If R Goes above 1 we won't be lockdowned again

[Lifejacket]

What are people's thoughts on what will come next? With schools going back (eventually but obviously planned by the gov), the gov meeting to discuss unlocking more, people out and about anyway etc and the virus still in the community I can't see how R won't rise again. We've been told that r gas to stay below 1 in order to manage the virus but if it's currently between .7 and 1 now and we're unlocking further it's going to creep up. I can't picture the government ordering lockdown again even by area. So where does that leave us, are we now at a point where if you know you're high risk you just gave to stay in and everyone just keeps their fingers crossed that it's ok and we just get on? Does anyone think winter will make a difference? Just looking to read others views and a few ideas.

I can't imagine the compliance rate would be anywhere near as high if they locked down again - but could order schools/shops/etc to shut to force as much as possible. I suspect we would just enter a new period of being expected to live with it, with anyone vulnerable advised to isolate (but without any legal protection to their employment).

I'm going to be pedantic and tell you it's locked down.

If i were the Government and R increased to above 1, I’d try and focus my efforts on what i believed was causing it, rather than lock down.

I’m increasingly of the mind that lockdown was excessive, even if it was nonetheless necessary...

To use an analogy, it was a bit like being a new driver encountering snow for the first time.... You’re driving along at 70mph and snow starts and you slide around, so you slow right down to 5mph to regain control and take stock as you don’t what, if any speed is safe in these new conditions that you’ve never before experienced!

Only once you’ve done this can you steadily increase speed to the level you can still drive safely, say 30mph... Still slow but a load faster than 5mph! However, if you find you’re beginning to slide a bit at 30mph, you don’t immediately reduce right back to 5mph, you take it down back to, say, 25mph and see how that goes.... People might say... you could have slowed down to 25mph straight away - going to 5mph was unnecessary!... but how would you have known?

And so it is. or should be, with lockdown and moving forwards....

@Doyoumind yes pedantic in it's proper meaning. No prize for spotting any 5pelling or grammer mistakes. {wink}

I dont know about above 1 exactly but if the numbers explode then yes, I can definitely see a further lockdown.

Why wouldn't there be if the NHS gets close to being overwhelmed?

I don't think our next peak will be anywhere near as bad (this is based on optimism rather than science). I think before the first one right up until the the pubs shut there was an element of doubt about how bad this would actually be despite there being plenty of evidence from Italy and Spain.
These last few months have been a valuable lesson.

It should be lockdown. I bet they start talking about regional R numbers now London is fine though. They will want to get the capital back up and running.

What I mean is that will have greatest impact on the economy and that is firmly where their focus is now.

I don’t think we’d be locked down again. I mean France had a very strict lockdown yet still have 28,000 deaths. Italy and Spain had stricter lockdowns but still have 32,000 + deaths each.

If the track and trace is successful I don’t think we will.

Considering we haven’t properly been locked down this time then no we won’t be locked down again.

Obviously we should be locked down harder as:

1. Apparently there would only be 8,500 dead if we'd locked down a week earlier

So EVERY day we lock down we prevent death

Lockdown is a blunt instrument but it has been the only one we had. Going forward we have to hope some of the more targeted measures like test, track and trace, improved knowledge of which settings are the riskiest etc help us to avoid having to use such a blunt instrument again.

If infection rates are really rising though, some things lock themselves down through reduced custom, staff illness etc. No way around that, though testing can help reduce staff absent just due to suspected covid.

LaurieFairyCake.
You do understand that lockdown was to slow the virus contagion so that we could manage it don't you?
Where did the 8500 no come from?
Very evidently every lock down day we do not prevent deaths either from Covid,delayed treatments (due to people fearing going to hospitals or delay on going diagnosis)or because people do die.
We can't lock down for ever.People may not die of Covid if we do but lack of money to put a roof over your head or food on the table for those loosing their jobs left ,right and centre will cause far more problems.
Be happy in fairyland.

Where did I get it from?

THE TELEGRAPH

www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/20/earlier-lockdown-could-have-prevented-three-quarters-uk-coronavirus/amp/

The R rate is creeping up again in Luton and in parts of Manchester and I don't think anybody cares anymore.

As necessary as the lockdown has been, I don't think people in general will be obeying further lockdowns. Not to the same extent at least.

It's a matter of life and death and a life choice to risk it and hope for the best. People are getting in debt.

So where does that leave us, are we now at a point where if you know you're high risk you just gave to stay in and everyone just keeps their fingers crossed that it's ok and we just get on?

Exactly that

So where does that leave us, are we now at a point where if you know you're high risk you just gave to stay in and everyone just keeps their fingers crossed that it's ok and we just get on?

..pretty much, it seems. Makes sense too, for high risk to lockdown while others try and keep country running to some degree. No point everyone in lockdown because some are high risk (said as someone with a very hgh risk person in family)

Have seen a fair few high risk people saying its unfair to expect them to stay in while others live their lives. Apparently people who want this are selfish. To me, those thinking everyone else should stay in because they are high risk..is more selfish? But apparently thats an unpopular opinion and again, is a selfish way of thinking

IDK. Lockdown indefinitely is undoable though, and I doubt many would listen if told to strictly lockdown after a taste of freedom tbh. Not whe death rates seem so 'low' (I know they aren't low, but, they seem very low numbers to basically have the whole world on hold)

I can foresee issues keeping my family member locked down though while everyone else is out. Of course its ultimately down to her as she is an adult. But I would like it if she kept inside a bit longer..if not though, not much I can do about it. And I don't think everyone should be made to stay in simply because she won't want to stay in while others are out tbh.

That's the thing about exponential growth, one day the figures seem 'low', the next all hell breaks loose. Not literally next day but you know what I mean. Everything looks ok to most people until all of a sudden it doesn't, and then it's too late.

That's what scares me about people deciding what to do esp if vulnerable. We might at any moment be at a point where infection rates and case numbers are rising again and we might not know until it is too late and we have already been exposed.

There can't be another hard lockdown when it doesn't kill most and especially the young. It doesn't sit well, but that's what will happen. Funny, you're not mandated to vaccinate your kids against measles, which has a terrifying R rate and is aerosoled and every year we have more and more outbreaks of measles, but C19 and everyone has to lock up. It won't work.

Even if they decide to lockdown again I doubt people will comply, so I don't see the point of another. People know the risks but continue to go out and to beaches and have parties etc.

If they lockdown again the same rule breakers will keep rule breaking and the same suffering souls will continue to lockdown.

If everyone was complying with lockdown then the infection/death rate etc would be a lot lower.

They might keep schools shut and shops/pubs shut but they won't lock down again. I just can't see it. Especially after recent events, no one will take it seriously.

Lockdowns were never to eradicate the virus. We live with them all the time, and other communicable diseases, some of which can't be treated well or are often resistant to treatment. Life goes on. This is going nowhere. But now we'll get a global recession, perhaps even a depression. Joy! See how well people comply with another lockdown when the virus has a very great survival rate and they're starving after also crashing out of the EU and unable to find any work. Oh, and 10 years of cutting the police forces and military. That's going to go over like a lead balloon!