Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 8

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Welcome to thread 8 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Assuming even in care homes that over 90% recover from COVID,
we could multiply the number of care home deaths by 10 to get a v rough number of those infected - who had symptoms

There appears to be approx. 20,000 excess care home deaths in England, though the fact of many care home residents dying in hospital with covid-19 or other causes makes it difficult from the inadequately granular ONS data to make sense of how many have died in care homes who would normally die in hospital

According to the 2011 census, there were 140,500 private nursing home residents, 205,500 private non-nursing care home residents, and 15,500 local authority care home residents.

One would assume the former has the highest death rate.

This is 311,000 or so. 20,000 deaths would be consistent with an R of 3, and death rate of 10%, but it's likely that R is higher in care homes, so it's to be presumed some care homes have escaped covid-19 so far.

One could say that the problem is that by January, 35-40% of the residents will be new and thousands more likely to die, but it's not clear that it is a problem as such, as we've noted similar death trends happen in many winters due to flu.

I find this article not to ring true

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/08/care-home-residents-harvested-left-to-die-uk-government-herd-immunity

for this reason. The virus seems to be extremely effective at circulating in care homes, and it doesn't seem obvious that PPE per se would have stopped it.

that 2011 census is for England btw

Yep, huge discontinuity in risk around average retirement age range

Germany recommends that all those over 60 stay home if possible, because TKI state that the risk significantly increases from then
Even here, most still work for at least some of their early 60s and some commute with public transport.

However, firms I know here have been very flexible and started early retirement schemes - same in the UK ?

I retired on 1 Feb - super timing ! but long planned - at age 63.5
which massively lowered my risk compared to the Petrie Dish of our R&D department of 100 bods brainstorming and spluttering over me 35 hours per week

I haven't come into contact with anyone else indoors since 19 March, no shops, nothing

"by January, 35-40% of the residents will be new"

I wonder if we'll see a sharp drop in people going into non-nursing homes,
at least those people who could manage at all at home, or with family ?

e.g. I've a friend in her late 80s who moved into a care home last Autumn
She's very fit for her age, goes out walking & shopping etc, but her husband had died and she felt isolated

She would certainly not have gone there if the COVID crisis had started then.

"Being male is riskier the younger you are, interestingly. Frailty and co-morbidities overtake sex differences as you age?"

Dear oh dear
Teaboy writing the articles ?

e.g. There are over 400,000 women in the UK today aged 90+ compared with about 180,000 men

so there would be more than twice as many women as men dying in that group, if sex did not affect death rates at 90+

Does anyone have the Uk numbers for past few days. I've seen numbers in 200's. Is that all uk including community and care home deaths? If so that dropped a lot and considering the numbers in hospital has dropped by a few thousand too the survival rates seem better statistically?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/wuhan-plans-to-test-all-11-million-residents-for-coronavirus

Denmark's ....state epidemiologist, Kare Molbak, said no country had yet seen “an actual second wave”, just a slight increase in R-numbers,

adding that with “the knowledge that we have today, I find it very unlikely that we’ll see a second wave”.

Thank you for these threads. They are really interesting.

As an aside, and going back to the dangerous jobs- I used to work with someone who was a commercial fisherman. He lost an arm in a fishing accident. (The metal fishing lines often break and can recoil because of the force of the tension breaking. It is really hard to control them, especially in rough seas. He also saw a colleague die)

Let's hope so big choc

I like the new way they are doing the briefing charts.
More data and clearer.
The hospital admissions are dropping and despite increased testing number of positive cases is dropping quite a bit. I guess that's one of the ways of knowing R is below 1?

I have kept an eye on all of these threads as even though I am absolutely awful with numbers/graphs/statistics, I find the whole sensible, non dramatic approach very calming. So I'm hoping that somebody will be able to explain why the daily death toll doesn't seem to be going down? I feel like its always 600 and something. Do we know why? Is this to be expected? Apologies if this is a really stupid question, the whole thing is blowing my tiny mind

Denmark's ....state epidemiologist, Kare Molbak, saidno country had yet seen “an actual second wave”, just a slight increase in R-numbers,

@BigChocFrenzy, but are those other countries easing lockdown in the same way? When you see the pictures of the tubes this morning almost jam packed as before, with zero ability to socially distance, I just wonder if other countries which haven't seen that second wave, behaved in the same way.

I feel like its always 600 and something. Do we know why? Is this to be expected? Apologies if this is a really stupid question, the whole thing is blowing my tiny mind

It's helpful to look at a rolling figure over 3 or 7 days to get the bigger picture. The numbers on Saturday, Sunday and yesterday were much lower (346, 268, 210) that's because of decreased reporting on the weekend/ holiday. The Tuesday following always shows a spike, which is even higher after a long weekend.

The spike today (627) was lower than last Tuesday (693) and there's been a sustained, slow but steady fall when you look at the last week as a whole.

cathyandclare thank you. That is encouraging, it just seems to be so slow!

And today shows 250 less hospital admissions over the week compared to previous week.

Therefore we can surmise that some of these deaths are people who have been ventilated for a number of weeks.

The Tuesday spikes have been coming down - 627, 693, 909, 1172 ... today’s was after the bank holiday too which makes it look worse.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-12-May-2020.xlsx

Deaths in English hospitals have really come down. Under 50 yesterday from a peak of 900 on the 8th April.

www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

This has been posted before- it’s a great resource - especially if you want to compare the bad flu season 17/18 with where we are now

You can choose country, age group and time range
Hours of entertainment- but I am not mathematically minded enough to calculate the numbers under the curves - has anyone done this? Specifically for 17/18 Flu season and for this year to date?

Deaths in English hospitals have really come down. Under 50 yesterday from a peak of 900 on the 8th April.

Obviously this will only be a small percentage of the actual number for that day - I would expect it to go up to a count of at least 150/200 by the end of the week, as Tuesday tends to be a low reporting day, but yes, even accounting for that it is definitely a positive outcome overall.

Does anyone know how can I search number of cases or deaths by Covid by postcode?

@Ellle

I don't believe that is possible. The NHS data does break it down into hospital trusts, though, if that helps? www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Deaths in English hospitals have really come down. Under 50 yesterday from a peak of 900 on the 8th April.

That's day one reports. Will be 150+ total with absolute certainty for yesterday. Still down a lot but still high.

@Ellle

Try this

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/westbridgfordwire.com/coronavirus-deaths-by-postcode-use-this-interactive-map-enter-your-postcode/%3famp

That map, although good, is only up to deaths registered by 18th April

But thankfully we haven’t been at a sustained 900 deaths per day.