The SAGE schools advice.

[SmileEachDay]

schoolsweek.co.uk/coronavirus-scientists-told-ministers-a-rota-system-could-help-curb-transmission-in-schools/

Article re the SAGE advice to the government re school opening.

The government are not making it easy to trust them.

Just copying this from the actual SAGE document since so few have read it:

SPI-M cannot say with consensus, which combination of
useful policy changes will result in R remaining below 1." The estimates suggest the measures proposed will increase R by c. 0.3. Given it's estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.0 now, best case sees R close to or above 1. 2/2

The aim is to stay below 1. I foresee region by region variations being announced, spun as union or LA reluctance. But the gov seems to be heading towards this imo.

The R in my area (in the south ,as it goes) is about 0.9, they think.

Neuro

The use of language in these discussions is fascinating. This thread has been dubbed “hysterical”, when it’s actually just pointing out that government policy isn’t following particular science, but is claiming it is.

I’m not hysterical about the government lying - I’m angry and it makes me not trust them. 🤷🏻‍♀️

As soon as language like that starts appearing I stop listening! It's different to comment on your own feelings of course.

I have no idea who to trust, but I'm much more inclined to listen to opinions and data from a local level than the blanket advice from the government. Schools are better at deciding who, how and when based on their own staffing and their own logistical set ups, factoring in local area rates.

This kind of report increases concerns in some areas. Officers 'wary' as spit attacks rise in coronavirus pandemic www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52772337

I'm puzzled as to where that part of Boris's great speech has gone, as he said areas would be colour coded. Perhaps that's what will pop up on the 28th?

Neuro

Which is why many, many Heads decided a rota system against the government advice. It’s very frustrating that this decision could have been made less stressful for them.

Yes I sing understand the motivation behind the govt advice.

Afaik, French schools are going back under rotas.

Don't

@MagicalThinking

I agree, and I find it very interesting that these files have been made available today. I think some members of SAGE or the sub-committees are becoming unhappy.

I have a friend of a friend on one of the sub-committees. My impression is that everyone working on the covid response is just cracking under the stress and sheer level of work that they have to get through during this. Also unhappy about feeling that their work is picked apart by people trying to read ‘between the lines’ for their own political agenda.

Ironically, as I understand it, this was published now because people thought it would back up the governments position that having more children in school has a far lower effect than adherence to the rules outside school does.

I’ve been wondering if SAGE should have a dedicated comms team, but then I guess this would make them seem less independent further reduce trust in them.

@DrMadelineMaxwell

I definitely feel that a whole host of people will follow the lockdown less rigidly if their children are in school during the day

Sadly I think this you are right about this, and all the modelling shows that the wider community not following the rules has an effect an order of magnitude greater than whether children are in schools.

It makes all the discussion of the different school return scenarios a moot point as the behaviour of adults will eclipse any differences between the scenarios.

I feel like one of the biggest problems all through this has been comms failure. We really need clear, easy to understand explanations as to why the decisions are made and why we need to follow them.

We really need clear, easy to understand explanations as to why the decisions are made and why we need to follow them

I agree. Do you think it’s incompetence or deliberately obfuscation?

@NeurotrashWarrior

This is just my guess, but I wonder if the reason is that rotas or not is inconsequential when modelled against the wider community effects likely to be seen and there may have been modelling against the use of rotas from policy advice from BEIS and the Treasury, or possibly a further unpublished paper from SPI-B (the released paper says they consider the rota scenario to be the least robust model and requires further study, so perhaps this was done?).

@SmileEachDay

I am inclined to think incompetence. This is just a guess, so I could be completely wrong, but I guess there is probably limited scientific literacy in the comms teams and that everything is just happening at a rate that means it is all pressured and rushed through.

I think there is probably the problems of both “too many cooks spoil the broth” and so much work to get through that everyone is exhausted and nowhere near their best. I don’t know how that could be solved though.

Not, who knows; perhaps it's driven by equality and reaching more vulnerable children as they were clear that all year 6 must return even in middle schools while ignoring the fact that for the three tier systems, it's the little yr 4s who are due to move up to the middle schools (yr5-yr8).

Would also be easier to test results of transmission rates if everyone in at the same time.

They've never been clear as to the reasoning behind any of it.

That's interesting. I am in Scotland where we are splitting classes in half, and going back on a rota basis.

We have had no indication of what sort of hours it will be yet.

I was initially thinking half days would be best for primary kids (though 2 full days would be best for parents, and would be my more selfish preference). I thought week on/week off would be likely for secondary.

I wonder if this means week on/week off will be more likely for primary. Or even two weeks.

The French also have regional variations in response to R. No area with an R anywhere near 1 should go back with this SAGE document in mind.

Yes piggy, a friend's children in one area in France aren't back for another week or 2. I think they're in for 2 days per week.