Covid cases increasing

[weepingwillow22]

Is anyone else using the zoe app where around 3.6m people are reporting any or no symptoms of covid?
covid.joinzoe.com/

Until recently the app was showing a nice fall in people reporting symptoms however in the last 10 days they have stabilised and started to increase again.
Peak april 1st 2.1m suspected cases
8th may 230k suspected cases
17th may 252k suspected cases

I realise the data is self reported however the trend should be accurate and reflective of actual cases.

Is anyone else worried about this? We can't rely on government data on cases as test numbers are increasing/unstable and the death data lags by 2 weeks. I was going by this app to show some progress but it seems like we are going in the wrong direction.

I have also looked at the maps in the app and reported symptoms are increasing in London despite the government is saying the r number is very low here.

If this app is correct the death rate should stop falling soon.

@DobbyTheHouseElk on the first screen, before you click the report button, there's a blue button that says research. That will take you to the data others are talking about

I'm not that familiar with the app and only heard about it yesterday. Could it be that more people have just started using the app?

@IncrediblySadToo I was wondering the same. I just signed up as I thought it would be good to add to research but also to be able to see a bit more detail about our local area. It's so generic.

I've not even been able to see any numbers, just the pink map & running line graph?!

You need to go on the website for local data: covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map

I would be cautious of over interpretation. Some people (early adopters) will have signed up early seeing the benefits of contributing to research whether they are well or not. People joining later might be more likely to join because they are feeling unwell, especially now that testing has ramped up and this is one way to get a test.

The main purpose of the app is to look at how symptoms develop and distinguishing 'true' covid symptoms from other circulating illnesses/ conditions. It doesn't need to be a representative sample to achieve that, especially with the level of uptake of the app, they will have lots of data. It will though be biased when looking at prevalence especially when considering the external circumstances such as increased awareness of the app and the bias that sick people are probably (at this point in the app's life) going to sign up than well people. The infection rates should be considered alongside other data not alone.

@IncrediblySadToo
'I have the APP & report every day. No way would I report 'symptoms' if I just had a normal headache or whatever'

The app doesnt ask you to report symptoms of covid. Is asks to you either select 'I am feeling physically well' or 'I am not feeling quite right'. If you select the latter it then gives you a long list of ailments that may or may not be covid related. It is important to just answer honestly if even you feel they are 'normal' and not covid related.

I agree, answer the questions and let them interpret the data (by testing some people and extrapolating with proven research methodology). It's not gimmicky 😁.

I never heard of this before so I clicked your link and looked at my area it looks like not many others in my area heard of it either as only just over a 1000 used it?! I think it looks very interesting though and they should promote it more so more people use it!

I have the APP & report every day. No way would I report 'symptoms' if I just had a normal headache or whatever
This is EXACTLY what the app is for. It's not for people to sit at home and self-diagnose what is 'normal' and 'not normal'. Their study will include participants with one or more Covid symptoms but who are not subsequently testing positive. They are looking for patterns. That is how research works. That's why it asks you to report even if you feel well. However, I doubt they'd send out a kit to someone who reported only a headache on one day, but it's well known that some people get the virus with virtually no symptoms and that very mild symptoms have been known to develop into something far worse.

There is really no point in doing the app if you're going to sit at home deciding not to say 'yes' when they ask if you have a headache, even though you have a headache!

If you're microanalysing it on a daily basis, then yes it looks like a very tiny blip upwards for 3 days, but if you look at the big picture over the month, that's surely far more important. The case numbers have absolutely plumeted.

It's like buying shares and sitting at your computer refreshing the screen constantly and worrying minute by minute that your shares have lost a penny. Over the course of a month, the shares may have gained 20p a share despite its blips in between.

You need to look at it longer term and note the general trend. Come back in a month and say there's a rising trend, that's more meaningful and of concern. Not the dailies.

Ice latte thanks

@daisychain01 I take you point about the trend but in the context of a couple of months data it is not a tiny blip, the numbers have been flat or increasing since the 8th may, 10 days ago. As other have said though there may be other factors driving this e.g hayfever, increase in reporting etc. It is a shame the researchers have not but anything on the website to explain it.

@baileyforbreakfast 'However, I doubt they'd send out a kit to someone who reported only a headache on one day'

I reported a headache and sore throat for 2 days (no other symptoms) and they sent out a test kit to me. I guess they are interested in capturing any extremely mild cases without the traditional symptoms to inform knowledge of the asymptomatic group.

I reported something similar, willow. In the past I've reported eg a headache, and it did not trigger anything, but reporting more than one symptom at this time seems to have triggered a test. Maybe symptom reporting should have triggered a test before, but testing kits weren't available.

I have been using the app since near the beginnning.

On April 1 I began to feel unwell. I had a high temp and throat like razors.

I spent several days with a horrid throat, phlegm, a cough (which I think I may have developed from too much cleaning) and a very high temp for 2 days.
I think I had tonsillitis. I reported my symptoms and they could have been interpreted as C19 I suppose.

It's interesting pp had a test from them. Then, tests were like gold dust.

My point is that I wonder if many cases were like mine. Other conditions.

I don't know for sure I had tonsillitis. One son was in Italy at half term. He'd been ill three weeks before me (3 weeks after Italy) with a very high temp and sickness (he's never ill). My other son had cold like symptoms a week before my other son.

@baileysforbreakfast I expect it is based on a range of factors e.g age, gender, location etc. They probably want to test a sample of people in different groups.

I’ve been using this app since the start. It’s important to log if you aren’t quite feeling right, even if you don’t think it’s Covid, as that’s the reason for the study!
I logged the other day that I didn’t feel quite right and had to type out my symptom. I was wheezing quite a lot after doing some exercise, which isn’t like me at all and I’m not asthmatic so it was very strange. I haven’t had it since but they emailed me at the weekend asking me to get tested.

I had a test sent by them too. Massive headaches and some gut issues but it was also my period that week, so it could just be that. Waiting on my test being collected today after doing it last night before bed.

It works out as about 700 people in Bristol even out of 13k
Thing is though how many of those are still going about their business as they only have sore throat or headache.. Rather than fever or cough.

Interesting. I knew about the app, but haven't bothered joining to report negative symptoms. I might have joined to report positive ones though.

Could it be that people are only now finding out about the app?

I've had frequent headache, and sore throat since lockdown and I have a cough left over from a dreadful virus that I had over Christmas that knocked me off my feet for five weeks. I'm wondering how the app might interpret that.

I've used it since the beginning and got a test a few weeks ago because of sore throat and fatigue. I was pretty sure it wasn't Covid but I went for a drive in test, because I hoped it would help with the research.

I report every symptom though, I don't pick and choose. I'm sneezy and snuffly this week ( I guess hay fever, although I don't usually suffer) - that hasn't triggered a test.

They're hoping that this will help with identifying likely patterns of symptoms that correlate with positive tests. That would be great, because it's clear that, for many people, fever and persistent cough doesn't cover it.

Surely as people start to mix again there are plenty of other illnesses that have those symptoms are still around so people will be getting ill again but may not Be COVID

HarrietOh: I was wheezing quite a lot after doing some exercise, which isn’t like me at all and I’m not asthmatic so it was very strange. I haven’t had it since but they emailed me at the weekend asking me to get tested.

This is exactly what I have had the past few days, like a burning in my windpipe. I reported it on the symptom tracker and got invited for a test. I've been extra aware of any possible symptoms as I will be going back into school on June 1 and obviously want to make sure they are not to do with the virus - maybe this applies to lots of other people as well?

DD reported symptoms (very mild, but headache & sore throat, although severity not asked about). This was last week & I thought she might be sent a test but wasn't. I wonder how they choose.