but they haven’t had their antibody tests yet

Out of interest do you live/work in an area with lots of students or tourists from China?

My husband does and we are both convinced he had Covid-19 in late December

Now the antibody tests are starting it’ll be very interesting to see how many have found similar. I’m convinced my family member who works in the centre of London had it in December.

I’m thinking if my SIL is positive for antibodies we’ll also be more certain that we had it in late February as we became ill after staying over at her house. She is a surgeon.

@Realitea

Now the antibody tests are starting it’ll be very interesting to see how many have found similar. I’m convinced my family member who works in the centre of London had it in December.

I’m thinking if my SIL is positive for antibodies we’ll also be more certain that we had it in late February as we became ill after staying over at her house. She is a surgeon.

If she did have it in December you couldnt have caught it from her in February though, she'd have been long past being infectious.

My brother who is never ill, in his 30s, very fit and healthy, spent 3 days in bed with COVID symptoms around new year.

He works in an industry which deals eith Chinese investors on a daily basis.

As soon as the news about corona came out I said I thought he had had it.

I'm Kind of hoping it wad because we saw him when he was I'll and none of us got ill badly so hoping we had asymptomatic cases.

Fingers crossed!

I think the antibody tests will show it was circulating here in December. Maybe just at a low level and then it took until Feb to take off.

There are reports it was in Wuhan before November. All those flights here from Wuhan and yet it didn’t reach us until late Jan/ early Feb? Seems unlikely

And yes a case had been discovered in France from Dec 24th...

This would also fit in with a discussion we are having on another thread about some percentage of the population having some immunity. Which means the virus may have taken longer to reach exponential growth than we predicted. Plus 50% asymptomatic..

It may have hit places like London first, younger populations, the ski trips, the business travellers. This is may be why we didn’t see an increase in deaths until later on.

Just some musings!

It will be interesting to see. I had horrendous conjunctivitis just before Christmas and was nearly admitted to hospital for IV antibiotics it was that bad. Then I had a respiratory tract infection in February that lasted weeks in total. It took about 2 months for my asthma/lungs to return to near normal. I too think it was circulating earlier but do t know why it took so long to start spreading rapidly. But then epidemiology isn't my area of knowledge.

I don't think the antibody tests will show when it was circulating as you can be asymptomatic and have it. Just because a regular cold might floor you, It doesn't mean COVID-19 will have.

We do however need to wait for longer term studies that demonstrate how long you have antibodies for (and whether they provide immunity). If let's say detectable antibodies last for 6 months then it's feasible it may have been circulating late last year.