I don’t understand

[Slazengerbag]

The rumours are flying around about lockdown being eased on Monday, schools back in June and so on. If this happens what was the point of the lockdown to start with? I know it was to protect the NHS, but are we not going to be back in the same position we were in 8 weeks ago? I know we have more ventilators and the nightingale hospitals but is that all we needed to lift lockdown?

I understand lockdown can’t go on for the sake of the economy but is it not too soon with the amount of people still dying and contracting the virus?

I'm in Ireland and we are starting a gradual program of relaxing restrictions. Like most of Europe.

Surely that will be the case for UK too?

And some restrictions will continue eg social distancing, hygiene measures, indefinitely.

We have had a chance to test anti-viral treatments, sourced PPE abroad during a world shortage, encouraged production of PPE in the UK, given businesses a chance to reconfigure their work spaces so that people can work and social distance, started an app to track and trace (unknown if it's fit for purpose yet), built more hospitals to ensure spare capacity, mobilised the army to create pop up test centres, extra ICU beds. We have also seen how other countries. All while keeping the spread to manageable levels.
The country is in a better position to cope with the second wave now.

The whole point is so the NHS isn’t overwhelmed. Worst case scenario is that there will be endless restrictions to some extent that are tightened and lifted depending upon the resources the NHS has available. At best we can hope for social distancing and people being sensible to be enough that we stay steady on the graph. Otherwise it’s waiting for a vaccine or to get it and have temporary immunity (longer term than that is still not known), assuming we survive.

There was no point

I think Johnson just panicked or got incentivised by the idea of a mass behavioural control experiment

Also people were taking their kids out of schools

Now we know 15,000 hospital patients suffered early discharge to care homes,.....

Lockdown was only meant to spread out deaths a bit so services didn’t get too overwhelmed

It shouldn’t have happened at all really.

I thought the point was to get the R below 1 so they could control the infections better and it wouldn't spread exponentially (as it was before lockdown) and they needed the lockdown to do it. While doing so also bought them time to get hospitals, PPE, track and trace etc in place IF the second wave comes and they can't keep R below 1.

In addition to the various factors Diana listed, it may be that there are fewer cases with the serious complication of secondary infection and pneumonia- that may be quite strongly seasonal. If so then maybe it's better for more of the population to catch it in the next few months rather than next winter.

Example of a study of the seasonality of pneumonias

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20030547

If R stays below 1, there won’t be a second wave. The number of cases will gradually decline, until eventually there will be only small outbreaks which are contained by Test, track and trace.

The point of lockdown was 4fold:

1. To get the NHS to the point that it can cope with large numbers of people being ill.
2. To get NHS testing capabilities up to scratch, we can see from Germany/South Korea , who had a much higher lab testing capability that it cut the number of cases
3. To get people used to staying in more. Some people are not going to be able to go out much before we have a vaccine or a cure and the vulnerable are going to have to stay in for longer on lockdown compared to other people. Some people may decide to lockdown for longer too and they need to have their work/school/life options explained to them.
4. To develop the technology to allow us to track and trace and to also get people used to the idea that we have to do this.

Most people though need to accept that we need to get on with our lives and also accept that for the majority of healthy children the risk of them having serious complications is exceptionally small. If we don't the future will be very bleak.

For the majority of healthy under 60's non-obese women and under 50's non-obese men the risk too is very, very tiny.

70-75 years ago many men and women fought in world war 2 to in order to give to their children a better life. It seems bizarre that most healthy individuals are really resistant to doing the same when the odds are so much in our favour.

I somehow don't think lockdown will be eased. It is confusing hearing all these rumours and fake news. One time you are hearing about people dying in intensive care and the next week people are saying that lockdown will be eased. I would far rather have lockdown extended to be safe, then rules changing and then there being a second peak of it.

Hear, hear, underneaththeleash!

It is a time to use common sense and caution, not knuckle under and be paralyzed by fear.

You answered your own question. Lock down is to ensure rh nhs isn’t breached, it has not been and has a lot of spare capacity, as such it can be eased.

Lock down was never to eradicate it. It is better to use the capacity now than to wait until the start of flu season when capacity is low and really screw your population over. The disease needs to be managed. Smoothed. It can’t be eradicated without a treatment or vaccine.

So no it’s not too early, it’s the right time.

I somehow don't think lockdown will be eased

Eh what now? Boris himself announced it in the house this afternoon. Watch the news!

The point of lockdown was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. Which it has done.

We need 80% of the population to get covid. This is herd immunity and then protects the shielded from catching it.

So. Lifting lockdown will encourage more spread, but because the NHS has beds and staff now we can treat the seriously unwell.

When they start getting overwhelmed again we lockdown again.

We are different now.

We will behave differently. Well most of us anyway.

We are coming into the summer and this is the period that the NHS has more capacity.

The virus isn't going anywhere so we need to let it run its course a bit whilst trying to keep the R as low as possibly.

As bad as it sounds we probably need people to go into hospital over the next few months and hopefully proper care will be available to give them the best chance of recovery.

That will mean we maybe avoid as serious a 2nd wave as we would do if we locked down for another few months as many seem to want.

Also its run rampant through care homes, so that aspect may not be as bad in the future (even though it should never have been allowed to happen).

I would imagine we are at our healthiest when the weather is nicer.

We can only do this with proper testing and contact tracing and adequate ppe for all that need it.

It will be a very gradual ease with it not affecting most people initially. Just some more shops and takeaways opening up. Maybe less restrictions as to what you can do in parks. Then in early June some years (like 10 and 12) might go back to school. Social distancing will be the last to go.

Wish people would stop going in about herd immunity! It’s already been recognised as being a stupid strategy that will result in thousands of deaths. No definite proof you get immunity or if you do how long it lasts, or if there is a mutation if you’d be immune to that.

It isn't going to be lifted, just a gradual easing process. Im guessing that a few more things will be allowed to be open and there will be less restrictive rules on reasons for being out of the house.

I am really hoping some outdoor activities are allowed to open soon.

As others say not has to be a gradual thing. But for most of us, just having restrictions relaxed a little bit at a time will make our lives so much better.

If 80% of the population get the infection we will need to spread that over ten years to avoid overwhelming the NHS. Even assuming they have the staff to run four times the usual levelOf critical and intensive care. It's just a ridiculous approach.

That's why they say keep R below 1 . That means only a small fraction of the population get infected. That means significant restrictions going forward.

@JellyBelly78 herd immunity WITHOUT lockdown is dangerous. But we do actually need 80% of the pop to get it. In all likelihood there isn’t going to be a vaccine.

People are going to die from this, healthy people included. But without a large majority getting the disease and becoming immune we will be in lockdown forever, and then economies will crash and we’re truly fucked.

Teddy I disagree. I do think there will be a vaccine and I think it will be available before the end of next year.

We will not get to 80% infected with the actions that are being taken so will not get herd immunity that way.

We just need to learn how to live with the virus until we can be vaccinated.

The gov need to communicate which it is
Herd
Or keeping below 1 for track and trace

If it's herd then we need to know they wont be doing the tracing and testing and are basically sending kids in to create a second wave.

It doesnot look like any country except sweden is intending on herd inmunity....

They need to be straight as it makes a difference to people's choices re sending kids back in.
Tbh im not convinced the gov is capable of tracking and tracing and keeping it below 1.

Wish people would stop going in about herd immunity

Was about to say exactly the same thing. That whole policy made us look like idiots in front of the rest of the world. Even Sir Patrick Vallance has said it was a mistake but people still keep banging on about it as if it was a desirable possibility.

Well I have been listening to the daily briefings and R below 1 is repeatedly stated as a key thing

Bluntness100

Eh what now? Boris himself announced it in the house this afternoon. Watch the news!”

Indeed, no detail yet though. It will be a slow, gradual process. People are expecting too much too soon.