4043 cases today

[Realitea]

Is this high because more people are being tested? Or because we’ve had a bank holiday? Or because people are flouting the rules?
That’s a very sharp rise

Where is that figure coming from? I had seen 2004 for today in the department of health and social care tweet?

The cases are back dated, some kind of data adjustment - we had one the opposite way recently . The like for like day count is just over 2000. It does mean the rolling average cases was understated a bit previously and now corrected is slightly higher but still coming down for now.

Where have you seen that? DHSC says 2004.

Here is the tweet

I only checked worldometer sorry. Very relieved it’s not that high

Its a data adjustment backdated over weeks, not a new jump. It's basically 2,000 new cases from the testing done very recently, plus another 2000 they hadn't processed from all the previous testing. Data for these comes in from a variety of sources with a variety of timeframes so sometimes (like the deaths the other day) It needs adjusting.

Typical incubation time is 5-6 days (range 2-14)

So it depends a bit on whether people are getting tested as soon as symptoms show, or if they wait a bit. Typical time from onset to hospitalisation is 6-7 days.

So for an increase (if it's genuinely an increase, not a post Bank holiday backlog coming through the system) would reflect infections anywhere from 1-3 weeks ago

We need to see if the numbers stay high for several days, before it'll be possible to tell if this is a real rise or just one of the jaggedy teeth on the line

Turns out they have been double counting tests carried out so who knows what the actual figures are...

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/

I notice that they are testing more and more. EG footballers are getting tested and a very large % had it - more than you would expect considering that they haven't played matches for months. Some of the footballers tested eg a Bournemouth player didn't even realise he had it (fit young man no symptoms at all).

I find this positive since many people may have had this during the peak and not realised it at all so MAYBE the % of people that have already had it is much higher than assumed?

@pennylane83 DHSC do show that data. There is a number for tests done and a number of actual people tested which is normally lower.

Uk numbers will probably jump up as Scotland have announced that from Thursday all the population are to book a test if they have symptoms and tests will be offered to all those that person has had contact with that could have contracted it.

That doesn't mean more people than before have it after this jump it just means that there are more test results to collate and so the data will shift.

Like others have said I think there are many reasons for fluctuations in results but one of them will be as time goes on our test capacity is rising (like will be in the case soon in Scotland) so that will look like sharp rises in numbers depending on positive results.

@pennylane83 PHE show the number of tests and the number of people tested. Two entirely different figures.

"find this positive since many people may have had this during the peak and not realised it at all so MAYBE the % of people that have already had it is much higher than assumed?"

They've done sampling of representative samples of the populations n, and most recent estimates have 17% of Londoners withbanyibidies, somwephat lower in other regions.

So that's over 80% of the population yet to have it.

(And quality/duration of immunity also yet to be established)