Why is lockdown being eased when the alert level hasn’t changed?

[Skybluepink123]

Just seen that the CV alert level hasn’t been reduced from 4 to 3 yet the government are easing lockdown measures imminently. At level 4, the virus is widespread and risk is high and restrictions must be in place. Why then has the government been allowed to ease measures when there is still a clear, identifiable risk to our health?

@effingterrified

It is abundantly clear that the number of positive cases recorded immediately prior to lockdown was wildly inaccurate and that there were in fact vastly more cases in the community that were never picked up due to a lack of testing.

There are not more cases now than there were before lockdown, there just aren’t. Whether numbers are low enough now to exit/relax lockdown is another matter.

We'll be where we were in March in a few weeks if party season continues and everyone just doing what they want.

The Tories have got it wrong every step of the way. In a way they may as well have just not locked down at all and continued for herd immunity. We'll have the worst of both worlds of worst death toll (per population) and a trashed economy.

Vulnerable and at risk people can still self isolate. The rules are not forcing us all out

Vulnerable people who work in schools are going to have to have a shielding letter to isolate or a GP letter from what I've heard.

I think community transmission is down which is why they are opening up, it's care homes driving the R rate up and hospitals. Which is to be expected.

I live in a large densely populated city, I work in the community every day. Not one person I know or work with has had Covid. That's why they are opening up.

Care homes have been a disaster and an inquest should and must be held about their failings there, but community transmission is low in many areas now. So the community needs to start taking small steps out of lockdown.

The government will not lockdown again, they said, they had one chance at this and only so many weeks before lockdown fatigue set in.

And it's a London-centric country. Transmission is low in London.

To a previous poster who asked if we wanted the virus eradicated as though that was a joke..well New Zealand have. Yes they are far smaller population wise but they went for a stricter lockdown, immediate travel ban worh compulsory 14 day isolation for anyone who did need to come home. Their result- 22 deaths in total. Just 22. And no new active cases recorded for a few days now. So they can return to a world of normal and can through a strict policy allow people back into the country with compulsory quarantine. So it was possible and we utterly fucked it up

I'm fascinated people think this has anything to do with Cummings. I can't stand him and think he should resign but I can't imagine Boris would take any major steps affecting the whole country because of that situation. It will blow over - the majority will continue to think he should go, Boris will try to turn our attention to there things but really there are other issues that would make us look elsewhere.

I think this decision is based on the economy and it's based on science. It is not good for most of the country to sit around being unproductive based on a virus that is mainly in care homes and hospitals. Localised lockdowns are more appropriate at this stage - look at Weston Super Mare. You have one small hospital which has had a rise in cases but keeping health adults shut down in London as a result would be bonkers. And if you look at London in particular more people going back to work has not resulted in any rise in cases despite stories of people being crammed in tubes. In Europe, different people coming out of lockdown has coincided with the virus continuing to wane. A great many people - children included - are being harmed by lockdown. Not to mention it goes hugely against human nature to be isolated from one another and people are breaking lockdown of their own accord. The only way you can lockdown a Western country is if people comply - we don't have the police strength to enforce it. So it's better for the government to get moving with easing it rather than being shown up as having no control.

I for one can't carry on with lockdown. It is making me ill. I'm not bored, it's not just that I don't care about vulnerable people - I am going downhill fast. Lots of other people are in the same boat. It's not just the virus that does harm. That has to be taken into consideration.

well New Zealand have

For now.

This is a contagious virus which spreads silently thanks to many being asymptomatic. It is virtually impossible it won't spread there at some point. What will they do if any vaccine created isn't 100% effective (which is likely)? I guarantee they won't pour resources into contact tracing forever because it's expensive and there will be other priorities as the years go by. I would love to think they could stay virus free, I really would but it's highly unlikely. They might just have pushed some of their deaths down the road. I do agree that we should have tackled this very differently from January though - I think we could have saved a lot of lives.

It’s the economy, stupid

[quote Cornettoninja]Bread and circuses. It’s a tactic used since the romans.

people.howstuffworks.com/bread-circuses.htm[/quote]
Thank you for this. Never knew that and love to learn what phrases actually mean. I can't wait to explain this to DH later!

Alert level must be lower now surely, or is that the 5 tests we've met (apparently?).
Deaths and cases are definitely falling though.

New Zealand have pressed pause, they haven't eradicated it. All they will need is one person asymptomatic in to a community, natural R rate of 3 and boom....off you go again. New Zealand relies on tourism, it can't keep its 14 day quarintine in place for ever.

A vaccine isn't 100% I'm an example of that, I am not immune to rubella despite vaccination as a child MMR, and after DS I had a booster, because my bloodwork showed not immune to Rubella. I feel pregnant again had the blood work, not immune to rubella. I sadly lost he baby, but that's not the point. I can contract and pass on rubella unlike my friends where the vaccine has worked.

Governments no1 priority is the economy
We are a distant second

No. “We” are some people who don’t think they should go to work yet or don’t understand how the economy benefits everybody. If tax take is greatly reduced we have to borrow to afford this. The furlough scheme will cost around £80 billion. That alone is nearly half the annual NHS budget. “We” who think they are a distant second should pause for a moment and think where all this money is coming from. What damage is being done if no attempt is made to get working again? It’s a cost/benefit analysis and work and the economy are now worth the risk. Rightly so. We cannot close down forever. Or no NHS!!!

What we need is to start hearing from some other experts. Economists. Industrialists. Small business owners. Educators. Mental health experts.

And we need some more tests. Not just the 5 related to whether we have R below 1, saving the NHS etc, but “What % of GDP are we spending on this? What has happened to the tax take? What’s the U.K. credit rating? How do deaths from coronavirus prevented by these measures compare to deaths caused by poverty, mental health issues etc? What is each life saved costing and how does that compare to NICE guidance on funding other kids of medical care? What is this doing to unemployment? Trade? Balance of payments? What will this cost each person age 16 over the course of the rest of their lifetime?” How about some national surveys - choice experiments, that answer questions like “What amount of money will people spend, from their own pocket, to reduce their chance of death by 0.5% 1% etc? What about to save someone else? How does this compare to their actual observed behaviour re smoking, drinking, obesity etc?”

We need a far more balanced conversation than “we must save every possible life from covid”.

Vulnerable and at risk people can still self isolate. The rules are not forcing us all out

Self isolation is of limited use if infection levels are high because most vulnerable people either live with other people who need to work or need carers.

What did the Second World War cost me over my lifetime? Is that even relevant? No I would rather they did what they needed to do at the time

We have only just finished paying for that, over 70 years, time that saw massive improvements in people's health and life opportunities, not generations of people whose lives were ruined by that debt

Massive national debt is not in and of itself a massive problem

Because of the slightly artificial nature of money , national debt is not like household debt

And however much you tell people to go out back to work, if they don’t spend money because they are self isolating or want to protect the people they live with, the economy does not improve.

Bojo didnt think of all the pissed up Ninjas, having a BBQ next week, dancing in the lounge, Kareoke, staying over, the hangovers, the puking, the shared toilets, the eating & drinking out of hopefully not shared utensils, the "Oh I missed you" hugs

Well no he distinctly said six people outdoors and people who don’t live together still socially distant. Do you think everyone should stay locked in forever because some people are thick, stupid, selfish arseholes? Should the plan be based on the behaviour of the scum of the earth?

We need a far more balanced conversation than “we must save every possible life from covid”.

That isn’t the conversation though. The conversation is “why has the government abandoned targets that they set 2 weeks ago? - how will that encourage people to go out and start spending when it looks as though they don’t know what they are doing?”.

We differ in our belief of “what needs to be done. I don’t think this situation is remotely comparable to a world war or invasion by Nazis.

Well no he distinctly said six people outdoors and people who don’t live together still socially distant.

The problem is he also said “do what you like, all rules are open to interpretation, particularly the inconvenient ones”.

Yeah , covid could well kill more British people than the Nazis did

Last month the srandard was “is this the right thing to do to save lives?”. This month the standard is “would I b

Sorry - “would I be arrested”.

Why then has the government been allowed to ease measures when there is still a clear, identifiable risk to our health?

Who can disallow them? They are the government.

They’re going to get everything open ASAP and take their chances that the NHS won’t meltdown IMO.