Please stop giving us bogus figures

[Sparklfairy]

I'm sorry if this annoys or upsets anyone but I'm getting thoroughly pissed off with the messing about with death statistics.

Sky news have just said:

"The number of coronavirus deaths in the UK has risen sharply to 26,097 as those in care homes and the community were included in the government's figures for the first time.

The total is up from 21,678 coronavirus deaths in UK hospitals announced on Tuesday."

Sorry, but between 21st March and 17th April, there have been around 27,000 more deaths than the five year average.

Five year average was 41,452 - this year was 68,395.*

Every year, and even this year until the pandemic, we have been roughly in line with the five year average (within a few hundred).

12 days later and they're still only saying 26,000.

They're dicking about with stats from different places, some UK, some England and Wales, some just England, it's impossible to get a clear picture.

And really, I don't care what anyone says, even if some of those 'extra deaths' are people not seeking help for a heart attack/stroke etc, domestic violence incidents, suicides etc, every one of those deaths is caused directly or indirectly by this bastard virus.

For anyone that says this is ghoulish, some people cope with stress by getting a handle on the facts, and feeling like facts are being played around with is adding to stress levels.

*Data taken from Office of National Statistics.

Possibly @ thelast so i am at a loss as to why the government constantly did this up to very recently. Now they have started to say exactly that we cant compare bla bla

The daily graphs are about COVID though. They are variable enough as it is without adding another layer of variables to them.

For example, look at the deaths per million population and see what you get.

Look at population density, see how that affects your interpretation.

Put the two together...

There are all sorts of confounding factors, no one graph can unravel them all!

The ons line was just covid deaths all settings not complicated all.

There is no consistency in the way these stats are being recorded, so they are not accurate. But the general drift is bad.

i am at a loss as to why the government constantly did this up to very recently. pressure from us, via the newspapers.

Now they have started to say exactly that we cant compare bla bla They have said that from the start.

The ons line was just covid deaths all settings not complicated all. That is now... only recently been available/collated. And still does not necessarily show the same data set as that of other countries.

The government chose a measure, one consistent easure they could use to track changes in infections - not to be accurate, but to track changes. It wasn't the only measure they used but it did then and does now show fairly accurately the currently known infection and death trends.

As with other countries that measure has changed over time, as more accurate/up to date recording has become possible. It still isn't real time, there is still a lag in reporting/recording.

No country in the world will be able to give anything like accurate stats until this is over and all deaths can be analysed. We have the ONS, a great resource fo rall sorts of stats that most of the population had never heard of before! Nothing will be hidden... we just have to wait.

Which is part of the problem, in this age of instant communication!

I beg to differ curious they compared directly with another country at least twice. No reference was made that figures are not comparable.

www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/government-has-misled-public-over-uk-deaths-being-lower-than-france/7027404.article

I dont want the ons to compare with other countries, i actually wish the government had not been doing this. I want it for transparency.

Counting deaths in care homes only for those who are tested certainly appears to be hiding no.s

I don't for one moment expect that mistakes in that narrative were not made. Measures changed over time and it is almost inevitable that errors were made. But I am not sure I would say they were deliberate, maybe I prefer to be more positive. The strongest mesage has been that they are not directly comparable

But some measure had to be used. Had they not shown us any data, any comparison there would have been allegations of all sorts of other things being hidden.

There just wasn't a single thing that could be done that wouldn't come with its own nest of issues.

Counting deaths in care homes only for those who are tested certainly appears to be hiding no.s Again, that is the data set they chose to follw the trends. The full data is on the ONS and will continue to be collected, collated and analysed... but that analysis won't be finished any time soon. By its nature it can't be!

I suppose it just comes down to your perspective. I have used the ONS for a couple of decades, for all sorts of data, neighbourhood analysis, funding bids etc. I have a rough working knowledge of it and epidemiology in general. I do tend to trust its data sets and understand their limitations.

i can understand mistakes but it seemed more that that. I understand the need for the government ( and possibly humans ) to compare themselves favourably with other countries - i just wish they did not do it ( mistake or not - they did it twice with france ).it made me suspicious of what i was being told since it was not the truth.

I accept that going forward care home deaths are hopefully going to be fairly accurate and i have to content myself with that. But i lost quite a lot of confidence in the government over this and believe me i did not want to.

i can understand mistakes but it seemed more that that. That's where we differ mostly, I think. Nothing worng in that!

But i lost quite a lot of confidence in the government over this and believe me i did not want to. But that does seem to be something that affects you, your general mood, perhaps. I will put my hands up, I choose not to see the worst in anyone, it makes me more miserable. Some people call me naive, others call me deluded, but I am happy in my delusion and pragmatic in my choices. It keeps my mental health on a pretty even keel!

I can see how bad this is. I can see where a simply huge amount of money has gone. I know the impact it has on small businesses, mine diappeared overnight. I can see larger bsuinesses diappearing too.

I am not unaware. I read around the data sets daily. I just don't want to live in the worst of it, to wallow in that feeling. I want to see the hope, the end game. I will wait... and keep my fingers crossed.

Yes of course we must just differ on the mistakes issue and the seeing worse in people. I dont generally see the worse in people but on this i am. So be it.

I don't want to sound patronising or twee but best if luck with it. Don't let it overwhelm you. It's shit enough as it is

( Feel free to shout fuck off, loudly, if that doesn't read well )

I wont shout fuck off at all curious. I wont let it overwhelm me and yes it is shit.

Sorry did not mean to sound curt, was doing something else. Thank you for the flowers.

@Thelastsoda "
Different countries have very different reporting standards and processes and the UK's was one of the best of the world."

I watched him too and my recollection was he said different countries has different reporting methods and shouldn't be compared. I don't think he said the UKs was one of the best in the world.

I don't know how helpful it is to compare countries. As PPs said everyone records their deaths differently, and that's without the huge variable in demographics, population density, culture affecting the spread.

In any case, the new ONS stats for up to 24th April come out tomorrow. Officially there were 5913 Covid deaths, so you would expect around 16,500 total for the week.

Just released:

"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 24 April 2020 (Week 17) was 21,997"

11,539 more than the five year average, and still 4,545 excess deaths on the 5yr av with no mention of Covid on the death certificate

I would be very wary of comparing the number of excess deaths by country at this stage. Not coronavirus, but influenza:

"30 Sept 2019 Report on the Epidemiology of Influenza in Germany 2018/2019"

"For the 2018/19 season, no estimate of excess-mortality could be made, as the necessary data of the Federal Statistical Office are published with a time delay. However, the estimate for the 2017/18 season (still lacking in the last annual report) has been supplemented: approximately 25,000 influenza-related deaths exemplify–together with other parameters–the extraordinary severity of the flu epidemic 2017/18."

www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/inf_dis_Germany/influenza/summary_2018-19.html

@Clavinova Sorry if I'm being dim, but I'm not sure what you mean.

Our excess deaths have already way surpassed our 'official' deaths, despite being two weeks behind, and factors in delays. The discrepancy is so, so huge, especially as we were broadly in line with the 5yr average for the first 2+ months of the year.

The fact of the matter is, twice as many people are now dying every week than the 5yr average. The only difference is Covid-19. Whether these deaths are a direct result of catching the virus, or one of the many knock on wider effects of lockdown, it doesn't really matter. Without the virus, they wouldn't have happened, and not enough people/media seem to be talking about the ripple effect and wider impact.

That is covered in quite a few of the daily press meetings. All of the medical speakers have refered to it and said that it is being monitored and a complete analysis will take a while (maybe years) across the world to fully understand. Van Tam was roundly slammed for his rather blunt mention of it, iirr.

We are only part way through this, so any attempt at explanation would be premature and meaningless. The numbers could change at any moment, the underlying issues too.

Without the virus, they wouldn't have happened, and not enough people/media seem to be talking about the ripple effect and wider impact. Sorry, I meant to address that directly.

We don't know that yet. There was a high flu report over Christmas, many suggest it was Corona. That will have had some effect, no matter what kind of flu it was.

The media are asking and are being answered with the unsatisfactory but true "we don't know yet".

The ONS have said (just now n radio 2) over 30,000 covid deaths, but hospital admissions and even care home deaths are reducing.

Overall deaths increase year is just over 30,000 above previous rates, suggesting that most additional deaths have been related to corona - I think. I need to have a read of the new data as I may have completely misheard that!

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24april2020#main-points

@CuriousaboutSamphire but if you look at the ONS stats for Winter 2019 (or all of 2019 actually), the weekly deaths are still roughly in line with the five year average every single week. Sometimes 3/400 higher, sometimes 3/400 lower, but broadly in line. So whilst you say there was a high flu report over Christmas, it didn't actually affect the 5 year average.

Now it's double. This week (24th April) 10,000 higher, last week 12,000 higher. We're not talking small numbers here that can be explained away.

@Sparklfairy

Agreed... the figures dwarf any earlier variation, and its timing scotches any idea that Covid was somehow widespread much earlier as some people seem determined to advocate.

I miss stated that. I meant that media, MNers etc are reporting an unusual flu.. but the data hasn't agreed, as you said!

Sorry. Wrangling puppy and trying to plant up tomatoes... Not succeeding well with any one thing at the moment

Sparklfairy
Sorry if I'm being dim, but I'm not sure what you mean.

The report from Germany seems to indicate that their excess death statistics are reported long after the event - they didn't have the figures for the winter of 2018/2019 in Sept 2019 - difficult to compare excess deaths in Germany with the UK. Other European countries may have similar delays.

@Clavinova I don't see the point in comparing countries too closely really. There's too many variables. I didn't know Germany had such huge delays on their stats though!

@CuriousaboutSamphire a puppy in lockdown I don't envy you! I haven't had a puppy in about 14 years and the stories I could tell you