Debates about the effectiveness of masks often assume that the purpose of the mask is to protect the wearer, since this is what all doctors learn about in medical school. Cloth masks are relatively poor (though not entirely ineffective) at this. For 100% protection, the wearer needs a properly fitted medical respirator (such as an N95). But cloth masks, worn by an infected person are highly effective at protecting the people around them. This is known as “source control”. And it is source control that matters in the debate about whether the public should wear masks.
If you have COVID-19 and cough on someone from 8 inches away, wearing a cotton mask will reduce the amount of virus you transmit to that person by 36 times, and is even more effective than a surgical mask. Oddly, the researchers who discovered this fact considered a 36-fold reduction to be “ineffective”. We disagree. It means you’ll transmit only 1/36th the amount of virus you would otherwise have done, decreasing the viral load, which is likely to lead to a lower probability of infection, and fewer symptoms if infected.
The mathematics of transmission
Mathematical modeling by our team, supported by other research (Yan et al. 2019), suggests that if most people wear a mask in public, the transmission rate (“effective R”) can go beneath 1.0, entirely stopping the spread of the disease. The mask doesn’t have to block every single viral particle, but the more particles it blocks, the lower the effective R.
Modelled impact of mask use on reproduction rate
Modelled impact of mask use on reproduction rate
Just how effective mask-wearing is depends on three things illustrated in the diagram: how well the mask blocks the virus (‘efficacy’: horizontal axis), what proportion of the public wear masks (‘adherence’: vertical axis), and the transmission rate of the disease (R0: the black lines on the graph). The blue area of the graph indicates an R0 below 1.0, which is what we need to achieve to wipe out the disease. If the mask blocks 100% of particles (the far right of the graph), even low adherence rates will lead to containment of the disease. Even if masks block a much lower proportion of viral particles, the disease could still be contained – but only if most or all people wear masks.
www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary