If R Goes above 1 we won't be lockdowned again

[Lifejacket]

What are people's thoughts on what will come next? With schools going back (eventually but obviously planned by the gov), the gov meeting to discuss unlocking more, people out and about anyway etc and the virus still in the community I can't see how R won't rise again. We've been told that r gas to stay below 1 in order to manage the virus but if it's currently between .7 and 1 now and we're unlocking further it's going to creep up. I can't picture the government ordering lockdown again even by area. So where does that leave us, are we now at a point where if you know you're high risk you just gave to stay in and everyone just keeps their fingers crossed that it's ok and we just get on? Does anyone think winter will make a difference? Just looking to read others views and a few ideas.

Because now that’s about the rules were wrong and Cummings was right to break them. As such he shouldn’t have been fired he has simply exposed the government was wrong.

They've been wrong from the outset and he was right to break them, but unfortunately he was one of the chief architects of lockdown so I have no mercy (as a right of centre Conservative Brexiteer - this is not politically motivated).

Its worth watching what's happening in Europe - countries are slowly coming out of lockdown step by step, and - generally - there's been no flare-ups. So, it looks as if a cautious approach can work. If numbers seem to be going up a bit, then surely you just stick at the stage of lockdown that you're at for a bit longer? So, non-essential shops and hairdressers don't open at the start of July, but wait until the end of the month for example?

I don’t think we will lock down again either. They’ve set up knightingale hospitals across the country that haven’t really been used. My theory - for what it’s worth - is that they built those in preparation for a second peak so that they could separate the covid cases and normal NHS hospitals will be able to continue to operate and not have to cancel cancer treatments and operations etc. Again, just my observations and I could be wrong.

Dominic Cummings is ‘some bloke‘, who wields a great amount of power in our government. That’s the problem. Know one really knows who the hell he is or why he’s so powerful. But the least he could do was act with a tiny bit of responsibility in a global pandemic.

Op I agree. I can’t see how they can possibly ask us to strictly lock down again. It’s done. People were twitchy before about there being one rule for the wealthy and powerful and one rule for everyone else before this debacle. Now it will make the government look incredibly stupid if they ask us to make those sacrifices again. I suspect that lots of the rich and powerful haven’t been following the ‘rules’. I saw a certain ex chancellor walking round a country estate near me with a group of 5 other people when we’re were supposed to be strictly locked down. They certainly weren’t 2 meters apart.

@MaudesMum

Europe by enlarge have far lower death and new infection rates, we are where Italy was about a month ago.
The UK opening up and easing restriction is madness, there are 10s of 1000s of new infections in the UK every week and with no real strategy to combat this, we will go into winter with large community spread.
There is a trac n trace app widely used, developed with Google and Apple, we are still trialing our unique UK only one, the project now headed by a former talktalk CEO once described as woefully ignorant after one of the countries biggest data breaches.

My fear is the UK will remain in partial restriction and the rest of europe will be enjoying their summer and lives with little disruption.

Either way, I think it's going to be a case of trial and error.

I'd like details of restrictions made clearer and if broken more fines, as some people have clearly been misunderstanding or not caring, and that makes it harder on the rest of us if numbers go up due to their actions.

Yes if he'd been fired that would have sent the right message. But what they've said is he did the right thing and the risk was low. And it was never "against the rules" as the rest of the population seemed to think it was.
Therefore it's OK for the rest of us to do, and is equally low risk.

I think if there is another lock down, it will be in the winter.
If the track and trace system is in place and working as it should, we might just have to live with the virus in the community for now.
If we can track where the virus is quickly and isolate those people, there’s no need for a mass lockdown.
The problem would be if the r number starts to rise too fast. But watching other countries, this doesn’t appear to be happening.
Remember, it’s all about hospital space and them being able to cope, so if there are lots of community cases but they are mild, not requiring hospital, I think we will just carry on.
The problem could be as winter hits. Hospitals are always busier, cold and flu season starts and with this virus on top of that it could get overwhelmed pretty fast.

Does anybody know where we find the R number for our area?

When people say ‘a stricter lockdown’, do they mean no exercise/children not allowed out of the house as per Spain and Italy?

I agree with what Maud is saying, there is a month by month plan is there not and only if 5 things are met. Meaning if not we stick at the other point. Giving a month to see the affects

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/11/what-is-covered-in-the-uk-governments-lockdown-easing-plan

FergusSingsTheBlues I'm not sure you can. I think the R is regional, but the covid dashboard has tests and deaths for each local authority area

I wholly agree with Bluntness100. I am, it seems, one of the very few teachers who thinks reopening schools is the right thing to do. Some of the propaganda coming from the Unions and schools at the moment is shameful. To suggest that vital medication would not be administered, or that a child would be left in soiled clothing in the event of a toileting accident is beyond belief. The further education institution I work for intends reopening after half term despite current lack of directive from the Government to this effect. I assume that as a free academy our head can make this decision? Anyway, for once I agree with their decision. We all need to get back to some sort of normality before what’s left of our economy is completely irrecoverable.

If everyone was complying with lockdown then the infection/death rate etc would be a lot lower.

Why do people say rubbish on these threads with such confidence?

Community infection is low. The vast majority of current cases and recent deaths are from care homes and hospitals.

there is also talk of locking down some areas if it gets bad again such as worst hit areas as well, while letting other areas go on.

Exponential growth is

Hopefully there will be better diagnosis and contact tracing, with the temporary closure for cleaning of affected workplaces and schools/classes, and isolation of specific people, instead. There may well be fines and criminal offences for those refusing to comply, and fines for businesses failing to prevent large breakouts of the virus. I doubt nightclubs will be allowed to open for a very long time, given the fact they seem to be responsible for rapid spread even in places like South Korea, which is best placed as a country to know what the problem behaviours and activities are!

I think this will become more of an issue in winter - people may be happy to meet outside, even work outside and learn outside in the summer, but the same does not apply in the autumn and winter.

But lock down was to ease the strain on the hospitals and staff. If everyone got it at once, fewer could be treated and recover, if people get it in a slow and steady amount then hospitals can cope and more people recover.

So right now there’s room in hospitals and isolation is being eased. If they get overwhelmed again then some kind of isolation will be reimplemented. That’s the point of lockdown. They’re testing it now with the schools to see what the Next spread will be like. Most people who get it get it mildly, (I say that as someone who’s family caught it and who has lost an elderly family member to it so please don’t think I’m being cavalier) the vulnerable were told to shield for 16 weeks and that has not been relaxed at all. For people of average health things are being relaxed because the hospitals could cope with them getting sick. The unpack of this will last for years and perhaps cause some permanent changes in society. We need to make sure people can be treated so the maximum recover, but also not allow too many long term adverse effects to society, the economy and other treatments and health issues which still need treatment.

Why do people say rubbish on these threads with such confidence?

It's obvious from data on areas which had the least compliance. Care homes are slightly removed from the equation.

It's not rubbish; it's part of the very complex picture.

For example, Schools won't operate in half the staff are off ill. The illness can last 8 weeks or more. That won't trigger a lockdown but in order to maintain childcare for KW, areas may have to close schools.

It's not just about deaths.

Oh, and physical distancing will still apply, but the distance may shrink. Physical distancing means life will not return to normal for a long time.

For a further lockdown to be effective, we'd have to effectively create a police state to enforce it. When the government advisors who wrote the rules demonstrate that it's not necessary to follow them, why would anyone else?

I've been fairly relaxed up to now. I think "enough" people have followed the rules, but I am genuinely scared for the second peak now.

Is doubling every few days. Before lockdown it was every three days. It takes an incredibly short time to reach a million people infected from where we are now.

I think anti body testing is showing about 5% have had it?

If the virus was left to reach a natural peak it would be every person for themselves. People would not go to work in any sector and I don't blame them. It would post apocalyptic emerging from that, would make emerging from lockdown look like a picnic.

Singapore, South Korea & Japan have had rolling control measures (sometimes including lockdown) imposed lifted re-imposed lifted again etc. I don't see why we wouldn't fall into that pattern, too.

What’s the R rate now?