Second Wave - Yes or No?

[MysticMeghan]

So the papers are now full of warnings about a "deadly second wave" but if you ditch the articles and look at the comments 99% of people don't agree. People want lockdown over, they want to get out, they want things back how they were. Look at the beaches today.

Most people I know think it's going to peter out in the next few weeks. The tabloids seem to be going with this, but then they print whatever sensationalist crap sells newspapers, it's not necessarily true. Even my own friends think that in a worst case scenario few people might have mild flu like symptoms, it's not worth going crazy over, we're all over reacting and we've stuffed the economy and everyone's businesses and jobs for nothing. Just so the government can flex its muscles and control us. Many even think it's a conspiracy.

Justification for the "overreaction" theory seems to be that the Nordic countries haven't really locked down and only a few have died. Many European countries now opening up again with few ill effects and many tourist destinations in Spain etc.now looking to have a late tourist season.

In the UK we are constantly being reminded that deaths are going DOWN. Therefore it's ok.. "It's over" seems to be the prevailing theme. McDonalds and Burger King open again, people in England allowed to travel and taking full advantage, going to the beach, the park, hanging out with their mates. Prevailing theory seems to be that the experts over reacted and got it wrong, we all self isolated for nothing and the same experts warning of a second wave just want their 5 minutes of fame. Ignore them and lock them up. Most people don't know anyone who has had it or died of it and therefore the risk is small, it's just a bit of flu and people die of flu all the time.

Or....there might be a very deadly second wave after all, this is being glimpsed in China but is being covered up. Governments and companies are desperate to re-start economies so are taking the view that if a few more die who cares, they were probably old people who would have died anyway. And young people aren't affected so just put things back the way they were and if a few oldies die then just collateral damage.Oldies can stay at home if they're worried.

Which is it? I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. It IS a deadly disease, it's being desperately underplayed now in the interests of preventing economic ruin. I certainly think the British Media is being manipulated and that's why we have one story one day and a completely different one the next.

Am I the only person in the world who thinks that pubs and restaurants re-opening and global travel re-starting for the sake of keeping a tourist industry alive is a really bad idea?

I would have thought recruiting extra bank staff is quite sensible? I don’t think a second peak is inevitable but I accept it’s a possibility. The NHS and government should be preparing for that possibility even if it is considered unlikely.

They are prepared for the second wave

I dont think the virus has been eradicated. it will be back, I am fearful

of course it hasn’t been eradicated, we still have approx 2500 people being diagnosed with it every day.
Why would anyone think it had been eradicated?

And it won’t be back as it hasn’t gone anywhere. We just need to keep the numbers as stable as possible.

It IS a deadly disease, it's being desperately underplayed now in the interests of preventing economic ruin

It’s not that deadly if it only kills less than 1% of those affected overall. The problem is the exponential growth.

I think there will be a second spike and that the government want this so long as the NHS isn’t overwhelmed. It suits them fine for people to get it as it brings them closer to their “herd immunity “
Plan

Am I the only person in the world who thinks that pubs and restaurants re-opening and global travel re-starting for the sake of keeping a tourist industry alive is a really bad idea?

Well now, yes but not forever. Do you have any idea how much economic activity and jobs these sectors represent? People think oh we can do without holidays or meals out - but this is a massive industry. It can’t stay closed for an illness that kills less than 1% of its victims.

For all those saying it has been here since January. Maybe, but not much.

The peak levelled off a few weeks into lockdown. The assumption being it would have continued on that line without lockdown.

As regards a second wave. I agree the Iran graphs look like it. It is not unusual with a virus. It is also not unusual for the virus to get weaker. The reason being roughly that the really sick are away from others, with the strain in circulation being less aggressive. There have been suggestion of that happening in China.

The deadly second wave from Spanish flu is generally assumed to have resulted from the really sick being moved and sent home.

Problem with that @SudokuBook is 1% of a very big number is still a big number.

Which is why I said the problem is the exponential growth, rather than the deadliness of the virus per se

The peak levelled off because of lockdown.
The virus is still around but it needs people to infect and for them to infect others. It doesn't have a mind of it's own, it relies on hosts for it's success, so if people stay apart, avoid others, it can't grow.
When more people are out and about, more people will become infected. Of course, we can't stay in permanent lockdown, so we have to accept that the virus is part of life, and learn how to protect against it, and to minimise the risks.

We'll have a second peak, and further peaks. But we should hopefully be more aware of what is happening, trying to isolate and stamp out hot spots. No point comparing it to Spanish flu - we are in a different world with a different virus. We have technology, hygiene, health care to prevent a huge second wave. So, hopefully further waves will be apparent but manageable. They are inevitable.
The problems will arise if the response to an increase in R number is slow. That's why we need to get this track and trace up and running before more restrictions are lifted. We need a far quicker turn around on test results and we need to feel confident that the government are pro-active not reactive. We must learn from the first wave. The government locked down too late, and in my opinion (and that of health professionals I know) we lifted restrictions two weeks too early.

I think that the next three weeks are crucial, because the R will go up, and it will either be stamped on quickly by identifying, testing, isolating and tracing. Or, and this is my fear, it will get hold too quickly to control because of inadequate response by a government trying to keep up with the virus, rather than being on top of it.

I've j7st applied for a job as an NHS support worker (bank). They told me on the phone They are recruiting 300 of us for the expected 2nd peak. Thw6vecalready trained 200 and need 100 more of us.

They also spent millions on Nightingale hospitals that should have been used for the elderly, not kept empty.

I work for the NHS. Some of the clinical staff are up in arms because they were redeployed to the front line, then found they had no work to do.

Now they are asking if they can go back to their usual jobs, management are saying no, because there will be a second wave.

The manager give wildly different dates for when they expect this to be, even within the same region. None of it has any logic.

Left to their own devices, the clinicians would like to draw up ‘interim’ plans that allow them to get some regular work done, whilst being prepared to switch back to ‘peak’ mode.

I’m afraid this is what happens when the NHS is run by ‘managers’ without formal management training, often staff who have risen up to be managers because it offered higher pay. In my experience, many well qualified clinicians who do not wish to be managers are paid much less, have better (workable) solutions but are not listened to because the managers want to appear to be in charge.

Just to reiterate, the ONLY ways out of lockdown are:

1. We practice eugenics; some people will die and the majority accept that (until they remember they or their husbands are 45+ and obese)

2.We wait for a vaccine

1. We start community testing like every other country in the world. Trace cases and isolate the disease, zoning areas and having each zone lifting lockdowns as infections drop and putting them back down as they rise. It's normal procedure for infectious disease and really should have been enacted months ago. We can control the disease, the govt have chosen not to.

@JeSuisPoulet
Totally agree with your point 3. They were warned, they left it too late, and now a second peak might happen and I still don't think they will be ready to do what you suggest. I can't see track and trace being effective from first of June, however much Boris says it will. Woeful.

I think what we've gone through the last few months is the second peak.. this virus has been around a lot longer than January , I know so many people who were very ill in early 2019 through to oct

I think it depends where you live on terms of what the NHS are doing. My local super hospital, CV never went above a pod of 4 in ICU, more on wards but hardly any now. Regular bank staff who've relied on full time (or more) work for years are being thrown into financial difficulties as they're not needed.

I'd be very surprised if they were recruiting hundreds more.

I think what we've gone through the last few months is the second peak.. this virus has been around a lot longer than January , I know so many people who were very ill in early 2019 through to oct

The thing is though that if this is the second peak and it resulted in 36000 deaths with lockdown, wouldn't we have noticed thousands upon thousands of excess deaths in Dec/Jan if that had been the first peak?

I'd love it to be true btw but I don't see how it can be.

I know so many people who were very ill in early 2019 through to oct
That was NOT SARS-cov-2. The phylogenetic trees clearly show the outbreak beginning the very very earliest towards the end of October, more likely mid November. That's STARTING, as in the very few first cases in China. Slowly.
It's published scientific results, from different groups.
So, people, stop the nonsense that was doing rounds during 2019. At best there might have been a few cases out of China in December 2019, but that clearly didn't impact on the current pandemic.

@Lweji sorry but I don't agree and I also don't believe anything that has come out of China !!! I

@Deblou43 so where are all the excess deaths in January? There weren't any. I too would love it if it had been around for ages. There is no evidence that it was and lots of evidence that it wasn't.

I have seen @Lweji post before. While I don't know anything more about her than her MN name, I have found her posts on science related stuff to be informed and interesting.

Thank you Lweji, its helped my understanding.

There were excess deaths from pneounmia in January. We all have different opinions that is mine from hearing from my sister in law who is in icu and what I have researched! China lied and I think it was in London way before

Deblou43

@Lweji sorry but I don't agree and I also don't believe anything that has come out of China !!!

What vou agree or not is irrelevant. I'm talking hard science data looking at hundreds of viral sequences from all over the world, analysed by different research groups, including one I know and trust.

It's not a matter of opinion for you to dispute.

It is possible that there were cases in the UK in January 2020. I haven't seen anything recent, but most countries are likely to be looking back and analysing previous episodes of pneumonia. There have been a few in the news, although I'd have to go and look at this specifically.
However, the pattern of damage in the lungs is quite distinct and it would have come out or been noticed by hospitals all over if there had been significant covid much earlier than thought.

Who knows.

Even when people who have very flimsy or no existent scientific of analytical skills are ignoring the experts and coming up their own ideas..

Ultimately what does it matter? What will be, will be. I dont believe we will be vaccinated by September and I dont believe it will just die out either with a suspected Ted 95% population pool waiting with no immunity.

I dont think things are going back to normality within weeks or months and dont believe we have seen the last of the deaths.

Theres no crystal ball here.

I posted this earlier. Excess deaths did not kick off in January. So if we did have Covid in January, it was presumably at a low level.