Coronaphobia - people just have to get a grip

[wakeupitsabeautifulmorning]

I'm really worried that irrational fears are going to absolutely ruin the country as well as putting people at massive risk of dying from other things or developing mental health. And God knows what parents with it will do to their dc's mental health and development (keeping dc off school until there's a vaccination etc.)

Well said OP. I think the time has definitely come for people to Feb a grip. We could go back to normal but just tell people to do their own risk assessment and keep mindful of hygiene and their responsibility to keep themselves as healthy as possible -sensible diet, no smoking, washing hands, exercise,etc.
If people want to shield fur all eternity then let 'em but not at the cost of the state.

Of course number of cases makes a difference. We only need to look at the numbers requiring hospital admissions (including those being turned away and subsequently dying). And the number of deaths. Then we need to think about our low hospital capacity. Lockdown lifts when cases are still high, infection spreads fast. Huge increase in cases. No capacity (or HCP) to treat them.

The number of current cases makes a difference, the number of past cases does not.

If you assume that no one has immunity and lift the lockdown on that basis and it turns out 20% do, in fact, have immunity the risk will lower not higher.

For track and trace to work efficiently the number of active and newly diagnosed cases needs to be reasonably low.

It might make sense for private day schools to reopen first (when it's safe to try it). Much smaller class sizes than state. Social distancing will be more achievable. Boarding schools would need to hold off a little longer.

@ToffeeYoghurt how do you know 50% hospitalised in italy were younger? Under 50s make up only 30% of confirmed cases so that seems like a staggering amount hospitalised so i really hope thats not true

Judging by what many feel is using their common sense on MN I would not trust the general public to use their common sense

What that equates to is what works for me and my family

Private schools do have smaller classes but still if you have 20 or 15 in a class how could you safely social distance - you can’t

For trace and track to truly work we need to be able to monitor peoples movements. It worked well in Germany until that point. In South Korea it works well as the tracking people’s movements has been implemented

I don’t believe there will be any social distancing in primary schools or childcare. You could look at reducing numbers of contacts by maybe having small groups who stay together all the time during classes, lunch, playtime etc but I suspect that is the best you will do.

I don’t think that is fatal to reopening schools however. If the R value is low (via contact tracing, those who are able to SD doing so etc) there should be low levels of virus in circulation in the community.

Enthusiasm I'm the last person to advocate any kind of premature end to lockdown. Including schools reopening. I meant we might perhaps start with private day schools when it was safe to trial reopening. Which won't be June. Possibly September but we'll have to wait and see at this point. Most countries are doing or planning to do phased returns to schools and workplaces. It makes sense. But of course only when it's safe to try. Other options (for the future, when it's safer to do so) to consider are age related and/or regional easing of lockdown. Might be a bad idea but they're options to consider. Not necessarily commit do.

@Jrobhatch29 It was widely reported at the time. I'll try to post one of the reports later. If I recall correctly it was 50% of those hospitalised were under 60s. Perhaps largely 40-50s. Relatively young and certainly not elderly. Many still have young children at that age.

I can’t see many parents of children in private schools being content to hand over thousands of pounds for their children to be essentially home schooled if state schools are open.

The WHO have said we should be looking to Sweden as a template for life going forward. They have kept primary schools and childcare open throughout (to all not just key workers). Lockdown will not last as long as some people wish it to, it just won’t.

Whenever it ends will be too soon for some and not soon enough for others.

I have had a look @toffeeyoghurt and this independent article

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-update-young-people-hospital-luca-lorini-bergamo-a9402531.html and others in March that has the following

According to official figures released last week, twelve per cent of those who have been treated in intensive care are aged between 19 and 50.

Approximately 52 per cent are between 51 and 70 years old, with the remainder all over 70.

But I cant find anything else!

Mmm The WHO are likely to change their mind in a few days time it wasn’t long ago Sweden was in their bad books

Sweden is a completely different country to the UK and many other European countries. Small population and only a few areas with high population density. Compared to their neighbours with similar population they have had a high numbers of deaths

This is hospitalisation rates by the CDC but im not sure i understand the scales they have used?
Its the same info in two different formats. For example the 18-49 group im not sure if its 2.5% out of 100,000?

@jrobhatch29

My understanding of that graph is that 2.5 people aged 18-49 per 100,000 people in the population as a whole have been hospitalised.

By my very rough calculations that will equate to a total of approximately 1,650 people hospitalised in that age group assuming a population of 66 million.

Thanks for the links. Things obviously change as time passes. This is what I read.
www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-italian-doctors-warn-covid-19-can-make-young-people-seriously-ill-11961000
They ended up not intubating anyone over 60 because they were so overwhelmed. They have more capacity than us.

The only reason we have any capacity is because we're simply not admitting people to hospital. They're either dying at home or only taken in at a stage when survival is less likely. Early treatment is key.

Sweden is completely different to us. Very small population. We have 66 million. They have about 10 million. More spread out, 50% live in single person households. Far easier to socially distance. They also have a much better funded healthcare system with greater capacity than us. Additional as someone else says, their Scandinavian neighbours who did implement lockdown have lower number of cases and less deaths.

The CDC graph relates to America doesn't it? Different circumstances to us again. They have a much lower number of cases and death rate per million population than us (and Italy).

I'm any event, really so what if more patients are over 50? Are you arguing for an age related easing of lockdown? It's one option to consider.

I’m sure the WHO are aware of the demographics of Sweden.

Im not arguing for age related exit at all... I really dont know the way out. Alot of people seem to think beginning with under 40s seems wise but my argument is you need to understand the risk to under 40s first. Yes the death rate is low but is the chance of serious illness? Here is rates in new york...i know its america but its the same virus and a very hard hit area. Suggests 10% of 18-44 year olds were hospitalised. However thats based on confirmed cases so the actual rate will much lower when you factor in people who havent been tested.

X

Here are the numbers of deaths from Italy I have found:

www.statista.com/statistics/1105061/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/

Just under 300 deaths were people under 49, obviously that doesn’t give the numbers who were in intensive care who recovered.

That's a very good point @Jrobhatch29
Age related easing of lockdown seems popular from what I've read on some threads but you're absolutely right. We don't yet know enough about the long-term effects on younger people (or anyone). We can't rush ending lockdown. Not yet. We might know more I'm a month or so. If so we might we able to consider options including, depending on what we know, age related or regional.

Thanks @Alex50 What we really need to consider is how many more might have died without treatment. Bearing in mind Italy has more capacity than us. That's one of the risks (aside from the economic chaos) of a second wave.

This is interesting too from spain. Sorry for data overload ha. It does seem to say out of all the people hospitalised, under 40s were a very small percentage.

Have you worked for the Nudge unit for awhile OP?

I'm not sure many actually will keep their children off school till there is a vaccine. Once people are told schools are open, the pressure will be on, peer pressure and school fines will soon sort it all out.

Nudge Unit

People won't be sending their children in if the school staff are on strike. They don't want to put themselves or their families at risk. You can't train up new teachers on mass overnight.

They also couldn't go to school if all the staff were off sick. And the bus and train drivers who get them there and back.

Most people likely won't want to send their children in too soon. Aside from the risks, it's incredibly disruptive for the children to have them return for a very brief period. They'd only have to stay off again once we have the second lockdown (that a second wave would necessitate).