Hypotheses - Rate of infection is too high. A second wave is inevitable.? I don't want a bun fight. Is it possible to discuss this constructively?,

[bumblingbovine49]

[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/28/coronavirus-infection-rate-too-high-second-wave]

This article summarises how I think things will go. The article suggests that track and trace on its own will.only stop about 15% of cases because our numbers are still so high.

I wanted to ask people who are really keen for things to go back to normal as quickly as possible ( which I completely understand , I am desperate for that too), would you be happy to have the things they are saying here such as compulsory PPE.for some workers , face coverings track and trace, self isolation if ill, restrictions on travel to other areas or.abroad etc ?

Does normal for you mean none of these things. Just literally go back.to what it was like before or do you think some of these things are necessary. Which if any would you comply with ? Should any of them be compulsory?

I really don't know the answer but I am worried that our excess death rate at the end of the year is going to.be phenomenal, we already have close to 60,000 excess deaths for this time.of year. That is one on a thousand EXTRA deaths in about 4 months . That seems a lot to.me.

I think the difficulty is that lockdown is not benign. It causes issues and harm of its own.

Chris Whitty has sad repeatedly throughout this crisis that there are potentially 4 causes of death during the epidemic:

1. people who die from COVID
2. people who die because the health service is overwhelmed (hopefully we have avoided these so far)
3. people who die as a direct result of the lockdown
4. people who die of other causes because they are afraid to seek medical treatment.

If your sole aim is to stop people dying of COVID then you would behave differently than if your aim was to minimise harm (including deaths) from all causes. I’m not saying I think the government have definitely got the balance right, only that it isn’t a simple choice.

Its impossible to discuss this constructively when, within the space of a few posts, insults are being slung like calling people "idiots" and "fucking thick"

Yep.

And it's not like those making these comments are renowned virologists. They're just as clueless as the rest of us. Forecasting endless doom and gloom doesn't neccessarily mean you're clever or superior.

The problem is that so much is unknown. Countries that are a few weeks ahead of us and have already relaxed lockdown haven't yet experienced a second wave, which is positive. Their infection rates may be lower than ours but it's certainly not been eliminated. Personally I find that more useful than various theoretical models of the virus (and I say that as an academic myself) because it's based on this actual virus and how it behaves in real life.

I think there may well be a second wave at some point. But when? Say it's in 6 months time, we can't stay locked down for 6 months for all sorts of reasons (economy, mental health etc). Better to open up now and then lockdown again in the future if necessary.

Yes absolutely, sunshine. Lockdown isn't neutral. There have been news stories throughout about the negative effects on children, cancer patients, domestic abuse victims, and the entire economy.

So it's a balance between two things that nobody wants. Nobody wants to get ill or die, and nobody wants the harmful effects of lockdown. So it's a tricky compromise at very best.

Unfortunately I think we have to learn to live with it. I can’t see any other way. I’m not dismissing potentially 100,000 additional deaths per year as anything other than a tragedy but what’s the alternative? Permanent changing to living like this forever .... a life with no gatherings of people, no arts, no theatre, kids in part time schooling fearful of playing or an acceptance that a new disease has arrived that you may die from.
I was bought up in Africa .... it is a fact of life there that 100,000’s will die from malaria every year. The only way not to is to stay inside, living under a net. That is unacceptable so people take anti-malaria tablets and spray themselves but know that it may not be enough.
I think we can become more aware about touching face with hands and washing hands at the end of every task, change of place etc but we have to accept that there is a new disease and it kills people

@IcedPurple

None of us are leading virologists, but the point is that OP posted an article written by an expert, and we’re discussing and resting on his informed claims...

Iced purple was referring to people slinging insults.

None of us are leading virologists, but the point is that OP posted an article written by an expert, and we’re discussing and resting on his informed claims

I'm not talking about the article. I'm talking about some of the comments here.

And while the author The Guardian article is indeed an expert, that doesn't automatically mean he's correct. There are many experts out there, and by no means all of them would agree with his take. The fact is nobody - even the most renowned experts - really knows what the future of this pandemic is, which makes some of the 'fucking thick' insults here rather inappropriate.

I dont see a second wave coming, I think we'll have bumps along the road. But I also think we'll get so much better at treating those who catch it, that deaths will continue to go down. And as with flu, some people will still die and some of those may have been previously healthy. But overall this will become another one of those viruses we live with, we treat effectively, and hopefully one day we can vaccinate against.

It's not a virus that is around every corner and I think that's where the struggle comes from. The government terrified us into lockdown, and now people see the virus in every gathering when the truth is you could have 300 people all together and not one of them have the virus.

@IcedPurple

Can you post links to experts who have given alternative takes and would disagree?

We're still heading towards our first peak here in north Wales and still in lockdown. We may well remain that way, who knows.

I think more peaks or waves are coming, yes. I think the only way we can lift lockdown is with restrictions such as social distancing measures, face coverings, and track and trace. No one wants this. But to pretend that we can just go back to normal one day is clearly head in the sand thinking.

I'm optimistic though and I think that vaccine or not we will all get normal life back relatively soon, just not this year.

I meant that to pretend we can all go back to normal one day immediately after lockdown is head in the sand! One day we will... I'm confusing myself now

I agree with Oysterbabe. I don't think there is going to be a second wave.
I think we do need to continue with social distancing, hygiene measures, etc, and personally I think face coverings should be mandatory on public transport and some other settings.This should be enough to continue reducing cases. There also needs to be a serious focus on infection control in care homes.
Within the general population I believe there should be a focus on improving our health/natural immunity, specifically increasing vit D levels, and eating a healthy diet/weight control. But I suspect many people don't want to hear the second part of that message.

I don’t understand why they Matt Hancock talks about local lockdowns while lifting lockdown globally???

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/hancock-local-lockdowns-will-be-used-to-suppress-infection

Have they not learnt from the slow initial reaction? Is it more effective to a) LIFT restrictions locally (ie in areas with low rate of infections and deaths)

b) lift restrictions globally and ONLY LOCK DOWN when number of infections reaches a certain threshold? Kinda obvious that in this case the number of infected will get a lot higher and people will then have to be locked down for longer to bring numbers down again.

I think we need to get back to reality asap. Social distancing as far as possible, handwashing, hand sanitisers. Personally I'm not going to be using public loos for a while.

I don't believe there will be a scary second wave, if there is it will be in January/February 2021

Sadly lifting local restrictions where I am will just mean loads of twats will pour in from other regions.

Locking down probably easier to enforce

Theoretically, even if case numbers fall to low numbers, 100 cases across the whole country for example, a second wave is possible because we know it's contagious with a long incubation period.

That said though, I also agree with @Oysterbabe I don't think we'll see a second wave anywhere near the magnitude of this one, maybe some small little increases here and there. There are still people who don't feel they need to lockdown or social distance, but I do genuinely think that a very very high percentage of the UK population are doing the right thing and understand the importance so based on that, the virus should fizzle out 🤞I am desperate for some normality now, I want to be back at work and to be able to see my family, but I do understand I have to take precautions to keep the spread of infection down, it's a collective effort

I also think that regional lockdowns would help of they were communicated and managed effectively

I have just come back from my local hospital, dd fractured leg. Was chatting to consultant about how busy they've been. He said all junior docs are now on medic wards, so fracture docs doing dble jobs. He said there will definitely be a second wave, his words 'sadly when it comes to pandemics, people don't learn until its too late'.

Has no one posted the Spanish flu graph yet?

I think I have more than half a brain, but I'm not sure how people can be so sure there will be a second wave.
No country has yet seen a second wave.
You can say we have unlocked earlier than them with higher infections, but no country has even seen a ripple so far.

Yes, there will be a second wave. The reason it hasn't happened yet is because we are still in the tail end of the first (which should seem obvious ). I work in infectious diseases, but not specifically with COVID but colleagues do. It was discussed at two meetings yesterday that current data is pointing to the second wave beginning end of June/early July. The reality is that we have to be cautious and while getting back to a little bit of normal life, people have to be sensible and do what is being asked of them to minimise the disruption.

We'd all be much better off trying to function normally but sensibly to get through this than everyone throwing themselves back into the pubs the second lockdown is lifted, causing a massive spike, which means we need to go into another period of lockdown. A slow simmer is better than a massive fire and ideally that's what the restrictions put in place should allow to happen, but nothing worse.

I'm guessing there will be a second wave for the reasons outlined in the article, lockdown wasn't firm enough or soon enough to bring the R rate down far enough that track and trace is useful. The government know this, so frankly I've stopped caring. There's no one actually effectively managing this situation so I accept whatever is going to happen will happen and all I can do is get on with life in the meanwhile.

Redolent here are some links www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8363101/The-UK-virtually-normal-August-says-ex-chief.html
www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/scientists-predict-exact-date-coronavirus-22073343

My head says "prepare for a second wave": current numbers are very similar to pre-lockdown numbers, we got an exponential rise then, we will get the same result again as lockdown gets lifted, since compliance with milder social distancing measures seems low.

My heart says "maybe the way the virus spread is somehow self-limiting in time, so wait and see" (this particular theory sounds like wishful thinking, but you never know!)

I will not live my life in fear etc.
A fair amount of people in this country seem to be ruled by their hearts. Like if you stand tall and stare the threat in the eyes, it will go away, or at least you're left with your honor intact.
Some other people are more pragmatic and flexible/imaginative: this is the new reality, how can I best adapt my life to it?
The two approaches are hard to reconcile... The second one requires a lot of maturity, humility and resilience. Qualities which are often in short supply, and often looked down upon but those advocating a more flamboyant attitude.

I won't live my life in fear, not because I think I can overpower a communicable disease, but because I think the statistical risk of me coming into close contact with an infectious person is low enough to consider a minimal threat.