Coronaphobia - people just have to get a grip

[wakeupitsabeautifulmorning]

I'm really worried that irrational fears are going to absolutely ruin the country as well as putting people at massive risk of dying from other things or developing mental health. And God knows what parents with it will do to their dc's mental health and development (keeping dc off school until there's a vaccination etc.)

Someone else has just referred to the numbers killed in car accidents in the past year which was 1800. How many have currently died from COVID19 so far?

Some interesting comment on twitter that the R falls as immune Numbers rise

The R0 will definitely fall as numbers rise. The fact that nowhere that I’m aware of was rising at a non-exponential rate when social distancing and lockdown measures were put in place is a good inductor that nowhere is close to herd immunity yet, which is a real shame.

It's not an irrational fear. It's not crazy to want to avoid a novel highly contagious disease which has caused people permanent damage and hurt people. If you are dead then there is no economy to worry about.

I understand people’s reluctance and mistrust of the government (I did not vote for them and I hate Boris Johnson).

That said the end of lockdown IS coming. It will happen whether we like it or not. Matt Hancock said yesterday that they will expect children to attend school in the usual way once they are open, they are not planning on allowing people to opt to keep their children at home. I don’t think it will be possible for the majority to opt out of involvement in society long term.

If you haven’t watch Chris Whitty’s lecture then I would really recommend it. He’s an excellent speaker and confirms that at an individual level the risks are low. They are higher in higher risk groups (obviously) but the vast majority of those in high risk groups will also recover from COVID. It is not a guaranteed death sentence even if you are higher risk.

Living is more than just not being dead in my view. Some form of functional society will need to return in the medium term COVID or no COVID.

I have to admit as a heavily pregnant, as in due any second, 31 year old who is about to go into hospital, i am terrified.
However i would recommend watching chris whittys lecture on youtube.
These are the fatality rates he provides (yes i know its china but he said in video these are replicated across world).
Does anyone know if these are the case fatality rates though, as in based on confirmed cases... Or infection fatality rates, based on estimated cases?

Sorry didnt attach

Derby i wonder about london- havent examined the figures closely but C positive hospital admissions started falling there first i think, suggesting that rate of growth of infections may have started to slow before the formal lockdown was introduced ( though having said that lots of people were doing diy lockdown before that). That might also suggest higher infected rates by the time of the lockdown (though not 60%) than elsewhere which could have meant a lower R - however i doubt that its possible to disentagle the effects of the various variables.

@Greysparkles

Yes, I think you're right.

I mentioned on a thread a while ago that people shouldn't be made to feel that they can't call for an ambulance for anything other than suspected Covid, and the likelihood of people dying from treatable cancers because their treatment had been stopped and everything was being dominated by the pandemic - this was before it was talked about in the news - but apparently for a lot of people these things aren't important any more, it's all about fighting Covid19.

Please don’t be terrified @Jrobhatch29

They are now testing everyone who goes into hospital on arrival which will help manage the risk.

The chances are overwhelmingly that you will be absolutely fine. Best of luck with it all and enjoy your baby.

Yes i know someone who is in the hospital i am going to having her baby now and she was swabbed on arrival. Its reassuring x

*Obviously it had been mentioned in the news that's people weren't calling ambulances or going to A&E, I mean't before it was mentioned on the news by the powers that be.

I walked past a mum with a small child yesterday. The mum was trying to take the small child for a walk. The small child was having a monster tantrum. She kept screaming over and over again: "People are dying, we have to stay at home".

It was awful in so many ways. Yes, people need to get a collective grip.

Sunshinegirl82

On an individual level, risk of dying from Covid might well be fairly low, especially during a lockdown. What do the figures look like during an exponential growth period where the NHS is overwhelmed though? If the NHS is overwhelmed the risk of dying, particularly amongst younger people, doesn't just come from COVID19 but from not getting treatment for heart attacks, car accidents etc. Then your individual risk of dying might look quite different.

I'm concerned about how government will manage this anyway. Until now we've had them telling us to stay at home, the NHS won't cope, lives are at risk. They then hope to tell us to.get back out there, back to school, back to work your individual risk is very small? Then comes the second wave - will they be telling us to stay home again then because the NHS is overwhelmed again?

I'd like to see how they plan on making parents send their children to school as well. If enough say no what can the government really do? Worst case the parents opt to home school. Nothing the government can do about that so Hancock can pontificate as much as he likes, they can't compel parents to do anything if enough of them refuse.

I really object to the term "hysteria". It's a horrible, belittling word, designed to make little of any genuine concern.

If there was a sniper going around your town randomly shooting people would you think anyone not wanting to go for a random wander around the shops was "hysterical"?

270000 people are dead, and yet it's "hysterical" to think that's worrying? 5000 people died at 9/11 and the world was shocked and stunned. No one said "oh well, people die every day, what's all the fuss? " When someone dies of cancer, no one says "oh well, she was over 50, what did she expect?" This new flippancy about loss of lives on a huge scale is frankly shocking . d

I get that people want to get back to normal. But we just can't always get what we want by stamping out feet and demanding it. As for mental health, there will be many people whose mental health might be better- kids no longer being bullied at school, or stressing about exams. People released from the stresses of work. I get that for some people it will be the opposite, but it's not black and white.

I'm actually quite sad and disappointed that for once we have been asked to do a simple thing to help society as a whole, and people are whinging about not being able to go for a coffee or wander around the shops. Who actually needs to get that grip?

Well the individual risk of dying from COVID would remain fairly low even during an exponential growth period. The risk of the health service being overwhelmed would obviously increase that risk however.

COVID kills approximately 1% of those infected with it (provided those who require hospital treatment can access it). That doesn’t change, what changes the risk is being able to access appropriate medical care.

I don’t think the plan is to lift the lockdown and return to exponential growth however. The plan is (or at least appears to be) to exit the lockdown slowly with a track and trace programme in place to keep the R as low as possible.

My point about schools is that the government won’t support people to opt out because they would prefer to. Children will be expected back at school, people will be expected back at work. It will be open to them to leave their jobs and/or home school but a lot of people just won’t be able to do that on a practical level. Once the lockdown ends the vast majority will have to start to re-engage with society whether they want to or not. I think that is the reality.

Honest question, based on the situation as it actually exists (and not in what you would like it to be ie that we magically get ourselves a different/better government) what do you think should happen?

I'm really worried that irrational fears

Oh the irony

@TheCanterburyWhales those "facts" that hearhooves gave out mean absolutely nothing in that context. The 33% that died could have all been in the elderly vulnerable group for all we know.

''ThePlatypusAlwaysTriumphs If there was a sniper going around your town randomly shooting people would you think anyone not wanting to go for a random wander around the shops was "hysterical"''

No. But that analogy doesn't work and the mindset behind it is dangerously misleading. The corona sniper isn't randomly shooting around the town. He's firing deadly shots mainly at the over 80s and those with specific vulnerabilities. The vast majority are only grazed by his shots and further more he's even in the 'street'!

Add to this - this sniper isn't going to be gone when we start to emerge from lockdown. This isnt the point of lockdown - some hide and seek game hoping he'll get bored and sod off. BUT although he'll still be around when we come out he still isn't going to be shooting randomly 'in the street', with us having no control.

‘Honest question, based on the situation as it actually exists (and not in what you would like it to be ie that we magically get ourselves a different/better government) what do you think should happen?’

I would like the government to fund research and implement policies that will reduce deaths from pandemics in the future. Because in terms of how bad a pandemic could be, this one is a low key dress rehearsal.

So start looking at why some institutions are so large, why there is so much face to face contact in service provision, why stores are so large, public transport so crowded, housing over occupied, hospitals under resourced.

And start implementing better public health campaigns, so that people stop spreading diseases due to poor hygiene and presenteeism.

what do you think should happen?

Now? I think we are screwed I matter what. The opportunity to prevent major loss of life and the economy has long gone. From where we are now I think the government should hold their nerve, keep us in lockdown until the beginning of June and then let schools re open - that gives six weeks or so until the summer holidays to watch and see what happens with infection rates.

As for businesses, I think it's very difficult. I can't see how large department stores or shopping centres can open and still maintain social distancing, don't see how restaurants, ants, pubs, clubs, theatres, hotels can open for the same reason. Maybe small businesses where social distancing can be maintained and adhered to could open but ten you would have to consider the effects of the infrastructure needed to support those businesses.

Public transport, particularly in London, will be impossible to keep safe.

Then you will have effectively a two tier system so people able to get back to work but vast swathes not able to go back, which will in turn affect income available to spend in open businesses.

I honestly cannot see any way out of lockdown before they have, as a minimum, reliable testing, tracking and tracing in place. The tracking will have to be mandatory too because you will have to ensure that everyone is using it or the tracing just falls at the first hurdle. Will the population accept these restrictions on their freedom?

@Jrobhatch29 they are based I think on the confirmed cases of China - but dont include the asymptomatic cases that the Chinese didnt pick up so in effect it would be better.

They are replicated though if you look at the stats so they are fairly stable

@ThePlatypusAlwaysTriumphs this - lockdown cannot be normal for too long either. We wont have anything of a normal to return to. But neither can we jump straight back in. We need to figure out a new normal for the short term but that will mean I think at each stage we will have to come to terms with the risk that involves in restarting our lives

Everything with this is magnified

But I think people do need to be more understanding of the negative effects this illness is having on those of us with anxiety, especially health anxiety
And frankly, I don't believe Mumsnet is an understanding or supportive environment for people like myself. They clearly don't understand how it feels for your whole chest to feel like it's caving in with worry over the health and wellbeing of a child. Feeling like you cannot wash your hands enough until they're cracked and bleeding. To not sleep and when you finally do through sheer exhaustion, the nightmares are vile and terrifying

Yes to some people do silly things or are hysterical. To people like me it's exercising caution.

What happened to be kind?

platypus hysterical is a valid description of some of the reactions to this pandemic. There isn't a uniform understanding of the science behind this virus and there isn't a uniform response. Some people are reckless, some are diligent and some are hysterical (and countless variable descriptions between those 3)!

Definitely there have been some hysterical reactions. I agree. People having tantrums because they've spent one short month living the life of the many permanently housebound.

Well I suspect that’s fairly close to what will happen to be honest. I am certainly not expecting any significant changes this month. We can’t turn back time so we are going to have to move forward as best we can.

I’m keeping everything crossed that Oxford pull it out of the bag on the vaccine. It’s looking reasonably promising.

I also read that Oxford University are putting a plan in place to set up a pandemic preparation centre in partnership with a pharma company. Hopefully they will get some decent government funding. I’ll see if I can find the link.