Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 8

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 8 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

@Oakmaiden Thanks for that link. Although I couldn't see the cases distributed by postcode, it was interesting to see the number of cases to date by age group.
I used this one from the BBC: www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51768274 (But it only gives me the number of cases in my county, not in my postcode).

@Nquartz Thanks! That's the one I was looking for! Although as WhyNotMe40 noticed, it's a shame it hasn't been updated to include cases after 18th April.

Thanks for the threads, very helpful. I've been reading for a while.

One thing ref. yesterday's hospital deaths, it's only as of 5pm, so definitely more to come.

@Nquartz
Wish I could see a similar one for Scottish postcodes. Any idea ?

Like with the lag with deaths, do we have anything showing number of cases per town based on the day the test was taken/processed, rather than when it's reported?

@elle - try ONS Deaths involving Covid 19 by local area and socioeconomic deprivation
You can search for something called Middle Layer Super Output Areas -

@Coquohvan; Scottish stats

www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

This is 311,000 or so. 20,000 deaths would be consistent with an R of 3, and death rate of 10%, but it's likely that R is higher in care homes, so it's to be presumed some care homes have escaped covid-19 so far.

Yes, many they have escaped.... I read a briefing today at work stating around 20-30% of care homes had been infected in my county (middle England - won’t say where as wasn’t a public document).

"are those other countries easing lockdown in the same way?"

Espresso Denmark's state epidemiologist gave her opinion of the European countries she'd observed that have relaxed lockdown
and predicted there wouldn't be a 2nd wave

I don't know if all those countries have packed public transport now,
or if a significant % of the public in each has been able to avoid public transport, as all govts have been advising
I'm retired, so I've completely avoided public transport here in Germany and have no info on it.

I also don't know if she has some evidence of COVID seasonality

• flu basically dies out as a risk in summer, but iirc SARS wasn't particularly seasonal

We were tracking Italy at 16 days behind right at the start.

Does anyone have that data currently? So what was italies daily deaths 16 days ago and what are they now?

Also would be interested in Spain's too because they are opening bars etc already and up until just over a week ago you could even leave the house if you were under 14 and then only for an hour with 1 adult.

They seem to be coming out of lockdown a lot quicker than us?

@ itsgettingweird

Someone on reddit was tracking this up till the uk put care homes in so is not recent but will give you no.s from 16 days ago. The french no,s are hospital deaths and so is the uk no.s

www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/gbm06i/30th_april_uks_daily_death_toll_compared_with/

Thanks. A look at those shows we had a bigger peak but seemed to come down quicker from it?

I just put this together, using the Italian death figures from here: github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-andamento-nazionale/dpc-covid19-ita-andamento-nazionale.csv

and the UK updated (to include out of hospital deaths) figures from here: follow link to time series

UK is in grey. Short version - I would say we reached a higher peak, but are declining at a similar rate. (the crazy bounces in the data are due to the under reporting at weekends, which causes case clusters mid/late week.

*It seems that despite all the 'clap for the NHS' stuff, female NHS staff have a death rate a small fraction of men working in menial low-paid jobs, and male NHS staff have a normal death rate compared to men generally.

It suggests that some of the PPE rhetoric may be misplaced - if doctors die from covid-19 then there will be questions asked, but if a minicab driver dies of covid-19 nobody gives a shit.*

This ....... just makes me feel really, really sad.
I know that it doesn’t add anything of substance to this wonderful, actually interesting thread, but there you go.

The first 2 paragraphs were meant to be a quote.

Me is quote fail 2020.😬

Regarding the men dying it's interesting that we really don't know how much this is biological and indeed WHETHER it is, or if men simply are less cautious/dirtier and this leads to them having much higher risk DOING THE SAME JOB.

My feeling is that it is biological, but it's certainly not proven/consensus.

On a log scale UK vs Italy from the FT.

That’s a 7 day rolling average to smooth the weekend bumps out.

And here, compared to Spain and France.

Going back to the care home mortality rate and the query about herd immunity...couldn’t it simply be that changes to procedure have meant that spread to care homes not already hit has been slowed/stopped? And within homes better isolation? Eg Stopping agency staff moving between homes, not admitting patients from hospital if they might be carriers, improved PPE and preventative measures, social distancing (as much as possible) within homes? I agree that antibody testing on surviving residents within affected homes would be very interesting,

I think the rushed transfer of patients from hospital to care homes at the beginning of March in order to clear as much capacity as possible was likely a huge factor in infecting many homes - essentially like throwing a load of grenades into them

I think it's probably true sleepwhenidie that CV19 was introduced into many care homes through discharging people from hospital.

It will be interesting to see what happens with placements in care homes. IMVHE, it's often the person's family who push for them to be admitting into a care home because they feel it to be safer than the person continuing to live at home, especially by themselves.

That perception may well have changed.

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT)

NEW: we’ve updated our excess mortality tracker, the gold-standard measure for Covid deaths, allowing like-for-like comparisons btwn countries

UK had 50,000 more deaths than usual in March & April
vs 27,000 reported Covid deaths at the time

We now have excess mortality data for all UK countries & regions.

Deaths in March & April were:
• 66% higher than usual in England
• +55% in Scotland
• +42% in Wales
• +34% in Northern Ireland
....
9/12 regions have excess deaths above 50%.

FT: Excess UK deaths in Covid-19 pandemic top 50,000

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034</a>

The Office for National Statistics said that in the week ending May 1, there had been 17,953 deaths in England and Wales recorded,
8,012 higher than the average of the past five years in that week,
as the disease killed three times the normal number of people in care homes.

This represented the seventh consecutive week that deaths exceeded normal levels
and once equivalent figures from Scotland and Northern Ireland were included,
takes total mortality across the UK during the pandemic to 50,979

Nick Stripe, head of life events at the ONS, told the BBC:
“[The figures are] actually the seventh-highest weekly total since this data set started in 1993
so we have had four out of the top seven weeks in the last four weeks”.
.....
The official figures from the UK’s statistical agencies are much higher than the daily announcement from the Department of Health and Social Care, which stands at 32,065.

Excess deaths is seen by ministers and the government’s scientific advisers as the best ultimate measure of the deadly impact of coronavirus.
It includes people who died with the disease, but without being tested, in the community and in care homes.
....
David Spiegelhalter, Winton professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge university,
called for further investigation into why so many more people were dying at home in recent weeks without coronavirus written on their death certificates.

“Many are people who would have lived longer had they got to a hospital,”
......
The FT model now estimates that slightly more than 60,000 more people will have died than normal from the start of the outbreak to May 11,
based on the excess deaths to date
and the latest daily figures from hospital deaths.

It will be interesting to see what happens with placements in care homes. IMVHE, it's often the person's family who push for them to be admitting into a care home because they feel it to be safer than the person continuing to live at home, especially by themselves. That perception may well have changed.

Numbers of new people coming into residential homes have fallen significantly... Whether that becomes a long lasting trend is another matter.

@Nquartz
Thank you for that graph very interesting.
Was hoping for one more drilled down to show towns/cities in Scotland.

Placemarking and thank you for the new thread.

As a teacher I agree regarding the risk is more for adults in schools, speaking also as a mother of a child with mild chronic asthma.