Am i being thick?If the first reported uk case was on jan 31st then it was here from dec/early jan then?

[Wankerchief]

Ive just read that the first confirmed case was on the 31st of jan (wiki and news sites)
Going on the two/three week incubation does that mean there was many people in Late Dec/early Jan that had it but had. No symptoms or just thought they had flu?

Dp says no but i cannot see how it cant of been here then but I've got nothing to me up

VenusTiger I think she will have an antibody test as soon as one is available. She has quite fragile health, is isolating, and would probably need one for work anyway.

Interestingly she lives just outside York and works with a lot of imported products...

First known case (ie. admitted to hospital) in France was on 2nd December. So we can probably work roughly on the same timeline for the UK.

It does seem that there was something pretty nasty going around with respiratory symptoms in January time. I was bent double coughing at one point and joked that it was Coronavirus. I doubt it was though, to be honest, although DH wants to take an antibody test as he had similar symptoms. I know a few people who also think they have had it so I reckon there must have been something pretty similar doing the rounds.

We've not long heard the truth about the Nike conference - maybe there were other cases that they're not telling us about? It doesn't seem that the government have taken the wisest course at any point, so it's not outwith the realms of possibility?

Surely the theory of viral load means time could have amped up how ill people would get, like an avalanche effect?

Interesting theory, and kind of makes sense. It would be interesting to hear an epidemiologist’s
view on that and whether that’s credible.

Surely now antibody tests are readily available, it can’t be long at all before we know one way or the other with certainty whether it was widespread before the current scientific consensus believes it was. The fact there have been no reports (that I’m aware of) of anyone, let alone hundreds/thousands, testing positive for antibodies who had Covid symptoms in December (and didn’t in March), indicates it can’t have been widespread back then....

Even if a few are reported, in small numbers they don’t mean anything as someone could have been ill with the flu in December, but asymptomatic with Covid in April.

First known case (ie. admitted to hospital) in France was on 2nd December. So we can probably work roughly on the same timeline for the UK.

It was actually 27 December

Im convinced we hit the second wave in late March. We’re in London and DH and I were both ill in February. DH had the cough, temperature and headache and I had the worst cold symptoms I’ve ever experienced with a temperature, loss of taste (metallic mouth) an awful headache and fatigue. FIL was also very ill over Christmas with cough, temperature, loss of taste and smell and fatigue. We all commute into London for work.

I had an illness in early December that had all the markers of coronavirus.

But then so do a lot of illnesses so I guess I will never know!

Doesn't Covid present very usually on an X-ray though?

Don't they xray most Pneumonia patients?

My dd's school was shut in December to a mysterious high temp/coughing bug but it could have been anything I guess.

If this is the second wave and the first wave was in December/January then that would fit with the deaths we are having now.

The antibody tests should confirm this one way or the other... But as there was no brake on the virus in January, there’s no reason for it to have mysteriously stopped spreading - it would be like a jug of spilt milk returning to the jug of its own accord.

Should say look unusual on an Xray.

@Nameynameychangey1234555554544

You could get an antibody test.

VenusTiger @Zaphodsotherhead that's interesting yes - would she be willing to have an antibodies test when available to see if it was? Would you come back and tell us if it's the case?

There might not be any point in having an antibody test so long after supposed Covid19.

For this virus, the antibodies probably don't stay in your system long. In some mild cases it might only be for a matter of weeks

@Worriedaboutthefuture1

Get an antibody test and then you’ll know....

Until there’s evidence that significant numbers of people have tested positive via the antibody test who had symptoms in December (but not in March/April) I’ll hold to my theory that people’s illnesses were the flu or some other nasty bug.

If it HAD been here previously (which I think might be wishful thinking from all of us), then wouldn’t we expect those recent antibody studies to reflect a much higher level within communities? London was 15% (I think) with the rest of ya being around or below 5%. If a virus has been here six months, and everyone who is convinced they had it in December / January actually HAD had THE virus, and not another respiratory virus, of which there are many, ... then not only would the death rates be heightened...wouldn’t we also be seeing far larger volumes of antibodies in those studies?
I badly want to think it was here earlier, and want to believe the theories of this being the second spike. But even if you explain swag the death figures with mutation theories... the antibody results don’t add up either.

If Covid19 had been circulating last year, there would have many unexplained deaths by January and February. It would have really noticable.

If we had not had lockdown (23rd March) then there would have been half a million deaths in the UK by now.

There were bugs and viruses going round last year, just like there always is, but they were not Covid19

Yes perhaps its wishful thinking.
I find the idea of a pandemic unimaginable Yet here it is.

There seem to be a number of people who are incredibly emotionally invested in convincing themselves that Coronavirus was widespread here since December, when the evidence just doesn’t support it. I’m guessing it might be a coping strategy as the prospect of Covid being more serious than “a bit of flu” is hard to accept.

I've posted before that DH had a virus with very similar symptoms in December.
Started with a temperature and fatigue then he developed an awful cough that left him gasping for breath. He had an X-ray and several other tests and the conclusion at the end of Jan was just a really nasty virus.
The coincidence is that we have a relative who visited China in November.

None of us had any symptoms though and none of his family including his 88yo Nan although one of his colleagues developed something similar in January.

There was obviously something very, very similar going round at that time.

Every winter we’re told not to visit the gp with coughs and colds but to self medicate. I have wondered if the virus was here earlier than March but people didn’t realise they had it and just coped at home, with the more seriously ill going on to get pneumonia. I was very ill late January/February and I live near and visited York but I didn’t speak to a dr, so whatever illness I had was not recorded. Only when the uk became gripped by the virus did people start to notify the medical services of symptoms. Just a thought.

@StartingGrid Surely the theory of viral load means time could have amped up how ill people would get, like an avalanche effect?

Viral load is within an exposure timeframe, but you are correct in the abstract in that it could absolutely have been present in December and mutated ever so slightly to become more infectious.

My DH was terribly ill in early Feb. Awful dry cough. Feverish. Aches. The worst I’ve ever known him. It took him weeks to get over and his chest still isn’t right.

I caught it too - same symptoms but recovered far quicker.

I’m convinced he/we had Covid.

Another one here - DH has never ever been off sick in his life. He was floored with something in Feb which was cold like plus exhaustion. He works with people who travel a lot.
I had three weeks of fighting some thing mildly just before lockdown. Due to my job with public and volunteering jobs on top, Id be astounded if I haven't had it but no major symptoms.
I have friend and work colleagues who defo have had it too just before lockdown or after who I had loads of close contact with.

I seem to remember some
Kind of illness flu or novo I can’t remember but half the kids and teachers weee down with it . Pretty unheard of and I reckon that was corona. That’s why despite hindsight no government was going to get ahead as it was here before anyone realised. Obvs other mistakes were made like care homes ...

@packetandtripe I'm sure I have read that it has mutated into more than one strain already

There seem to be a number of people who are incredibly emotionally invested in convincing themselves that Coronavirus was widespread here since December, when the evidence just doesn’t support it. I’m guessing it might be a coping strategy as the prospect of Covid being more serious than “a bit of flu” is hard to accept

Yes exactly, and that they believe, for whatever reason, that having it once guarantees immunity. As far as we know so far, it doesn't