R value and Schools

[palacegirl77]

Just wondered how those of you that have sent kids back to school feel about the rising R value? P.H.E suggesting it's now over 1 in some places? Should kids really be going to school unless absolutely essential (i.e. 2 parental keyworkers) right now?

Very few people actually understand how R works or what it means when it goes above 1, unfortunately.

I think this is an area where localised action could be effective, ie schools closed in areas where the R rate is high.

But we don't know if it has anything to do with schools. The science didn't change one thing at a time, it did random changes of things, and then people gave up because the government lied.

We have no way of judging the impact of schools on the R rating.

I don't have a child back at school yet but if I did I would still be happy for them to go. According to the ONS the numbers of infected people is coming down quite a bit the risk of community infection is very small

I think the question the OP is asking is if you would still be comfortable sending your child back to school in areas were the R is above 1 and therefore the virus is spreading at a rapid rate again rather than do schools have an effect on the R rating!

@MrsWhites exactly that is what I meant - thankyou! Yes I was just wondering because in Sheffield our schools were not allowed to open apart from keyworkers as before, and looking at figures now Im glad I didnt have the chance to send mine back (theyre 6 and 11 so both applicable). Im not concerned about them catching it in terms of their health - but I would rather be able to see my dad and my close family soon and would be concerned about them being in with it being up again.

Tameside have delayed their schools reopening due to the R being 1.1 in the north west but Stockport haven't. They border each other so it makes little sense to me for one council to delay but not another.

Mine is back in school, I live in the north west and it doesn't concern me at the moment or change my decision.

[waves to Bercows] , it's depressing isn't it?

Just heard our local primary is not taking y6 back because of the increased R rate.

@nellodee do enlighten us!

Most schools in the North West aren’t even back yet and it’s above 1.
I think local authority’s will make the decision with regards to the r rate and advise schools accordingly.

Yep I'm fine with mine being in school. They are back as children really struggling with lockdown and therefore classed as vulnerable.

I’m in the SE, my children are due to go back to school on Monday. Our R number has gone up to 0.97, (was 0.7 Easter weekend) we’re still going to send them but happy to pul them out if infections go up.

Our dates were originally the 8th, then it was moved to the 11th, now it's the 15th for some classes but later for other years.

@DominaShantotto

Yep I'm fine with mine being in school. They are back as children really struggling with lockdown and therefore classed as vulnerable.

What does this mean?

I am in NW and our schools start to go back on 15th June for Nursery and R.

Now tracing is in operation a significant proportion of positive tests are of mild and assymptomatic cases are being picked up that weren't previously. Some are in clusters that are now statistically significant because general transmission has fallen so much. So if person A is infected and 5 people are identified as infected through tracing, not all of them would be symptomatic. That's different to a month ago when the pool of known cases was from a much smaller cohort and those would not have been picked up unless showing symptoms, and that's vastly different to 2 months ago when none of them would have been identifed because it was pretty much the point of hospitalisation only. So 6 known cases at that point meant 6 people seriously ill.

So the real impact of those identified cases is very different from April, May and now.
A care home or hospital outbreak can significantly change a local R rate but be minimal community risk as seen at Weston Hospital.

I'd love my children's classes to be recalled for school. At 9 cases in the city in a week last week and 6 of those being a connected cluster, I'm happy with those odds. Odds of 3.5:100,000 are reasonable to me.

The German scientists who have been estimating their R value for months always stress as cases decrease local outbreaks have a bigger impact on the value causing fluctuations.

A few days ago their R value was 1.2, yesterday it was 0.57.

Where can you see what your own areas R0 is?

At 9 cases in the city in a week last week and 6 of those being a connected cluster

I'm interested in how you would find out information like this.

Evening. It was a link on twitter to a news site reporting German news. It was very interesting and not remotely sensational like our news. I'm going to go and see if I find it

I thought that the R number also includes cases in care homes, therefore the number reported near 1 is skewed and not actually indicative of what the infection rate is within the general population (e.g it is lower).

I live in area where the R is now high. Everyone shops works goes to hospital is area where it’s high. But because we’re are literally 200 metres from county border, we are technically part of an LEA run from miles away.

So they aren’t shutting down schools. But most schools are being shut by LEA 200 metres away.

Regional shutdowns are a great idea but lots of thinking needs to go int9 them.

Let boroughs decide not just county leas.

And to answer op I feel very anxious about this and more decided YR DC won’t be going back yet