So how come Australia is still locked down?

[Teddypops]

So Australia has approx 20 new cases a day and barely no deaths.

So how come they are still locked down?

Yes, I realise what a vaccine is . They don’t all last - again the flu vaccine is the biggest example, ineffective after a few months, and that’s why they need boosters, I’ve needed boosters several times as an adult as I’ve been tested prior to travel and know people who’ve caught things like whooping cough as they’ve lost their immunity, which is why lots of grandparents get revaccinated when grandchildren are born. 65% effective is very low, 2 doses of the measles vaccine gives 99% immunity.

Today, in Australia we have 16 new cases of COVID-19:
www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers#daily-reported-cases

I’m in nsw, and we still cannot drive 20 mins from home to the nearest beach. All pubs are shut. Kids playgrounds are shut. Restaurants can only do takeaway. Commercial air travel is almost non existent. We cannot go outside our local area. We can’t travel interstate. Many of us have lost jobs and may never get them back. Many who have jobs are working from home. School is on the slow crawl to a bit of face to face again instead of only online. I doubt Australia will be open to international travellers (other than NZ) until next year, and if you a returning citizen right now you will be enforced into a two week quarantine (that means stuck in a hotel room, not allowed outside that room at all).

We’re taking it seriously and most people are obeying the rules. Police in coastal areas in particular are enforcing the stay in your local area directive with heavy fines. Sometimes beaches and car parks are shut if it’s been too busy with locals going there.

And then I read a thread like this and I don’t know what to think, if even part of this is a true representation of current events in the UK It’s really worrying:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3903752-disgusted-at-ve-celebrations

@timeisnotaline yep. But that is a different point. First we need to build the herd immunity. Either through a vaccine or naturally. Then let’s see how long before the virus mutates and renders that immunity useless. But that is the same whether you gain the immunity naturally or through a vaccine. Evidence is that this virus is mutating slowly and not as fast as the flu. We all have to pray that is indeed the case. Anyway that is a different point to us all having to gain herd immunity one way or the other. That’s why herd immunity is not a strategy. It is an outcome.

When I mentioned 65% that is not the effectiveness. It is the % of the population who need to be immune to stop the virus being able to spread.

With measles we need 95% of the population to be immune to gain herd immunity. With Covid they ESTIMATE we need 65% to stop the spread. That is because measles is more infectious.

That’s what you mean by the Spanish flu I take it though. A devastating impact from which the survivors emerge stronger. I am really assuming the only herd immunity will be through a vaccine (although no clear view yet on whether they can develop one), as it seems so unrealistic to say we can protect/shield all the at risk for a few years while we process this, and even then they are at risk every time they step outside or let someone inside. The middle path though is if they come up with some treatments that work, so it’s safer to catch it. That would be a big help, to understate it! And there’s a large and growing amount of clinical data and lots of people working on it - I’m pretty confident there will be multiple improvements in treatments before a vaccine. And that will be absolutely a global effort so here’s hoping for global cooperation and support - which I believe there is already.

@timeisnotaline yep agree with all your post. Yes ideally we would create the herd immunity with a vaccine. I think my point though is that the longer we wait for a vaccine the more herd immunity will be created naturally. So if we have to wait 10 years for a vaccine then we will generate the herd immunity naturally anyway. My point is that it is going to happen whether or not it is anyone’s ‘strategy’. It is not a strategy. It will just happen. Yes the scary thing is what you are saying. We are going to need to shield the vulnerable until we get that herd immunity. Reports are out that Sweden is nearly there and enough people have caught it and have the antibodies for it to not spread anymore. But that report was in a Dutch newspaper - I haven’t seen it.

Spanish flu. Yes the ones that survived it would have been rendered immune and so once herd immunity was achieved it stopped spreading

My guess is that they are trying to organise a longer term plan. Rules for testing and contact tracing, social distancing and quarantining. Once every thing is set they can ease off and be relatively safe.

Crap testing and lack of decent contact tracing including testing asymptomatic contacts is why our lockdown will fail.

China had to recently lockdown another city of 10million. Look how aggressively the Chinese are contact tracing

“ One persisting cluster in Harbin centred on an 87-year-old man called Chen who had stayed at two hospitals since April 2, four days after dinner at home with his son’s friends, two of whom later tested positive. By Tuesday, Chen had infected 78 people, with 55 confirmed, though 23 who tested positive have yet to show virus symptoms.”

My guess is that they are trying to organise a longer term plan. Rules for testing and contact tracing, social distancing and quarantining. Once every thing is set they can ease off and be relatively safe

We have all that. We have a plan. We are slowly relaxing already but it means that we can put a hold on if there are flare ups. It would be silly to let everyone back to normal immediately because then any tiny pockets will spread rapidly and we will be in the same position as the UK. We can’t let off restrictions until we are clear there are nearly no cases so that any spread will be easily traced and contained. We are not aiming to reduce the impact. We are aiming for elimination. And that is worth waiting an extra few weeks for

I don’t think the low numbers in Australia are just down to geography and isolation.

Look at some of the other countries doing well. South Korea, Taiwan and even Hong Kong. All densely populated and near or in the case of King Kong even part of China.

Sorry mrbob are you Aussie or kiwi? Oz is not aiming for elimination although may achieve it in some states at least until opening up. We are hoping for zero cases but expect to keep seeing new ones I think.

Interesting if Sweden has nearly achieved herd immunity, I gave up on it after seeing an estimate that 20% of New Yorkers have now had it. That number is just so far off 65% and it’s looked like a warzone there.

@timeisnotaline. They are mass antibody testing New Yorkers now. We will soon know how many New Yorkers are immune. I also think there will be a high immunity in London. Loads of people I know have had it in London. I have ordered an antibody test for me and my family as we suspect we had it (I know for sure my DH did)

Yes I read that Sweden are close to herd immunity now. That was in the Dutch press.

They’ve been testing New Yorkers although the stat I remember I think was from poo samples. This one is just from people: 15% isn’t very high! www.sbs.com.au/news/nearly-14-per-cent-of-new-yorkers-have-had-covid-19-study

@timeisnotaline omg !! Yes now they are doing blood tests. Remember we are only 2 months in. 15-20% of a population is high. If a vaccine is at least 12 months away I would be willing to bet herd immunity naturally before then.

All the countries that have done well like Australia and Taiwan basically ignored the WHO’s advice that there was no benefit to closing borders. When clearly there is.

I’d like to see an inquiry in to their advice throughout this as it’s been really crap.

Sorry by poo samples I mean sewage systems or apartment pipes or similar to get a view on how endemic it is. Not please provide one poo in this receptacle. Thank you sir, next!

@timeisnotaline

Yes I read that Sweden are close to herd immunity now

I suspect that's why our lockdown is as loose as it is. Hopefully a lower chance of a second spike

I am amazed at the claims that the UK couldn't have stopped travel or only had 4 more days than France or 10 more days than Italy to prepare.

4-10 days is a long time in a pandemic crisis! And the UK could have stopped travel, except to people returning home, and ordered an early strict lockdown including mandatory home quarantine for travellers. The UK government chose not to do this.

Now, whether the UK approach or other countries' approaches will prove better in the longterm is not clear. But to claim that it is impossible for the UK to have reacted differently is astonishing.

@worstwitch18 They addressed this early on. The reason they didn’t stop travel is because it would have bought 2-3 days extra only and the downside of stopping travel outweighed this upside. Everything would have been discussed and thought of and an active decision taken. It’s not like they are looking now and saying whoops we missed that obvious measure.

@Bool I would love to see their modelling. Stopping travel + nationwide lockdown + strict home quarantine would surely do more than buy 2-3 days. I am not saying the UK government was advised by fools or even that the wrong decision for the long term was made, however I am saying that there were other options that were not pursued and that may have had very different outcomes. Advisory teams in different countries came up with very different approaches, as seen by comparisons in this thread.

To my eyes, the UK had vast advantages over continental Europe.

It’s not like they are looking now and saying whoops we missed that obvious measure.

No, but they may be looking now and saying, whoops we should have taken that obvious measure instead of dismissing it.

I think we just blindly followed the WHO advice on the travel.

Australia went early on this. Surely this is why (combined with testing) they have so few cases?

So can’t we already see that the WHO advice on not stopping flights from affected areas was wrong?

Why are we quarantining people from
June when we didn’t at the start of this pandemic when we had a chance to get a handle on this?

All the countries that ignored the WHO ‘advice’ are the ones doing the best. Shambles of an organisation.

WHO - not so much shambles as hamstrung by their financers.

@Bool do you realise that it has not been proven that having had Covid19 means you are immune?