It MIGHT have been here before Feb/March

[Whattodowhattodooo]

Just seen this tweet.

**A French Doctor has claimed that the virus was in France in December, a month before the first confirmed case.

Dr Cohen tested old blood samples for patients with respiratory symptoms and found a positive result.

This is worth investigating - it could be significant. - Prof Karol Sikora

Whilst it's France and not UK, I think the possibility should be investigated over here too. I am 99% sure my Dad had it beginning of January.

so donquixotedelamancha all those people that had it and it was flu - do flu jabs not work then?

• @donquixotedelamancha i did not* have the flu in December i went to the drs they were puzzled that the normal dose of steroids i have for a chest infection was not touching it .China have not been truthful from the start .I stick by i say i am sure i have had it .

do flu jabs not work then?

No. Flu jabs don't stop all flu by a long chalk.

There are many, many different viruses which cause flu symptoms. People may well have had a coronavirus in December, just not the coronavirus.

If the virus was in France just after Christmas why is it so hard to believe it wouldn’t have been here then?

It's not completely impossible that a few people didn't get it early (though the distribution pattern makes that very unlikely in the UK, it's very likely that did happen in Italy, for example). The issue is that this suggestion of lots of people having had in it December/January is bobbins.

But if it was circulating freely for months, how come hundreds weren’t dying from it until March/April?

(Sorry if this has already been answered)

I had an illness ("flu" the doctor said) with all the right symptoms which started (mildly) on 22nd December, flattened me on 27th December, remained until 8th January and left me wiped out and exhausted until early February.

I had a positive antigen test result on 23rd April. So either what I got in December wasn't COVID-19 despite having all the hallmarks of it, and I was asymptomatic some time later, or in was in the UK in December. An antigen test can't prove when I had it, but it's very coincidental that I suffered the worst flu of my entire life and then caught it after that without noticing.

I had a positive antigen test result on 23rd April.

Surely a positive antigen test proves you didn't have it in December, because you were not immune and got it some time in April?

The issue is that this suggestion of lots of people having had in it December/January is bobbins.
Could you possibly explain the exact science behind your claim? Perhaps with references. Because up until yesterday every scientific expert said it wasn't in Europe last year, and now it appears that it was.

We are still in the dark about lots of things, and even if you were a scientific expert, that wouldn't mean diddly squat right now as they still don't have much of a clue.

Moondust001

May I ask why you had the antigen test if you were asymptomatic. I thought we weren't testing anyone then unless substantially symptomatic?

@Moondust001 out of interest are you in the SW?

Surely a positive antigen test proves you didn't have it in December, because you were not immune and got it some time in April?
Ermm, you don't know what an antigen test is? An antigen test tests for antibodies AFTER someone has had the virus, and typically can't reliably test that until some weeks after you have it, when antibodies have replicated sufficiently. An antigen test is not used to detect whether someone has it, but whether they had it. Oh, and very few people in the UK have had antigen tests.

My Aunt travelled from Canada to the UK in late November. Less than a week after her arrival she was knocked off her feet by an illness which (in retrospect) had all the signs of Covid-19.

She'd just about recovered by the New Year, the hacking cough being the last symptom to go.
Obviously no one can state that she'd been victim of C-19, but as she said, 'I'll be very surprised if it wasn't '.

Flu jab is based on the original strain. Certain characteristics remain the same even though it has mutated a lot since. So the full effectiveness depends on the strain.

When nCoV mutated back in February is where the Science comes from about the spike.

I'm confused about the distribution pattern. It was confirmed in France and USA in by the middle of January, so surely that should be an indication of the spread. Never mind the other 20 something countries that had has confirmed cases by the end of January.

And prior to the first confirmed test, deaths wouldn't have been recorded for that. There might have been a spike in respiratory-related deaths. Will be interesting to compare those over the past 6 months with the previous year. Same with overall hospital admissions.

Just to point out, I'm not convinced either way.... I am inclined to believe the scientists and the big bods. I certainly don't think anything is being 'hidden' from us.

I don't get how it didn't get here sooner if the first cases in China were in Nov.

I don't get how if it did get here sooner, we didn't know!

So a question/uncertainty about both scenarios.

I'm not 'excited' about having been here longer. I'm not changing what I do or saying 'oh I've DEFINITELY had it'. What I am saying is simply 'it's interesting that something very similar in symptoms to Corona seems to have circulated in December'. It's just interesting 🤷

@mealychump Of Scotland, yes! But I suspect you meant England. I travel a lot and I suspect I may have contracted it in an airport. I hadn't (obviously) been anywhere that I might have contracted it, but I was in an airport or two five days before it started.

@donquixotedelamancha I am not sure who the "we" is in your sentence. If it is the "royal" country "we", no the NHS does not yet have a reliable test because they bought rubbish ones that don't work. There are private centres, and there are other countries testing for antigens.

I think, I and friends had it in January, person coming back from Nor

north Italy after Xmas. Loads of Chinese brought in to work in sweatshops there

Perhaps original strain A is milder but similar enough to our Strain C to afford some resistance? Perhaps strain A circulated here last year and afforded us some antibodies?

So let's say you have mild Strain A sometime between Oct & Jan, feel like shit, recover, then more severe Strain C becomes prevalent, but when Strain A survivor contracts it they simply feels very slightly unwell as their antibodies are able to identify the infection and fight it more quickly?

How did the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu work? Did it kill 1st wave survivors or did it kill those who didn't get it the 1st time round?

Ermm, you don't know what an antigen test is? An antigen test tests for antibodies AFTER someone has had the virus, and typically can't reliably test that until some weeks after you have it, when antibodies have replicated sufficiently.

No. That's an antibody test. An antigen test is for the antigens on the virus itself. We are doing a lot of those. Antigens disappate by around 9 days after symptoms first emerge.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-coronavirus-tests-daily-target-matt-hancock-covid-19-latest-a9494886.html

@SpokeTooSoon from catching it to dying would be approximately 6 weeks - so deaths in March would have contracted it in January. Those people catching it then had to catch it from somewhere, ergo it was here long before that, most likely in a lesser strain.

Surely a positive antigen test proves you didn't have it in December, because you were not immune and got it some time in April?

Erm no, it shows up in the test after you have had it. It looks for the markers left in the body. All it says is that the person has had it, and assuming this works in the same way as other viruses, the body should retain a memory of having the virus and start fighting it naturally.

Research on Sars, showed antibodies remained for 2-3 years after recovery.

If the person had symptoms in December and only in December, it is possible the person had a strain of the virus then. All the person can do is pass on the info. And don't forget, when it started getting talked about in March, it was widely linked to people shitting themselves, now we know this isn't the case for everyone.

As soon as a proper antibody test is available for me I will have it

There is no way someone who is obese, unfit, 50 plus, on immune suppressant medication would have NO symptoms

So it WOULD mean to me I had it at Christmas (in London) where I travelled on 3 forms of public transport every day - and was ill for 3 weeks.

Erm no, it shows up in the test after you have had it. It looks for the markers left in the body...Research on Sars, showed antibodies remained for 2-3 years after recovery.

Yes, that's antibodies. PP says they've had an antigen test.

I am pretty sure I was exposed at the end of January thanks to a colleague of a friend who traveled from Australia via Beijing to the US.

Friend and friend's child with underlying condition experienced classic symptoms, child much worse than parent (symptoms resembled recurring severe asthma attacks, with fever - was given oxygen at doctor's office). Parent experienced a very heavy cold, stayed home two days.

I visited right in the thick of it, child sat/ lay on my knee, I read several stories. I got a heavy cold that left me feeling very drained of energy.

,,,

It makes very little sense to believe it was here so early.

Even if there was one case on, say, 1st December, with cases doubling every 2.5 days, by lockdown you would have had millions of cases (think 2^40 over 100 days) and we would have herd immunity by now.

To believe the anecdote you would have to believe that both infectivity and virulence started low and then increased, for which there is scant (or no) evidence.

There are some interesting anecdotes on this thread but they don’t trump the population statistical modelling.