Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 8

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Welcome to thread 8 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

More
Kristian G. Andersen ‏*@K*GAndersen (Immunologist)

A lot of government reports from European countries on seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 this week and they all show the same - it's low.

Spain ~5%
Italy ~5%
Sweden ~5%
Denmark ~1%
Norway < 1%

Let's end the discussion about miracles and natural herd immunity? The data is in.

References:

Spain: https://www.isciii.es/Noticias/Noticias/Paginas/Noticias/PrimerosDatosEstudioENECOVID19.aspx?fbclid=IwAR0askXAC4Is4rSY8EHR6S9TYAMZQWh6mAvuHNyUjNgiZP3TWe6Sj3pcwGo …
Italy: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098442v1 …
Sweden: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/ …
Denmark: https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/de-forste-forelobige-resultater-af-undersogelsen-for-covid-19-i-befolkningen-er-nu-klar …
Norway: https://www.nrk.no/norge/nye-fhi-beregninger-viruset-er-mindre-utbredtt_-men-mer-dodelig-1.15021397

Well done shoots

I think there is a good argument for testing teachers and school staff For antibodies over the summer holiday to prepare for a wider opening of schools and colleges in September. (Disclaimer: I don't have any idea if they want a wider/full/rota return). It's just that o think once hospital staff and care worker staff have been done school staff should be next. It's the next place where social distancing is not 100% possible at all times and groups are going to gather with some degree of risk.

When I say I expect a teacher to be clear of CV I know its not guaranteed. But if they have not been exposed then the chances of them having it is low.

@BigChocFrenzy no. They said

"We have been working with regional teams and trusts to identify specific records that need to be amended and our latest publications now reflect a corrected time-series."

My guess is some sort of programming error that was corrected in early April

And my guess is still that someone forgot that March has 31 days.

@Quarantino I agree, but the only way it could be done would be routine weekly testing. I think there maybe thoughts of this in some healthcare settings.

It’s a bit like temperature monitoring at airports- not sure how effective that is supposed to be.

I think there is a good argument for testing teachers and school staff For antibodies over the summer holiday to prepare for a wider opening of schools and colleges in September

What does this achieve if it comes back saying only 5% of teachers having had it?

How does it help us move forward?

I missed it but there was a report according to Dh on Thursday an on the today prog regarding a range of testing pilot schemes across the country.

There's huge holes in data at the moment.

perhaps in an ideal world all households with returning children, and staff, would be tested a week or so before return, as some sort of baseline?

My 10yo son was selected for random antigen testing last week. We are in England.

I suspect this is part of random baseline resting of children before June 1st.

Anyone seen this www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/england-find-coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-in-your-area

Quite interesting. Played about with my authority and neighbouring ones, found huge differences between Basingstoke and Winchester (I'm just in Basingstoke, I've neighbours just in Winchester) obviously Basingstoke very different in terms of socioeconomic profile.

hadenough
When I say I expect a teacher to be clear of CV I know its not guaranteed. But if they have not been exposed then the chances of them having it is low.

I still don't understand what you're saying. How does anyone know if they've been exposed? The fact we don't is the reason for the worldwide lockdown.

I would expect a teacher to be clear of CV when returning to school

We don’t exist in bubbles in the real world! Sure, we’ve been working from home but there is still a risk of having contracted the virus with every interaction we have outside the house - at the supermarket, picking up a prescription, jogging in the park...there are no guarantees.

We'll need a new thread soon!

At the start of all this I expected we'd be acting more proactively by this point. At the moment we are only reacting to people reporting symptoms rather than trying to find the cases on a large scale. I'm just trying to understand why, as I'm not really up to speed with everything.

There is quite a bit of testing going on, for example:

covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-cases-england

Howabout no we don't live in bubbles and that is the point.

I don't see the value of testing all teachers before they go back. Test one day and by the next day the situation could have changed. Schools are different from hospitals and care homes and the risks are not as high.

There is not significant community transmission now. So whilst I accept that a teacher may have CV I think the risk of that is pretty low. I think its unlikely (not impossible) that I have CV because of the actions I have taken.

I should have explained better what I mean.

But I have chosen to take the risk in sending my DC to school. And I don't think testing teachers before they go back is required.

Actually I think weekly testing of primary teachers before and during school return would be a good idea if the increase in numbers could be managed. That way you’d nip infections in the bud as soon as possible, (if a teacher tests positive you’d close their class and test all the pupils) and find out how much the reopening is leading to increased infection.

Someone was asking about sewage testing

SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in primary municipal sewage sludge as a leading indicator of COVID-19 outbreak dynamics

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20105999v1

Actually I think weekly testing of primary teachers before and during school return would be a good idea if the increase in numbers could be managed.

Bit late for that. We have 10 days until the schools are planned to return so roll out of that wouldn't be quick enough to do BEFORE schools return at this point. Remember its taking some time for results to be returned too.

Track and track is supposed to nip infections in the bud. Except the training on this sounds like its dire and the entire thing looks unlikely to be ready and fully operational for the 1st June.

There is a bit of a common theme here in our test, track and trace capacity and capability.

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves @BigChocFrenzy

Supports argument that age biggest factor

Trends of SARS-CoV-2 infection worldwide: Role of population density, age structure, and climate on transmission and case fatality

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.20.20104257v1

Thread 9

Sorry to be so AWOL everyone.
Hope you are all doing well.

Thanks for the update, Shoots

Wonder. I'm south of that county. Was in Winchester 2nd week of March and then had it afterwards. (Well suspected I had it)

Yeah I think I picked it up just before lockdown at school in Fleet, which also has low levels of virus compared to Basingstoke. Wonder whether the schools there had higher rates of absence..