Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 8

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 8 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Children's deaths are an emotive issue, but since the numbers are so small,
imo restarting the economy - and hence schools - should focus more on the risks to adults

e.g. nearly ⅓ of teachers are classed as being in a "vulnerable" category
If the teaching unions decide the risks are too high, schools will not reopen until they are lower
Possibly the same for other unionised public services & businesses

In the general population, there are 2 particular age groups to consider:

^40-65: at higher risk, but normally with decades of working life
These include many in managerial, admin or key roles

65-75: The fit, newly retired, normally with decades of retirement ahead to enjoy

Even when we consider those at age 80,
we should not calculate life expectancy at birth, but at age 80^:

average life expectancy of 10 years for a women, 9 for a man

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07

Can't see any evidence that there has been adjustment for wearing PPE at work in the ONS figures. Many HCPs have been doing so since March.

Thanks for new thread.

and I was making the very specific point that the Uk was in lockdown for the numbers Spiegelhalter collected for his estimation

We don't know how these numbers will change without lockdown

• like Sweden or nearer to pre-lockdown N Italy, unless the Uk locks down again in time ?

Is COVID only mildly seasonal, as is generally thought,
or will the risk sharply diminish over summer ?

The govt would be sensible to wait and keep 3 weeks behind countries on the continent to get a headsup

• since mass testing and contact tracing looks beyond current UK capabilities

Govt plans in full

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/884171/FINALL6.6637COOHMGC199RecoveryFINALL110520v22WEB11.pdf

Thanks very much @BigChocFrenzy.

Have scanned through, read some paragraphs fully and my initial thoughts are:

• Face masks advised at last!

• It seems extremely cautious about likelihood of a vaccine being developed.

(Off to read more)

Thanks Barracker and others.

Finding these threads very helpful.

The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission - a model-based analysis of the Diamond Princess outbreak

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.07.20093849v1.full.pdf

Headlines - asymptomatic cases responsible for large amount of transmission. Estimate 35% of DP was infected in total. Initial R of 9.3 which considering confined environment is comparatively low to some other virus

@Eyewhisker do you have a link to this data? I can't seem to find it on the ONS website and would like to share it with some friends. Thanks.

The data from the ONS on excess deaths last week showed that fewer children are dying than would be expected at this time of year.

Thanks for the new thread

MeridasWisp I can't find any prepared graphs, but raw data by age is in ONS weekly deaths:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Thanks for the new thread.

Can I ask a question that has probably already been asked?

With the lockdown easing, isn't it inevitable that infection rates will go up and so we will just end up back in full lockdown again in a few weeks? Yes, we're still being told to socially distance, but the more people going out to work, to exercise etc, it's obvious isn't it, that some just won't be able to keep that distance and so how can it go any other way?

I rather thought that test and trace needs to be in place if you want to avoid the R going up.

For me, after hearing MNers claim more kids were dying from DV or suicide than COVID,
it was reassuring to see that lockdown actually made them safer when it came to all-cause deaths

Their risk of COVID is also v small, so when it comes to restarting the economy,
imo it is the COVID deaths of the 40+ age group, without lockdown, that might increase significantly.

Kids are basically safe, whatever course is taken

"isn't it inevitable that infection rates will go up and so we will just end up back in full lockdown again in a few weeks?"

Infection rates and deaths will very likely increase
If local hotspots occur, these can be locked down again - if noticed in time

The question is whether exponential growth happens over a significant area of the country

• an increased risk without adequate mass testing & contact tracing -

and what the policy is then

Has the mood in the public shifted to herd immunity and the economy whatever the cost ?
No, there will be a limit

Does this limit include deaths of those aged 80+ and people with health conditions,
or only healthy under-50s ?
Hopefully we don't have to find out

OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult NHS patients

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf+html

"We have demonstrated -for the first time -that

only a small part of the substantially increased risks of death from COVID-19 among non-white groups and among people living in more deprived areas can be attributed to existing disease.

BigChocFrenzy what do you make of that?

Does it suggest that BAME people have a higher risk because they are BAME, regardless of their socioeconomic circumstances, and that people in deprived areas are generally in poor health, even if they don't have a disease?

Or something else?

I thought it was already known that a small number of children are developing a nasty illness Once again BAME seem to be most affected www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31094-1/fulltext

No, they said only that 6 out of 8 were Afro-Caribbean. Not 'BAME' generally. Black people are the group most over represented in covid-19 deaths.

We have demonstrated -for the first time -that only a small part of the substantially increased risks of death from COVID-19 among non-white groups and among people living in more deprived areas can be attributed to existing disease.

To be clear, what they don't do, unlike some more irresponsible publishers, is attributed a cause to this.

Other possible explanations for increased risk among BME groups relate to higher infection risk, including over-representation in ‘front-line” professions with higher exposure to infection, or higher household density.

The best explanation at the moment is that poor people and BME groups generally (of which those with the highest death rate are all poorer than average, while the BME group with the lowest death rate (Chinese) is richer than average ) are more likely to be continuing to working and have a higher R0 than the population as a whole.

It's not however clear that for example that this excess risk is significantly decreasing the already shorter life expectancy of poorer people.

Even when we consider those at age 80,
we should not calculate life expectancy at birth, but at age 80^:

to be clear modal death age is 88.5 for women, and 85.4 for men.

80 is the mean, but even at birth it's slightly misleading to consider a life expectancy of 80, in that this includes a disproportionate weight from the men who kill themselves at 30, or whatever else - it's not in fact a reasonable estimate of the life that we can expect.

Does anybody know where we can get data for new cases, hospitalisations etc? The slides from the press briefing today have changed and they contain no data!

This is anecdotal but some friends and I have noted some differences in poorer socio economic areas and behaviours that may attribute to increased death rates in this group.

we live in a town between 2 close cities and the large industrial estates are city outskirts between us and city iyswim? Those areas are the most deprived. When we head into these estates the people behave differently. They don't queue outside as respectfully and with clear 2m. They don't distance in the shop and have lower levels of patience. I've even seen people lighting fags in the queue! Also in my town we have large social housing estates as well as the mixed estates that are now built. When we go for daily walk we pass many of these estates and there's a stark contrast between people staying at home in their own gardens and cars on drives in the areas of high socio-economic status ((£400-500k houses) and people nipping in and out of each other's gardens and people visiting others in the areas of low socio economic status. These are generally families who have high unemployment anyway and are use to being at home daily.
Of course this is anecdotal but has been observed a lot by different people and it adds another causation or correlation between deaths of low income areas that may influence the death rate beyond just possible poor health anyway.

Does anyone have today's figures?

Oh no, I mainly watched it for the data!

regarding the ons death risk stats, it's interesting that it's completely certain that men in professional jobs, which is a vast group, including e.g. nurses (though men only 10% of nurses) & doctors, but also IT workers, have a lower death rate than average.

while 'low skilled elementary occupations' - i.e. certain construction, factory, cleaning, security, shelf stackers, have a higher risk.

We already know that jobs like meat packers may be at high risk, so this isn't such a surprise, but it's interesting to contrast between what must be big ethnic differences in jobs (e.g. we are told white British people won't do lots of jobs), and the risk inherent to working in say a meat plant with hundreds of people, which is not a risk inherent to being say Bangladeshi.

twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1259831264477089792

Only showing new deaths (210 reported), not infections or the other data like critical care admissions or hospital inpatients tested positive.