The SAGE schools advice.

[SmileEachDay]

schoolsweek.co.uk/coronavirus-scientists-told-ministers-a-rota-system-could-help-curb-transmission-in-schools/

Article re the SAGE advice to the government re school opening.

The government are not making it easy to trust them.

CAM that’s still not children though is it. The problem is your bunching children in with older adults. It’s weird!

Welcome to MN, Spillinteas

You have been busy.

I'd want to get paid to many posts in such as short time.

Write! Aaargh.

I am so stressed as the mother of a year 6 child. I have said she's not returning and I have no idea if I've made the right decision.

Spillinteas

People are dying because of COVID, not just with it. In fact, the modelling on my local area suggests that people (in hospital, at least) are dying roughly 10 years earlier than they would have without COVID. They may have had underlying conditions, but not ones which would cause death in the short term

Spill

It’s not a “whole other thread”.

Although you don’t seem to know what this thread is actually about soooooo....

Echt I think you might have a point.

This seems to have gone off topic and I haven't read the full document yet but just wanted to give some more info on how this is working.

There are several sub-groups that are informing SAGE. Three universities are primarily doing the modelling work: Imperial, LSHTM and Warwick. The results from all of these are being analysed by SPI-M (made up of individuals from a much larger number of organisations) and a consensus conclusion is passed on to SAGE. SAGE then work with government decision makers.

It's important to separate the modelling results from SPI-M (which are available and are purely scientific/epidemiological) from the conclusions that will come from SAGE/COBR meetings (which will be much more political).

Magical

That’s interesting. It doesn’t make the government’s behaviour any less duplicitous.

SmileEachDay

I agree, and I find it very interesting that these files have been made available today. I think some members of SAGE or the sub-committees are becoming unhappy.

I'm going to have an in-depth look at the 30th April SPI-M/SPI-B document now but I think there is going to be a u-turn in the next few days and schools won't be opening 1st June.

find it very interesting that these files have been made available today

Timed to coincide with the end of term. Government always release shit about schools on the last Friday of term 😂

I’d imagine some of the research bodies would be extremely unhappy!

I’d be really interested to know what you get from the 30th April document.

It's mad. As a TA I have to go into an enclosed space, with no social distancing, am no allowed to have any PPE despite needing to perform intimate care and no one be will be wearing masks.
I feel like my safety and life is valueless and no one cares about any risk to me, they just want their kids out. Vulnerable children are already in school of course.

Children may be low risks but there are actual real life adults in school too! Those adults would prefer to be safe thank you very much.

@Spillinteas

Children are NOT super spreaders. And I’ll say it again - if they were all the teachers that fought the key works kids would be dead.

Any actual points you have are really undermined by hyperbole like this.

Assuming a 100% transmission rate and a 100% death rate is, by any measure, quite ridiculous. If these were the rates, we shouldn't ever leave our houses again.

I’d be really interested to know what you get from the 30th April document.

Very cautious and couched use of language in the document. I get the impression the researchers have been asked to carry out the modelling but they are not convinced of the accuracy of their results. I'm not implying that the results are wrong, just that they don't have good enough data to give meaningful results. You can tell because they only present the relative effectiveness of each situation but don't try and infer what this will mean for the R rate. Lots of caveats too particularly that they still don't know enough about how COVID-19 spreads in children.

Key message: "SPI-M cannot say with consensus, which combination of useful policy changes will result in R remaining below 1"

The evidence is clear that opening schools for a limited number of year groups poses a low risk for children whether the exact scenario has been modelled or not. Teacher deaths are underrepresented in the mortality figures. I pity those caught up in the union spin! I would be interested to know when they think it will be ‘safe’ because I seriously doubt it is September. I respect the right for parents to chose whether their own child goes back to school but please do not remove the option for others. It’s important we make rationale and evidenced based decisions as a country.

echt

Welcome to MN, Spillinteas

You have been busy

I'd want to get paid to many posts in such as short time

Eh? Report my post I’ve been here over six years I don’t mind MN confirming it. But thanks for the laugh!

Smile I do understand the thread it’s just the same as the other COVID dementor threads where fury and fear mongering is continually pumped out.

If you work in a school - quit. Your health is way to important. Just quit.

Children may be low risks but there are actual real life adults in school too! Those adults would prefer to be safe thank you very much

Well it’s a good job the key workers didn’t feel like that eh? Or all the other people that have been working through this!

But yeah - the government are lying! They are trying to kill us all! Hide every body!

I'm v concerned as I have a yr6 who struggles with transition desperate to return but vulnerable household members.

It seems highly politisized either way and so hard to weigh up the choices.

It’s interesting to me that some parents are making the argument that schools should not return rather than I will not be sending my child. I think those parents (who aren’t teachers) who are arguing for schools not to reopen “because of the evidence” and because “it’s not safe” are trying to ensure their own children are not disadvantaged relative to those children who do return by arguing no one should go back. We shouldn’t be all brought down to this irrational argument.

I definitely feel that a whole host of people will follow the lockdown less rigidly if their children are in school during the day. It was not long after the school date of 1st June was mentioned that I read here on mnet someone writing that their child would probably go playing in the park with their friends after school, because why not - they were already in school with them all day.

But yeah - the government are lying! They are trying to kill us all! Hide every body

I think someone needs to put the wine away and go to bed.

DrM Im sure of that. That last week before shcools shut we were supposed to be beginning to distance but people at our school rrally didnt as the kids were mixing at school all day so whats the point. It was only when schools shut it became real for people.

DrM precisely! Adults will behave very differently once schools go back. Yet the SAGE doc says in order to keep the R rate down mostly depends on adult behaviour. I don’t trust the govt. They seem to have ignored the science. I’m not a teacher but wish the focus was on the vulnerable children and folk would stop blaming teachers and actually recognise the amazing work they’ve been doing during this chaos and before and will continue to do.

Yes drM, and that's a key point. As the science says that it's safe to go back to school as long as everyone else keeps to SD measures. And showed the modelling.

The ISage goes further and looks at it from a different angle, and shows potential infection rates in children if we wait 2 more weeks or even till sept, the latter being the lowest.

The thing is it's all every well to use smear tactics in a discussion (fury, hysteria, dementors - I'm well versed in that now from FWR, distraction techniques when faced with hard science), but it's an own goal.

A friend, not hugely close but we share several different friends, is regularly posting that we shouldn't live in fear and this is a storm in a tea cup. Ironically she doesn't trust the govt and thinks they're deliberately manipulating the whole thing for their own gains. She posts things alluding to herd immunity etc from the us, maverick scientists etc. So her motivations are subtly different. She doesn't seem to get the wider point of SD, I'm not entirely sure.

But it's a spectacular own goal as clearly the modelling and science, from both sage groups, says kids can not go back if everyone else is adhering to the SD.

The more the "don't be silly, we need to get back to normal" message is pushed, the more many completely misunderstand and we end up in lockdown again, trying to support the nhs.

Luckily many/most councils are telling schools to do what they feel is manageable and appropriate and most are simply expanding their provisions to those at most need. Or allowing all to touch base at some point.

says kids can not go back if everyone else is adhering to the SD.

Should say: kids can go back if everyone else is strictly adhering to the SD.