Italian doctors saying Covid is getting less potent!?

[Chosennone]

Hopeful link works 🤞
I read this and there is very little detail. I was surprised that it said that the virus is virtually eradicated in Italy.

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2370OQ?__twitter_impression=true

joan04 no they don't mutate all at once you are correct, the more fatal strains die with their host, whilst the less fatal strains continue to circulate in the species population. A vaccination will still work against minor variance in the genome of the virus, because the "spike" structure is the same which inlisits the antibody response in the host.

Influenza is different to a caronavirus, which is why you have to keep making changes to the winter flu vaccinations and which strains they are.

I'm really hoping this is discussed more this week. 'Clinically extinct' in Italy already is blowing my mind!

Thanks coach. Does that also mean that anyone catching the weaker strain might develop some immunity to the nastier version?

I posted this on another thread on 20 May.

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A high up London based doctor I know working in London says the virus virtually disappeared overnight a week or so ago. Says it’s really weird. Almost as if it never happened and said that he and other colleagues are actually slightly freaked out about it.

I guess logic would dictate that it would mutate to a weaker form. Its essentially a parasite, and if it kills all its hosts then it dies too.

So what if governments are starting to suspect the virus is going to peter out? They can hardly say - come out everyone, it's not as bad as we thought. There would be outrage and all that wasted effort. And what if they are wrong? YOu'd never get people back in the box.

But if they are right, they need only concoct a half baked track and trace that is never going to work in a proper pandemic, and on the back of it, start easing lockdown, to the consternation of the many scientists who know its too early and there is no chance of controlling it under the current official understanding of the viruses potency.

A second spike doesn't happen and a few lone voices such as Hitchens start protesting that this proves we should never have ruined the economy, but they are drowned out by the collective cheers of relief from a general public only to ready to believe that their sacrifice had a purpose and government propaganda that our world-beating track and trace must be responsible.

And if you want a proper conspiracy, its this knowledge that Cummings has threatened to reveal unless his boss sticks up for him

I wonder how many of our powers that be know this and for how long - may be reasons for easing lockdown etc. but then I'm an optimist. I have been saying to my DH that with the suggestion at the very beginning of the virus being a lab made one, I was thinking back in April that the virus would die out - again, I was trying to think positively. Let's hope so.

I think we were lucky it was a coronavirus and not influenza, otherwise yoy would be seeing death rates like 1918
Unlikely, seeing as influenza comes around every year and we already have vaccines against influenza.

The guy who said this is a senior doctor (not a virologist), and he's coming in for a huge amount of criticism in the Italian media.

The real experts are saying nothing of the kind, and complaining that his statement's misleading. They've been saying for ages that there are sure to be loads of asymptomatic cases still around, and many of them are concerned that Italy's relaxing its lockdown too fast (although the stats are certainly much better than the UK's).

Take no notice of him.

blackswan in theory yes you'd have some immunity to a more fatal version, but the effect of the more fatal version could take hold faster than the antibodies could fight. It literally would be a battle in the immune system I'd imagine at that point.

Immunity just means your body recognises the disease and knows how to fight it.l, doesn't guarantee winning 100% of the time, it's still a fight to the finish. Not everyone's T cells or memory cells are as good as others, which is why vaccination programmes are not 100% and also natural immunity is the same. You always do get that one person who caught chicken pox twice, uncommon but not impossible

I often wondered if the common cold was just as lethal in its first round

It has been suggested that this was true when first spread to the Americas.

Funny I have been teaching the Black Death in school and it sort of eventually petered out in Europe

This might have been because of black rats populations which carried the infected fleas were replaced by brown rats.

@StatisticalSense
I am all for lockdown, think easing up in the UK now is an idiotic move and we should have closed the borders in totally in early March or even early february. Having said that....
I think that if there is irrefutable proof - data, studies, open information + reliable source quoting that has been widely peer reviewed would be presented + and action plan to further help me decide what is best for me: I would change my mind.
Atm it's more like hearsay and wishful thinking, but underlying analysis and data is not shown. I understand that most ppl would only want the end result, but in this case presenting and making every bit of valid information available would be the way forward.
oh and 1 more thing that would help change my mind: correct, clear and precise communication so I could trust the government.
Today neither is given.

God, I'd love for this to be the case but I suspect it's a bit of wishful thinking. People are still asking the experts if summer will kill it off despite there being no evidence high temps have done this worldwide. Everyone is, understandably, desperate for a bit of hope or 'good news' science, but these are a couple of very brief statements from two doctors - more information is very much needed.

A few weeks ago people were excited about a news story reporting that we'd soon have 'home testing kits' that would test reliably and instantly.

Covid is a very stable virus as it doesn't mutate much.

It could be with social distancing, washing hands people are getting a lower viral load.

It is still rampaging through countries,

But I really hope for everyone this is true.

I have a terrible lack of understanding about maths, stats, data and science but... I have noticed that the daily number of cases worldwide is still increasing but the daily number of deaths worldwide is simultaneously decreasing, and I don't know what it means. More testing, lockdowns etc I expect, but I hope there's more to it.

salad Its probably a mix of things I'd imagine, lockdowns, different treatments being trialled, better understanding of the virus, it may have already now killed off a large proportion of the population it's most fatal for (I'm fully aware that sounds, massively harsh, but I wasn't sure how else to out it, apologies) , social distancing and better personal hygiene, face coverings resulting in lower transmission and viral loads. The vunerable being shielded. A minor mitigation making it more virulent but less fatal as it's a pretty stable virus a caronavirus.

So many variables I think, it would be hard to pinpoint one.

It's all so weird and confusing 😳

Maybe this is how all coronavirus start out? They just another common cold causing virus? I have been wondering this a lot lately

I would like to believe this, but I am a bit surprised about the "extinct" in Italy, they still have over a hundred deaths per day, I wouldn't say that the virus is extinct with those numbers? It is definitely a huge improvement considering they had over a thousand deaths during their peak, but over a hundred deaths per day is a considerable number! Spain has had very low number of deaths in the last few days (1 or 2 deaths) and they are not talking about the virus being nearly extinct there!

Probably down to viral load because of social distancing rather than mutation but this is still encouraging news.

piscis I wouldn't look at death rate as a indication really I'd look at daily diagnosed cases. Sadly people take a few weeks to die, so the ones sadly dying now could be the tail end of their peak or just general settling down of numbers for their population demographic.

Maybe this is how all coronavirus is start
I have had similar thoughts and I understand that viruses have played a significant role in the evolution of the human species🤔

www.sciencefocus.com/the-human-body/virus-human-evolution/
Around half of the human genome is made up of millions of DNA sequences that can be traced back to long-dead viruses or similar ‘jumping genes’, known collectively as transposable elements or transposons.
Some researchers would even put this figure up at 80 per cent, as ancient sequences are now degraded beyond the point of being recognisably virus-like, weathered within the genome like molecular fossils.

Overall, I suspect we will learn a lot in the next six weeks or so, given that quite a few European countries lowered their lockdown a fortnight ago.

I’m not sure it’ll take as long as 6 weeks. I reckon 2-3 might turn out to be enough.

Could it be linked to the weather? I did hear that it could be possible that the virus weakens in the summer due to the temperature but that means it becomes strong again when the temperature cools.

I'm really hoping this is discussed more this week. 'Clinically extinct' in Italy already is blowing my mind!

Yes well, when I read that in the journal Nature ot the medical journal the Lancet then i might believe it, but from the main stream media and press?,

Nah!