Just a few thoughts.....
My council area has a population of just under 800,000. So far recorded deaths are under 250, and recorded cases just over 5000. So we have been "lucky" so far in comparison with other areas - statistically however it is very difficult to assess actual risk as there are possibly many asymptomatic cases and also there is the dying with as opposed to dying of CV19 conundrum. Viral load is supposed to be a key factor in contracting the disease, which is why it makes sense to minimise mixing and do social distancing and wear PPE as appropriate. It is all the unknown variables that make this so hard to navigate as an individual I feel, so personally I'm keeping to the rules, not for myself so much but in case of spreading to the more vulnerable.
That said, the apparent lack of resilience and people focused on mental health impact is an interesting subject. I consider myself robust and have weathered personal storms that have had me teetering on the brink of MH issues, and I have also had a drug induced psychosis due to years of a controlling relationship culminating in having my tea spiked with weed when I was on strong anti-depressants which totally fragged my mind leading to a 28 day section. I am long recovered, but my experience could be said to have been triggered by trying to be in control for too long and having it all taken away, undermining any sense of security in the world.
Everyone has there lynchpins and touchstones that form their identity and frame their ability to cope in a very fast moving, tech driven world - what seems trivial to one may be the reason another can get out of bed in the morning. The constant narrative that this unique situation is a time for sacrifice, personal growth, changing the world etc etc is all well and good if you have the agency to get involved, but for those with challenging home environments and work pressures and the fear of this virus it can't be easy and may well lead to impulsive decision making about risks etc.
I feel alot of this could have been avoided back in the beginning when testing and quarantining could have made a real difference - now it is haphazard and experimental and lacks consistency to really identify the way this thing spreads, and that is the main problem and why people feel angry and conflicted about following rules without much of a clear idea of outcome other than "protect the NHS" . Government strategy in February / March is really what put the NHS at risk, but the buck was quickly passed to gen pop - now it is our fault if infections rise because we aren't following the rules properly, although I think the majority are, when those rules might not have been needed to such a degree if incomers from affected areas had been properly screened, tracked and traced and isolated when it was clear there was a problem, and if mass gatherings had been banned. personally I think those two things were the biggest failings, followed by the lack of testing unless people were hospitalised - that, I feel was actual reckless endangerment on the part of the government.
So just my thoughts - as for the VE celebrations, well, if we didn't see a huge rise after Easter, I don't think we'll see one after this weekend - at least I fervently hope not.
Going back to my county's statistics, even if those figures are out by the same number again, would you say the risk of contagion in the area is high?