It MIGHT have been here before Feb/March

[Whattodowhattodooo]

Just seen this tweet.

**A French Doctor has claimed that the virus was in France in December, a month before the first confirmed case.

Dr Cohen tested old blood samples for patients with respiratory symptoms and found a positive result.

This is worth investigating - it could be significant. - Prof Karol Sikora

Whilst it's France and not UK, I think the possibility should be investigated over here too. I am 99% sure my Dad had it beginning of January.

In a population of over 66 million in England

Even couple of hundred accounts on here wouldnt constitute being particularly wide spread... presuming these are all people in the uk which they might not be

Surely it’s wiser to keep an open mind given China isn’t exactly renowned for truthful stats.
DD and I were ill in December and a lot of her school were off. Symptoms were similar and whilst I concede it could have been a virus I am not accepting that as a fact until I get a test...will be interesting to see if we’ve already had it.

Think of it as flu or measles, as in a way it is - both genetic material packed in protein.

Symptoms of the flu vary from person to person. It has mutated more than once since the original strain, also a reason why the vaccinne 'works' for some and not others.

One of the theories about the spike is that earlier in the year, it mutated and this either created two different strains, or they were already there. One, in particular, is aggressive.

I predict more countries over the next week, announcing confirmed cases from last year.

I was only tested because of other things going on at the time, otherwise, I wouldn't have been included in the figures. The same will be the case for many others.

It won't be until we start screening for the anti-bodies that a true idea of figures can be achieved. If like the original Sars, anti-bodies remained for 2/3 years after getting it.

@palacegirl77

The 1% is derived from NYC... 0.225% have died (based on 18,909 deaths and a population of 8.398m)

www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_York_City

And c.20% of NYC residents have antibodies. Be attached an article below indicating 19.9% but other studies have shown similar figures.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.axios.com/coronavirus-new-york-antibody-test-f4fbed78-646f-4b46-90b8-5e8ca75380e4.html

If 0.225% (round down to 0.2%) have died and 20% have evidence of infection, that equates to 1%.

NYC results are arguably much more reliable than many of the earlier estimates as they are based on a large population that has been very badly effected (giving a huge sample size) whilst also having excellent data recording.

I am 99% sure I had it over Christmas. I've never been so unwell in all my life. It was awful. I felt like I had flu but not ifyswim

Me too. Felt like the worst cold ever but not quite a flu. dd had it too but not as bad and it definitely was nothing like the actual flu she had earlier in the year.

There was a bug going round DSs school the week before the end of term in December, DS had a cough for a few weeks, I had a cough for over two months, felt awful over Christmas and then had a couple of days where I didn’t want to move in mid Jan so not a normal flu type reaction. I would be very interested in an antibody test to see if we have already had COVID

Even couple of hundred accounts on here wouldnt constitute being particularly wide spread... presuming these are all people in the uk which they might not be

Even if only couple of hundred in the whole of the UK had Covid in early January in the UK, with a R0 of 2.5 (which is probably an underestimate), 25 million+ would have been infected by the start of March.

There was a MN thread about exactly this in March.

I’m not sure I believe it though. If was here in January, how come there wasn’t a sudden rise in the death rate from then?

There was a ‘flu’ death spike in Feb which might have been covid. No one was being tested.

One of the theories about the spike is that earlier in the year, it mutated and this either created two different strains, or they were already there. One, in particular, is aggressive.

I suppose that’s possible, but in essence, there are two very different Coronavirus diseases.... one pretty mild, one really nasty. On that basis I had Coronavirus earlier in the year when I had a common cold! The version that made the news in China was clearly the nasty version, and that’s what everyone is meaning when they refer to it.... So I think it’s rather disingenuous to say that you believe you had Covid (ie the virus causing the pandemic and 100,000s of deaths), when in actual fact you think you had something much milder.

My family all had awful colds/flu just before Christmas but that doesn’t mean it was Covid. I watched the channel 4 documentary on what it is like to have coronavirus, there was a fit healthy 22 year old that could not get a full sentence out because he was so short of breath. I’ve never had a cough/cold where that has happened. There was also a shortage of the flu vaccine here so none of us had had this.

I'm also wondering whether me being on a biologic immunosuppressant drug is the reason when it ripped through my family, I recovered far quicker than dh and dd, neither of which are on an inhibitor drug like I am.

And ds showed no symptoms at all despite being in the house with us.

Convinced my dad had it in January, exactly the same as op's dad, two rounds of antibiotics and it hung around for about a month. Will be good if they get the tests ready

Does anyone who claims to have had in December actually understand the concept of exponential growth? Or that December was the height of the flu season.

To me.... The interesting thing here is that a few people are saying they are Bristol based. I too am near ish to Bristol and my family all horrifically ill in late December.

Those who think they may have had it... Geographically where are you? Wonder if there is a link?

Second wave theory is interesting!

No I think we can all say with certainty you didn’t have it in September

Did I have it in Christmas 2018? I had really bad flu and a cough.

mealychump I'm convinced DS2 had it early Jan, i then got the same as him 2 weeks later. We were both scarily ill..
DS1 who lives in Bristol was here for Christmas week.

Another SW/Bristol based person here and yes, dh had something with very similar symptoms in Dec/Jan as did dds. As did 50% of my office. I had a cold.

Btw, my office is v close to the EDF office in Bris which has a lot of Chinese visitors.

I did have something v v like covid in early March as did my boss. There was a confirmed positive test up the chain so if I have had it I think it was then not earlier.

Be v interested in the anti body test.

Also I swear I've seen something which indicates Bris had a spike in respiratory deaths in Jan/Feb above the norm for that time of year but may have made that up.

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow
There is no question about it in the UK in January, cases were getting confirmed then.

By which time it had confirmed in USA, France, South Korea, Australia, Nepal, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, India, Philippines, Germany, Canada, UAE and more. 27 countries by the beginning of February.

@Derbygerbil You've said - The 1% is derived from NYC... 0.225% have died (based on 18,909 deaths and a population of 8.398m) Firstly you can only go on deaths of confirmed cases - which is 13536. Those deaths as a percentage of confirmed cases is 7.9%. You cannot possibly assume that the 8 million residents have all had it.

Also I swear I've seen something which indicates Bris had a spike in respiratory deaths in Jan/Feb

I’m experiencing the same phenomenon - I’m sure I read a thread on here decemberish time during a conversation about a bug going round where a nurse had commented on a lot of people coming in with a nasty virus they weren’t familiar with.

I do think we’ve all got a lot of time on our hands at the moment though - it’s very easy to connect dots that don’t actually mean anything.

I take comfort in the fact that if I’ve thought of it I’m pretty sure someone with the resources and knowledge to research it has too.

Bristol.
Terribly painful to breathe in late Oct, coughed right through Nov, even after antibiotics. Didnt feel quite right until Jan.

Btw, my office is v close to the EDF office in Bris which has a lot of Chinese visitors.

Isn't that the Bristol office which was shut due to that China origin covid case?

www.business-live.co.uk/economic-development/coronavirus-edf-energy-deep-cleans-17852834

www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/coronavirus-outbreak-somerset-statistics-case-3914315

Wonder if that was the first.

Yep that's the one.

FWIW, I don't particularly think we had it in jan (I think I might have in March).

I do find it interesting that we seem to have been relatively light on cases in this wave but there may be many reasons (not least the shite public transport). I just hope it continues