Please stop giving us bogus figures

[Sparklfairy]

I'm sorry if this annoys or upsets anyone but I'm getting thoroughly pissed off with the messing about with death statistics.

Sky news have just said:

"The number of coronavirus deaths in the UK has risen sharply to 26,097 as those in care homes and the community were included in the government's figures for the first time.

The total is up from 21,678 coronavirus deaths in UK hospitals announced on Tuesday."

Sorry, but between 21st March and 17th April, there have been around 27,000 more deaths than the five year average.

Five year average was 41,452 - this year was 68,395.*

Every year, and even this year until the pandemic, we have been roughly in line with the five year average (within a few hundred).

12 days later and they're still only saying 26,000.

They're dicking about with stats from different places, some UK, some England and Wales, some just England, it's impossible to get a clear picture.

And really, I don't care what anyone says, even if some of those 'extra deaths' are people not seeking help for a heart attack/stroke etc, domestic violence incidents, suicides etc, every one of those deaths is caused directly or indirectly by this bastard virus.

For anyone that says this is ghoulish, some people cope with stress by getting a handle on the facts, and feeling like facts are being played around with is adding to stress levels.

*Data taken from Office of National Statistics.

They weren't from coronavirus - alas people die, of all kinds of things, we've lost 3 congregation in that period, none from covid 19

Wrt Italy, so many have died in carehomes that a criminal investigation has already started. Estimates are that up to 40% of deaths will have been in carehomes.

@okiedokieme I'm sorry but the ONS stats are released weekly, and every single week, we match the 5 year average for the same week within a few hundred. We expect around 10,500-11,000 deaths roughly a week at this time of year.

The last three weeks of stats released (so up to 17th April) have been 16,387, 18,516, and 22,351.

These far outstrip the expected figure based on the five year average, and worryingly, far outstrip the number the government tell us have died of CV, even with the care home figures now included.

As I said, a % of these 'excess deaths' that are currently unaccounted for may be an indirect consequence of lockdown. i.e. higher rates of suicide, domestic violence, people leaving seeking treatment for other health emergencies too late etc. But even if that was 10-15%, there is still a gap.

Whichever way you cut it, all of those 'excess' 27,000 deaths up to 17th April from the ONS are a direct or indirect consequence of this virus and subsequent lockdown.

I’ve stopped listening to reported figures as I think they’re garbage.

Sparkl- believe it or not only yesterday on here a certain poster with an agenda was posting figures she gets from some weird blog showing those ONS figures are all invented. And that fewer people have died this year than usual.
Guess you can't cure stupid.

Oh i agree with so much that has been said on this thread! The government deciding to only count those in care homes who had been tested is a scandal! We know that there was little testing in care homes. There will be many more especially earlier when there were many deaths.
The most of Europe is reporting 40 percent of the death rate in care homes, is the uk going to be vastly different?
The scientists have said a few times it is about 10percent. They now admit to nearer 20 Percent.
I believe that France and Belguim include deaths in care homes where there is a suspicion of covid
I hate that the uk keeps trying to say it is doing than other countries! Dont say it and dont say it unless it is going to be true.

I really do think it needs to be a case of subtracting the ONS figures from the five year average to get a true picture. I've seen numerous accusations that the government/coroners are actively trying to inflate the figures by recording deaths as CV when they weren't, which is frustrating. At the end of the day you can't argue with the total death rate vs the five year average.
But you can argue with the interpretation that you are putting on them, because it is wrong. If you actually read the ONS report, it very clearly stated that Covid-19 was responsible for one third of that increase, and that two thirds of the increase were due to deaths from other causes. It also stated that further research is required to identify the reason for the spike in deaths from other causes. It may be that people have not sought medical help for other conditions because of the virus outbreak, it might be an anomoly that nobody can explain - but right now nobody knows.

You are scaremongering. I am far from being a supporter of the Government. There are certainly many aspects of their handling of health and care services in the past, and this virus outbreak now, but if you are going to do so, please ensure that your "facts" are even remotely accurate. Feeding the fear is not helping anyone.

But equally you can’t report extra deaths a CV deaths without proof. Maybe when things become clearer they’ll be able to go back over the records and produce good estimates but you can’t just report deaths of CV without proof.

It was my understanding that 2 thirds of the ONS extra deaths were due to Covid and 1 third not. Maybe I am wrong - will check and come back to the thread.

Proof for me would be covid on the death certificate - though other countries it appears count those with just a suspicion of coronavirus. I know that there is a lag for this information from the ons but i would prefer a lag and that the information is as accurate as possible.

@Moondust001 asking questions, as is my right, is not scaremongering. I am not responsible for, nor to I have to keep quiet for, other people's health anxiety.

If you, and the ONS, are stating that 8two thirds of these excess 27,000 deaths are down to 'other causes' then of course research needs to be done. The increase is just too huge though for it to be anything other than (as I've already mentioned) a direct or indirect* consequence of CV.

However, 18,000 people dying of something other than CV, in excess of the five year average, seems far too high to me. 10-15% is a more realistic figure as a consequence of lockdown (causes mentioned above, increased suicide etc).

Our testing strategy is woefully inadequate, as is our reporting strategy clearly.

You are absolutely not scaremongering.
Its like fucking 1984 listening to the propaganda. They are trying to interplay the numbers for political reasons. They don't want to look bad because our figures are worse than Italy: A country who had less time to prepare than the UK and despite the same population, has more elderly so really should have a higher death rate. The media are doing everything to prop up the government and people are buying it. This is the result of the herd immunity they did a U-turn on. Unfortunately too late for many people.

I also dont think you can just ignore all those who did not get tested, especially when the government admits these were not done. There must be hundreds if not thousands missing.

@TheCanterburyWhales shit really (to both your posts)? A criminal investigation

Yeah I've seen lots of opinion that the figures are artificially inflated in order to keep us under government control in lockdown Yes, because a Tory government out of everyone loves to see the economy tank

I was furious yesterday too and agree with pretty much the vast majority in this thread have said.

There's a poster on the thread who I'm convinced is paid by the Govt to defend their nonsense.

Yesterday's died from CV 'tested' number us hiding so many deaths where 'testing' was not done

The lying is disgraceful.

Sparklfairy has it about right.

It has been a disaster at every stage and the incessant manipulation of the figures shows how little respect the government have for us all and how much time they are spending trying to evade their collective/individual culpability rather than taking action.

It is always reaction not action... and always, always in their own interest.

There’s no way daily figures could be 100% accurate if those figures were to include care homes, people dying at home etc as the actual figures are not available daily. It takes time for these deaths to be reported and then these figures collated into the number of deaths in the hospital. It’s not hard to understand that.

So mad at all the lies that i have applied to put this as a question at the daily update! Chances nil of getting to ask it but was so angry!

The ons is collated up to the 17th i believe. No reason why they could not be added on up to this date and then weekly. Using testing as a critieria will be missing so many and is a a disgrace. I am no expert on how this could be done accurately even with a lag but i am sure it should be possible. If it isnt the government needs to be clear that there are many more that have not been included.

The numbers Sparkl and others have posted are those released by the authorities. Presumably no govt would want inflated numbers releasing, so where is the scaremongering exactly? I think everyone knows (and it's the same in all countries) that true numbers are likely to be higher than those released but we'll never know the true scale.
Moondust- it's the opposite.

@AdoreTheBeach no one is asking for 100% accuracy. I am concerned when the figure is 14,576 vs 27,000!

It is very difficult to get accurate figures. The original figures come from hospital, where presumably those who died were tested for the virus. Even then some have had underlying causes, so some are those that died with CV as well as those that died OF CV.
Deaths outside of hospital were not given direct to the Gov, as it depends on when the death was registered, and how quickly those figures were collated by the ONS.
Frankly, as I know of 2 cases in my own family where the cause of death was incorrect (years ago, and did not matter), I am a bit suspicious anyway.
The only way to really know is to take the whole number of deaths over the whole period and compare to the average. This would include those who have died indirectly from untreated heart problems, etc

@milveycrohn Exactly.

I think the press should cover this; 'the true cost of life from CV'. Including all indirect causes of lockdown. They'll quite happily do a piece soon enough on the 'true cost of the economy from CV', directly or indirectly.

There's a poster on the thread who I'm convinced is paid by the Govt to defend their nonsense. I think there are a few on the Coronavirus threads doing that. As if saying something is red when it is actually green is going to make people believe it is red. But I think that in the (rubbish) press it is sadly a tactic that actually works.

(And on social media.)