Italian doctors saying Covid is getting less potent!?

[Chosennone]

Hopeful link works 🤞
I read this and there is very little detail. I was surprised that it said that the virus is virtually eradicated in Italy.

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2370OQ?__twitter_impression=true

Some people are literally determined to think we are all doomed, aren't they.

This is so true. It's almost as if they are enjoying it.

All this ridiculous crap about books predicting it. There must be many millions of books in existence and a bit like a broken clock it will be right twice a day. I bet there are piles of unmentioned books which give some random date as the date of the mystery virus, all these are arbitrary, no-one can 'predict' something like this.

Latin America were way behind us and they are not social distancing - look at Brazil.

My family are Latin American and I can tell you they are not doing any kind of social distancing at all, life away from extended family is alien in my culture.

I think predictions based on models have assumed zero immunity and 100% of the population is vulnerable to this. That's now looking very wrong.

They have found that sars-cov-2 specific t cells are cross-reactive which are present in about 40-60% of the population due to previous common cold infections, probably inside the last couple of years. The documents are mostly studies which are a little complicated but there are some articles which spell it out in a way which is easier to understand. A specific as yet unknown common cold virus which is a coronavirus (there's only 4 of them that are endemic) provides this immune response and it's very widespread. They don't know which of the colds does it but I'm sure there are many people working on this in labs around the world right now.

Could one of the 4 existing HCoVs (common cold coronaviruses) function as an effective vaccine? My suspicion is that it could and this is what explains the very large number of very mild and asymptomatic cases. So effectively we are almost up to herd immunity with this cross-reactive response - obviously, too early to call celebration but enough anecdotal and scientific evidence appearing to give a good push in that direction. I suspect by the end of the month given all the apparent 'lockdown's over' behaviour already exhibiting then we will be able to call this much better. If this is a fair assumption then all the 'top scientists' will know this already and may have even influenced Johnson's keenness to go that route back when. It will mean if true though they get away with murder effectively - let's hope not.

www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

Herd immunity though is not the same as what is alleged here by the Italian doctors. Herd immunity is when a sufficient number of individuals in the population (somewhere between 60% and 80%) have either been vaccinated or survived the disease and are carrying sufficient antibodies to combat any future infection.

What is being described here is the alleged weakening of the virus and its infectivity. If true, several issues arise. 1. This weakening can change as the virus mutates. 2. The form that is weakening in Italy is clearly not the one that is still killing people in the USA and elsewhere in large numbers. Given the lack of international travel, it is not possible for the weaker version to predominate. 3. Now that we have experienced what a virus that comes from animals can do to us, even if this virus dies out for whatever reason, we should be preparing now for the next one. But will we and he will spin like no spinner before him but hopefully it won't work any longer and the Cumming's debacle and the coming Brexit shitshow will put paid to that.

So viral weakening and effective herd immunity that would be a double good win.

Could one of the existing common cold viruses function as a vaccine
Interesting idea!

My money is defffo on the theories you discuss in your post Vera😊👍

vera very interesting post.

vera99 that is so interesting. The idea of immunity from previous coronaviruses does sound like a real win!

Both my next-door neighbours had it - the man is 75 and his wife 71. He was hospitalized for one night and had symptoms of tiredness and mildly delirious for 3 days. His wife similar but less so. He is fine now and has antibodies as well. Great relief that they got through but you would have him as a gonner under our initial understanding of risk groups, he has dodgy lungs. Something is going on that we don't yet fully understand but there's enough hope that we are going somewhere much better than before. Let's hope so.

That is reassuring to hear. I have a relative that tested positive after caring for a 90 year old who was hospitalised with it. The lady I know is mid 60s and has various underlying issues, she had no symptoms whats so ever!

The 90 year old she cares for was put on oxygen for 24 hours and then home after a few days.

The t cell research makes me feel more hopeful. X

@Bluntness100

Now there’s pessimistic and then there’s this,,,

I’m not being pessimistic. I’m just not getting carried away with thinking “it’s almost all over!” because that’s dangerous. It’s an unfortunate fact that reported Covid cases are higher than they’ve ever been worldwide and deaths have been rising in various countries - Russia and India being two that leap to mind. If Covid came get here from Wuhan, of course it can come from elsewhere. To think it can’t do so, or that this is ridiculously pessimistic, is wantonly burying your head in the sand.

There is genuine good news about Covid from places such as Italy and there is hope, and personally the sooner we are able to get back to normal, the better. If a Covid has mutated and/or if t-cell immunity means there is less risk than original feared then I’d be absolutely delighted.

Also, haven’t you learnt from your misplaced optimism earlier. I remember back in late March you were berating people who questioned whether an unexpected fall in deaths was statistical blip. You said they were doom-mongers and pessimists. They were right though.... deaths increased 10-fold in the coming couple of weeks.

You also rubbished the 20,000 UK deaths estimate as being far too pessimistic, and that those who thought we’d be as bad as Italy were deluded...,, so, no, I’m not going to accept any dismissive attacks on my posts.

They have found that sars-cov-2 specific t cells are cross-reactive which are present in about 40-60% of the population due to previous common cold infections, probably inside the last couple of years.

I think this is really exciting stuff and I hope so much it's true. I think it makes the most sense given people are coming out of lockdown and not seeing a rise in cases. The cruise ships cases suggest a majority are already immune too. I also know of several families where there has been a confirmed case of the virus in a family but the other members of the family have had no symptoms - so either they were asymptomatic or already had immunity.

This is an exciting development it could really explain how some people have no symptoms or very mild and some are far more seriously affected.

Yes lots of cases where one person in the household had it but others didn’t contract it. Given how contagious this virus is that never made any sense to me. But if they were already immune....

Delatron yes, my mum had it (she's frontline NHS and contracted it at work) but my stepdad didn't get it despite living in the same house.

This is very interesting and it's so good to hear positive news.

I know two households where not all members contracts the virus.

That's very interesting Vera. It would be good if we could trial being infected by the 'usual' human Corona viruses which cause 20% of common colds. It could provide some cross immunity.

Sort of like how the flu vaccine even if it isn't an exact match that year still gives some protection if you catch flu it will be milder. Or if you have had a similar form of most viruses before you will have a milder course as your immune system recognises it and disables it quickly.
In human Corona viruses the 'immunity' only lasts 2-3 years or so.

This is so interesting.

There was a nasty cold going round in my area in December - January time. It had all the symptoms of this corona virus but it clearly could not have been covid. I have heard lots of people mention having this similar illness, I am wondering if anyone who had it went on to catch Covid later on. Or whether this similar virus could have given some immunity.

It’s odd as my youngest had symptoms 6 weeks ago and I very mildly. DH - usually floored by colds - didn’t.

I wonder if the various corona viruses arrive, cause havoc and then settle. I know from bitter experience that the common cold can kill anyone who is immunocompromised

Aridan yes the Spanish flu did in your words, kill the perceived young and fit but it didn't eradicate the species. Many, many people caught it, faught it and survived, that makes them the stronger of the species.

Just because you are 30, run 20miles a week and have a healthy diet, doesn't necessarily mean you are the strongest of the species. You have better odds of being one, but it's not a definite.

Hence why a 54 year old can die of covid but a 75 year old survive.

No two people are the same, no two immune responses are the same. The strongest survive.

It's cruel, I know that, evolution knows that.

@vera99

That sounds very feasible as an explanation as to why it could seem to be disappearing. Let's hope so

I was told yesterday that Spanish flu still exists. It never actually went away but people simply built up immunity/resistance to it over around 2 years.

Perhaps Covid is the same but with more existing immunity/resistance already in the population so it's period of damage is shorter.

It would be wonderful if that were true. I'm happy to grasp at straws for any positives right now.

Just heard today from a friend working in IT at a large hospital not too far away from me - they have an update on their staff website saying they are seeing less virus in the samples now than they were earlier in the year & that the trust is preparing a statement on it within a few days . Also along with deaths becoming less and less. I hope this turns out to tally with the Italian doctors observations. It would make sense for a virus to evolve to become less deadly over time since if you kill the host you cannot spread further- much more efficient to keep your host alive and not too ill so they can be out and about spreading virus to other hosts.