Hypotheses - Rate of infection is too high. A second wave is inevitable.? I don't want a bun fight. Is it possible to discuss this constructively?,

[bumblingbovine49]

[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/28/coronavirus-infection-rate-too-high-second-wave]

This article summarises how I think things will go. The article suggests that track and trace on its own will.only stop about 15% of cases because our numbers are still so high.

I wanted to ask people who are really keen for things to go back to normal as quickly as possible ( which I completely understand , I am desperate for that too), would you be happy to have the things they are saying here such as compulsory PPE.for some workers , face coverings track and trace, self isolation if ill, restrictions on travel to other areas or.abroad etc ?

Does normal for you mean none of these things. Just literally go back.to what it was like before or do you think some of these things are necessary. Which if any would you comply with ? Should any of them be compulsory?


I really don't know the answer but I am worried that our excess death rate at the end of the year is going to.be phenomenal, we already have close to 60,000 excess deaths for this time.of year. That is one on a thousand EXTRA deaths in about 4 months . That seems a lot to.me.

[stairway]

I think there will be a second wave around November time. Things will have got back to normal by then, the cold weather means that people will be inside more helping the spread. There will also be hundreds of other cold and flu viruses circulating and people will not be able to tell the difference.

[Flaxmeadow]

It's not a virus that is around every corner and I think that's where the struggle comes from. The government terrified us into lockdown, and now people see the virus in every gathering when the truth is you could have 300 people all together and not one of them have the virus.

It kind of was "around every corner" in March and April though and what could have happened was terrifying

We need to remember that half a million people would have died in the UK alone by now without a lockdown and 8 million people would have been mildly (mild as in compared to not requiring hospital treatment) or seriously ill. This is rarely mentioned in these debates but is a sobering thought

The point of the lockdown is to prevent health services being overwhelmed in a short space of time. To spread it out longer so that more lives can be saved. To flatten the curve. This is the aim of all countries. Our government has not done things much differently to most other western countries.

[LivinLaVidaLoki]

@Redolent
Maria Neira of the WHO gave an interview earlier this week where she said a second wave was looking unlikely.

[ITonyah]

Tbf the WHO hasn't been correct about this virus on many occasions

[Mrhodgeymaheg]

My guess is it is likely but maybe less severe. The thing is, we can't just destroy everything for the next couple of years waiting for a vaccine or an effective treatment, I think a lot of people are deeply naïve about the damage that will cause, not just to the economy, but to people's physical and mental health. Having to educate one child and emotionally neglect the other who is only 13 months old due to needing to work FT and teach has brought me to tears and made me feel very low a lot of the time, so no we can't continue like this, but I think we do need to take some precautions in busy places that are indoors, and clearly mass gatherings are not a good idea.

It is very easy to say we should carry on as we are if you don't work, have grown up children or are being paid by the government for not working. Very different if you are both keyworkers working FT and need to do your job, teaching and everything else. The ignorance of some people in understanding how hard it has been for some people and why they might need some normality back is astonishing.

My guess there will be local lockdowns in a run up to a full nationwide lockdown over Christmas Dec/Jan as there will most likely be flu circulating too. I heard that hospitals are expecting things to pick up again around October time, but that is just what I heard, so not sure how true it is.

[LivinLaVidaLoki]

Sorry increasingly looking unlikely.
Personally I don't think there will be a second wave, I think there will be bumps along the way, but I dont expect a wave.

I think the thing a lot of people find very confusing is that there are so many experts with so many opinions, its very much "pick your expert pick your outcome" which I do believe the media are exploiting either for clicks or to fit their own agenda.

[deydododatdodontdeydo]

@MorrisZapp

I won't live my life in fear, not because I think I can overpower a communicable disease, but because I think the statistical risk of me coming into close contact with an infectious person is low enough to consider a minimal threat.

Exactly!
Many people just called you stupid for simple risk analyses.

[Redolent]

@LivinLaVidaLoki

Thanks for the mention. I hope she’s right.

[Flaxmeadow]

I won't live my life in fear, not because I think I can overpower a communicable disease, but because I think the statistical risk of me coming into close contact with an infectious person is low enough to consider a minimal threat.

But it isn't just about you and whether you will catch the virus. It's about everyone you come into contact with, and who they come into contact and so on

[ITonyah]

But it isn't just about you and whether you will catch the virus. It's about everyone you come into contact with, and who they come into contact and so on

Well, using that logic no-one should ever leave their homes again.

[MorrisZapp]

Well obviously. But I can't pass on the virus if I don't have it. And I think that the risk of me catching it and carrying it is very low at present.

[ITonyah]

Apparently there is more chance of being stung by a bee than walking past someone with Covid 19 where we live.

[Anise7438]

The WHO are saying a second wave looks less likely?

[Mbc124]

Has any country experienced this second wave that keeps being talked about? I haven’t seen much evidence of it.

We can’t all stay in forever. It’s time to being this to an end now, get everyone back to work and school and see what happens. Just keep common sense in mind.

[ITonyah]

Singapore?

[Moondust001]

Nobody has a clue what will happen. It's all guesswork. Remember the headlines about 500,000 deaf in the UK? That was experts, that was. And those experts (all men I recall) rounded with a vengeance on the Oxford woman professor who said possibly around 30- 50,000, but accepted that everyone was giving it a best guess. Who was closer?

I also don't believe any evidence has been provided to show that this virus is going to be significantly worse than many other things we routinely shrug off without a moment's thought. So I think there is sense in being careful- but seriously, who needed to be told that washing your hands was a good thing or that you should cover your mouth when coughing or sneezing? We should have been doing those things forever. But I don't think the world can afford another lockdown, and I think that if there is a second wave, which I am not convinced about (some of those experts are predicting this will burn out) we are going too have to learn to take it in our stride just like flu and all those other things we forget are also potentially deadly.

For me this had been a wake up call to the world that us humans are not as in control as we arrogantly like to think we are, and I think that's scared people far more than the virus!

[Flaxmeadow]

Has any country experienced this second wave that keeps being talked about? I haven’t seen much evidence of it.

It's too early to tell

China only started lifting its lockdown about 4 weeks ago?

[Flaxmeadow]

Nobody has a clue what will happen. It's all guesswork. Remember the headlines about 500,000 deaf in the UK? That was experts, that was. And those experts (all men I recall) rounded with a vengeance on the Oxford woman professor who said possibly around 30- 50,000, but accepted that everyone was giving it a best guess. Who was closer

Again this completely misses the point

The numbers you are quoting was what could/would have happened WITHOUT a lockdown

The "reasonable" estimate is that without a lockdown half a million people would have died

[thatwouldbeanecumenicalmatter]

its very much "pick your expert pick your outcome" which I do believe the media are exploiting either for clicks or to fit their own agenda.

Definitely

[Pertella]

It's too early to tell

So how long do we take?

We were supposed to get a spike after easter weekend. Hasnt happened yet.

Then it was VE day that was definitely going to do it.

Now apparently 4 weeks isnt enough to tell.

So how long does it take, and how are we supposed to tell if we dont ease restrictions in the first place?

[Namenic]

Depends on what you term second wave:
www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/south-korea-social-distancing-reintroduce-covid-19-12777958

In Korea they are seeing increase in cases after restrictions relaxed a few weeks ago - in a country which has v good testing. If we are not sure/not enough evidence, surely the lesson from UKs initial failures is to be CAUTIOUS?!

UK is lifting restrictions with higher infection rate than S Korea, with poorer testing and tracing facilities. Does not sound like a good idea - pretty risky, just like waiting to shut borders/require quarantine/lockdown.

[Namenic]

I am not afraid to go out because I am in a low risk demographic. However I know people who are at risk or shielding and I think the the lifting of restrictions could be managed in a better way to reduce risk of second lockdown and reduce infections/deaths.

[Flaxmeadow]

So how long do we take?

No one is sure. Covid19 is a brand new disease.

The virus was only named on the 7th of January. China shared the genome with the rest of the world on the 11th of January. Diagnosis in China was introduced on the 17th of February, around the same time as the first major spike in deaths in China.

The virus, in China, took from December or possibly earlier, to mid February until they saw a significant surge in deaths. It could have been spreading for 3 months before.

We were supposed to get a spike after easter weekend. Hasnt happened yet.

Were we? I've not seen anything about this

Then it was VE day that was definitely going to do it.

Some newspapers speculated that there might be a small spike

Now apparently 4 weeks isnt enough to tell.

How long do you think it should take for the worlds best scientists to know about this brand new virus ?

So how long does it take, and how are we supposed to tell if we dont ease restrictions in the first place?

No one knows. There are no quick answers or solutions

[Namenic]

So how long does it take, and how are we supposed to tell if we dont ease restrictions in the first place?

One way of telling would be to restrict long-distance travel. Start lifting restrictions in local areas with low infection and concentrate test/trace in these areas and monitor.