Covid cases increasing

[weepingwillow22]

Is anyone else using the zoe app where around 3.6m people are reporting any or no symptoms of covid?
covid.joinzoe.com/

Until recently the app was showing a nice fall in people reporting symptoms however in the last 10 days they have stabilised and started to increase again.
Peak april 1st 2.1m suspected cases
8th may 230k suspected cases
17th may 252k suspected cases

I realise the data is self reported however the trend should be accurate and reflective of actual cases.

Is anyone else worried about this? We can't rely on government data on cases as test numbers are increasing/unstable and the death data lags by 2 weeks. I was going by this app to show some progress but it seems like we are going in the wrong direction.

I have also looked at the maps in the app and reported symptoms are increasing in London despite the government is saying the r number is very low here.

If this app is correct the death rate should stop falling soon.

The cynic in me can’t help wondering if people who aren’t eligible are just reporting symptoms they may not have through here as a quick way to get a test anyway?

I’ve been using the app since it first started. Meant to watch the webinars as well but never got around to it.
How do you access the information OP? I only use the self report button and haven’t noticed other settings. I didn’t even know we can see the overall data. I feel unbelievably stupid now!

Please ignore my post! Just saw the page 2 of the thread.
It’s getting better and better. I need a strong coffee 😅

Approximately 4% of the population are signed up to this app, which is a statistically insignificant number even before you consider that they are self-selecting and self-reporting with no quality control, control group, or representative sampling process. The information is interesting, and as part of a bigger picture in hindsight may be mildly informative. But at this stage you may as well use a crystal ball to predict infection rates. It may be marginally less reliable, but not by much.

The interesting part is the correlation with test results and symptom patterns. We have no idea how representative the sampling of those who receive tests is.

I don't see how this app can tell you anything when such a small number are using it and reporting such generic symptoms which could be caused by many things, even a hangover!

And many will be fabricating symptoms because they want a test.

I think they have widened their criteria to include symptoms not previously counted as probably covid.

@amnot I don't see why people would want a test without symptoms. I am not relishing the prospect of having to insert a collection stick 1 inch up my nose and only doing it to support the research.

There is some info about the science behind it here in case anyone is interested
covid.joinzoe.com/post/detecting-covid-without-a-test

I don't see why people would want a test without symptoms

^ because the country is awash with worried well. Now more than ever.

The test is fine btw ... no great hardship!

@laniakea But surely you would only be worried if you had symptons. You wouldn't be inventing them to get a test.

Glad to hear it is ok, some of the videos online were showing the swab inserted almost back to your ears

So when they then go to the house of their Mum/friends/BF they can say they've been tested and don't have it.

Just heard on the news that they are now saying you should isolate if you lose your sense of smell.

@amnot. On that basis though you would need a test every week. Maybe I don't understand the British public....

I think they are using the information from the app to conclude that a loss of smell leads to a positive test.

@Choccyp1g That was one of the main findings of this research so far. Supposedly there is a much higher correlation between loss and taste and smell and a positive test than either fever or cough. It is used as a diagnostic criteria in most countries.

In the cohort from the United Kingdom, of the 6,452 participants who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 4,178 (64.76%) reported loss of smell and taste, compared with 2,083 out of 9,186 participants (22.68%) who tested negative

www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0916-2

I see it has finally been included in the UK as a diagnostic criteria
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/uk-coronavirus-tests-advised-for-people-who-lose-taste-or-smell?

Most people aren't planning to go every week OP. Its people who haven't seen loved ones for a while and want to break lockdown but be as 'safe' as possible. And that visit will keep them going for a few more weeks.

I've used the app since the beginning for all the family and yes just report well every day as all felt fine. I get loads of headaches so wouldn't add that in in isolation.

I think it's a brilliant app. I reported a few symptoms they had listed on a Friday and because my condition didn't improve they asked me to book a test on a Sunday. I got the test slot the same day and results expected in 48 hrs.

I would suggest that many of these will be hayfever!

With the ramping up of testing, and even if you use the lower end of tests sent out/done, the % positive is very low at between 0.5%-1%.

Honestly I’ve seen everything from high fever to feeling a bit worried described as a symptom on here ... the constant I coughed once last week do I have covid threads mean everyone has a symptom. Not to mention the someone stood too close to me maybe I have it asymptomatically cohort. And then there’s the OMG I’ve been tested for COVID drama seekers. I think anything relying on self reporting needs a high degree of skepticism.

The throat swab is a bit tricky to do yourself (must avoid the tongue) but the nasal ones are fine :)

I reported a sore throat on Saturday, yesterday I received an email telling me I could have a test. I'm going for the test very soon. I don't have any classic symptoms though.

It sounds as though with more available testing this app will give a good understanding of how the symptoms correspond to actual cases.
As we move out of lockdown that'll be important. Otherwise it risks people being almost permanently self isolating due to symptoms.

And many will be fabricating symptoms because they want a test.

Maybe you would, but most people don't think like that.