Covid cases increasing

[weepingwillow22]

Is anyone else using the zoe app where around 3.6m people are reporting any or no symptoms of covid?
covid.joinzoe.com/

Until recently the app was showing a nice fall in people reporting symptoms however in the last 10 days they have stabilised and started to increase again.
Peak april 1st 2.1m suspected cases
8th may 230k suspected cases
17th may 252k suspected cases

I realise the data is self reported however the trend should be accurate and reflective of actual cases.

Is anyone else worried about this? We can't rely on government data on cases as test numbers are increasing/unstable and the death data lags by 2 weeks. I was going by this app to show some progress but it seems like we are going in the wrong direction.

I have also looked at the maps in the app and reported symptoms are increasing in London despite the government is saying the r number is very low here.

If this app is correct the death rate should stop falling soon.

@BaileysForBreakfast

Nope. Not me but many will. And as even the researchers say this app is disproportinately used by the young, female and those of higher socio-economic status and only less than 4% of the UK population, it'll tell us very little about CV but will tell us people get hayfever and periods.

Which we know.

@amnot The app has already led to loss of smell being added to the uk diagnostic criteria so I would say it has been useful in telling us about CV on that basis alone.

I don't think people are arguing that it isn't a useful app and there is clearly important information coming out from it. To determine the prevalence however you really need to look at either a randomised study looking at samples drawn at random from across the whole population rather than those volunteering for the app, or you need to look at hard facts such as hospital admission and death rates which are less likely to be influenced by whether someone has selected to use an app. Even the government figures on those testing positive are likely to be biased as some people will request testing at a much lower symptom threshold than others, plus of course anyone who is asymptomatic will not come forward for testing. You are though still making a valuable contribution, just try not to read too much into small fluctuations.

I think the researchers are well aware of the limitations of this app, and still think it is worth doing, and will be even more so in the future when we understand the progress of the pandemic better.
The more people that join in, the better it will be.

No it hasn't led from the app OP. Lack of taste and smell related to COVID has been seen globally and studied.

It's been listed as a symptom for many countries for weeks now and there were international concerns raised why the UK were not including it as a symptom.

It has nothing to do with the app why the UK has included it later than others but everything to do with global incidence and studies

www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=journalotohns.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40463-020-00423-8&ved=2ahUKEwieysTQx73pAhWwWhUIHezCByQQFjADegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw2IzRj_nBBHN-JGBCMg_-ZW

In late March ENT specialists in the UK were reporting lack of smell as a potential COVID symptom to Public Health England. Backed up by global incidence.

The recent inclusion of this potential symptom is shockingly late but nothing to do with data from this app.

This is a great app but shouldn’t be used for monitoring trends as it will be affected by increased app awareness / more people using it. Similarly I agree that people will self report non existent symptoms / very minor unlikely to be CV19 symptoms in order to get a test.

It appears testing is being rolled out to anyone over 5 now with either a cough, fever or loss of taste or smell so no need to use the app to get tested, if people have been or are planning to do so.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/18/rollout-of-nhs-contact-tracing-app-to-be-delayed-until-june-no-10-test-track-coronavirus?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail

I am still reporting on the Zoe site but haven't looked at the data for a while. I will now.

It's not surprising. I'm more suprised that people thought it could just die out.

Why isn't it exploding in other countries. That what I dont get.

You don't automatically get offered a test if you report symptoms, they are randomly selecting subjects from people who have the profile of symptoms.
covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-testing-uk

Has gone up a bit more but I really don't know if significant, any opinions?

Big jump up again today. I can't understand it.

Yes up to 276k now from low of 230k on 8th May. Looking at the map the increases seem to be largely in the midlands and north east but also around east London/essex. The Welsh Valleys is also relatively high. I assume the data is showing a link with deprivation levels.

I reported feeling unwell yesterday as I had a temp rise and felt a bit shit. By the evening I was dying from hayfever, which often makes my temp rise and my period has started a few days early which always increases my temp a good 2 degrees.

Which means they may register my symptoms as covid, but actually its turned out to be something else.

It would be naive to not think we will get an uptick as restrictions are lifted, its keeping that uptick under control which is the purpose of the gradual restrictions release.

Still, looking on the map, the vast majority of the country is still that nice pale pink 0-1% infected colour which is reassuring as when I first started using the app when it was first released a lot of it was the dark burgundy shade so it's still positive news as far as I'm concerned.

I wonder if the hot weather could have also have prompted an uptick in people registering symptoms, people getting headaches linked to dehydration etc. Trying to stay positive...

Yes I think it definitely is too early to say things are getting much worse, there are more registered users too it is entirely possible people are registering to report symptoms. Worth keeping an eye on though.

If numbers have been rising in real terms for a week or so you would see a rise in hospitalisations I would have thought and we haven’t.

Whilst the testing has been shambolic with every symptomatic person now entitled to a test we should start having a clearer idea of who is actually infected. Positive test numbers have remained fairly stable for a while, perhaps even dropping slightly despite more tests taking place (I think 177,000 yesterday).

If numbers have been rising in real terms for a week or so you would see a rise in hospitalisations I would have thought and we haven’t

Maybe shielding is working.

Numbers up a bit more too. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying things are getting worse, just something of note after a big sustained fall. I don't know if these would be picked up on admissions yet as not large numbers and very dispersed.

There is up to date data on hospital admissions due to covid here in figure 19.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886864/Weekly_National_COVID19_Surveillance_w21_FINAL.pdf
There seems to be an uptick in admissions in the NE and midlands and a flattening elsewhere so similar to the zoe data. The fall in admissions seems to have stopped everywhere.

Apologies I meant NW not NE

I'm not surprised if numbers are going up, as lockdown has been relaxed for nearly two weeks now. I live in a crowded area and the streets are busy all day with people out and about.

Hopefully there will be enough concrete data for the government to analyse next weekend with regards to letting the schools go back.

But really it would be surprising to relax lockdown and not see an increase in cases

More people are using the app as it grows in popularity.

So there appears to be an increase.

But it seems like you dont want to hear this explanation OP?

Do you not think the experts will have accounted for that in the modelling Gabriella?

What modelling?

The op gives figures from several dates in the past. Actual figures not a model or percentage.