Hypotheses - Rate of infection is too high. A second wave is inevitable.? I don't want a bun fight. Is it possible to discuss this constructively?,

[bumblingbovine49]

[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/28/coronavirus-infection-rate-too-high-second-wave]

This article summarises how I think things will go. The article suggests that track and trace on its own will.only stop about 15% of cases because our numbers are still so high.

I wanted to ask people who are really keen for things to go back to normal as quickly as possible ( which I completely understand , I am desperate for that too), would you be happy to have the things they are saying here such as compulsory PPE.for some workers , face coverings track and trace, self isolation if ill, restrictions on travel to other areas or.abroad etc ?

Does normal for you mean none of these things. Just literally go back.to what it was like before or do you think some of these things are necessary. Which if any would you comply with ? Should any of them be compulsory?


I really don't know the answer but I am worried that our excess death rate at the end of the year is going to.be phenomenal, we already have close to 60,000 excess deaths for this time.of year. That is one on a thousand EXTRA deaths in about 4 months . That seems a lot to.me.

[Northernsoulgirl45]

Marking place. Interesting thread.

[DoubleTweenQueen]

We're in a lull facilitated by lockdown. A low percentage of the population is estimated to have already been exposed to the virus. A thousand+ tested positive infections each day, showing the virus still in circulation. It is highly contagious and many are taking little to no precautions. I would say a second wave of infection inevitable. Test & trace essential to try and keep a lid on it. We haven't booked any holidays.

[wintertravel1980]

It does beg the question, though, why England's figures are so much worse than Scotland?

Hmm.... actually, England's figures vary by region. South West and London are not far off from Scotland. Deaths have been very low since the beginning of June.

Here are the estimates of new daily cases from Zoe Covid app. There are quite a few limitations with this data but it provides useful directional real time view.

[effingterrified]

I'm very, very happy to be proved wrong on Scotland.

It does beg the question, though, why England's figures are so much worse than Scotland?

What is Scotland doing right that England is clearly doing wrong?

Also, get back to me in or after the winter and tell me there is no second wave. I really hope that no second wave emerges, but it's a bit early to say that yet.

[Derbygerbil]

@Oysterbabe

True, but it’s not the time for a premature victory dance either.

[Oysterbabe]

29/05/2020 10:03 effingterrified

It will be worth revisiting this thread in a month to 6 weeks.

I suspect all those claiming there would be no second wave will be strangely absent then.

@effingterrified

Well here we are 1 month on. Deaths and infections continue to fall, no deaths in Scotland for 3 days, some experts predicting none anywhere by September. I'm sure you're happy to be wrong.

Time for those intent on doom and gloom to give a rest perhaps?

[effingterrified]

ClientQ - don't think there was any suggestion that the poster I was discussing was shielding?

[NeurotrashWarrior]

The biggest issue with schools is the space and staffing. It's pure logistics.

[Namenic]

It will be interesting to see whether the economies which improve are those which took sensible measures - locked down early, did not exit lockdown too early - fewer cases, less expensive to treat etc... jury is still out as has to be balanced against less spending etc, but I suspect NZ, aus, germany, Baltic states will end up less affected economically than uk.

[Sunshinegirl82]

Damage resulting from lockdown is not limited to access to medical care. There was a study done near the start of the pandemic which showed that if GDP dropped by more than 6.5% the resulting damage to health and life expectancy caused would wipe out the benefits of lockdown. It’s really not straightforward and there is no obviously “right” answer.

[ClientQ]

@effingterrified none of those shielding, including children were meant to be outside for exercise. The letters were v clear on that so not everyone was allowed out for walks

[Namenic]

Doesn’t necessarily preclude ‘elective’ medical treatments

[pfrench]

i would be in favour of no mass gatherings, social distancing when inside shops and workplaces

schools to all return as normal

Schools are mass gatherings. Schools are workplaces that 'can't' do social distancing.

Hope that helps you revise your super idea.

[Namenic]

@Drivingdownthe101 - the area where your mum lives sounds like a good place to pilot lifting restrictions - with experts scrutinising numbers, high availibility testing. Why would we treat it the same as places listed a couple of pages back with hundreds of infections per 100,000? I think more local freedom is more important than being able to travel >50miles away.

Yes lockdown has costs, but some conditions can be mitigated, deaths can’t. With cancer - yes some are having treatment delays, but others on chemo are at higher risk/palliative chemo stopped. Again keeping lockdown does not preclude treatments.

[NeurotrashWarrior]

But the message that "most below 50 are fine" results in thinking you are completely fine when there are a lot of incidents where although not hospitalised or dead, people are being left with long term damage including neurological issues.

And those who are hospitalised and recover need lengthy rehabilitation.

[NeurotrashWarrior]

Toddler finger slippage

[NeurotrashWarrior]

You need a whole country to mask up so that on those Days 1-5 there is minimal spread.

Totally agree.

There are shades of grey with all of this. My own gp told me that it's a weird and nasty disease where 90 yr olds with fibrosis of the lungs are recovering and younger people are hit badly. That's a very uncommon example obviously. But the message that "most below 50 are fine" results in too much relaxation

[Drivingdownthe101]

Even my 65 year old MIL (in Spain, so had the ‘proper, army enforced lockdown’ that so many were calling for on here) has lost mobility and fitness in lockdown. She used to go to the gym 5 days a week, but was stuck in an apartment with a tiny balcony for 9 weeks.

[Al1Langdownthecleghole]

Effing MIL lives alone and pre-lockdown would walk to her local shop most days, see friends and family regularly and get a bus to the next Town most weeks.

She didn't "exercise" she just got on with stuff. Now she has her food delivered and has already said that she won't get on a bus again. Her confidence has evaporated and she has visibly aged. I'm very fearful that her life will be shorter (and less rich) as a result.

Similar will be true of other older people, who are being denied the opportunity to live an active later life.

[HeatherIV]

10% of infected people are responsible for 80% of the spread.

The various lockdown methods don't seem to have actually made much difference to infection rate, death rate and r rate.

The virus is not dangerous to the vast majority of the population.

The gov are now just locking down the vulnerable - which in my opinion was what we should have done in the first place.

We still don't really know how to stop the virus and so we're going to just let the young and healthy catch it - as it's not a sever illness for the vast majority. If that doesn't work and the hospitals get overwhelmed we'll go into lockdown again. But I don't think that will happen.

The excess deaths are a direct result of lockdown. Around 20,000 more than covid deaths. That's people not going to hospital for life saving care because they are too scare of covid. That's people having ops cancelled, treatment cancelled. That's people killing themselves, kids or partners because of the pressure of lockdown. That's people dying of loneliness. That excess death figure is why we need the lockdown to end. Nearly as many are dying due to lockdown than from covid.

[cathyandclare]

Totally agree about the elderly well. My parents and in-laws are fit, well and in their eighties. Regular golf, holidays, bridge and very active socially. Before lockdown they all looked and acted like people 15 years younger.

Function is often about 'using it or losing it'. FIL, in particular, has been visibly diminished by lockdown. He appears slower, slightly hunched and less sharp.

[rhubarbfizzy]

And that masking includes all settings, including all carers.

Go and take a recce in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan or Seoul or Vietnam if you are unsure how it works

[rhubarbfizzy]

It seems the virus particles themselves may be mini-miniscule but they spread by water droplets when we speak, sing, cough and so the mask gets in the way.

[rhubarbfizzy]

It’s actually not that complicated (if you learned from SARS).

You are v v contagious on Days 1-5 when you don’t have symptoms. That’s invisible. 8 out of 10 no symptoms but for the other 2 of 10 ....

It’s a vicious, grotesque and weird virus that, globally, top doctors agree is horrible and for many lasting or deadly. We don’t have a vaccine.

You need a whole country to mask up so that on those Days 1-5 there is minimal spread.

[Drivingdownthe101]

She didn’t go out to exercise, she went out to buy her meat from the butchers and chat to her friends. She would sit down in the library with a glass of water before walking home, or sit in the charity shop to have a chat. As all the benches near her were taped up and the shops closed she wasn’t able to stop for her rest and continue walking. 2 miles is a long way for an 87 year old if they can’t stop and rest en route.
But you know that.