Please stop giving us bogus figures

[Sparklfairy]

I'm sorry if this annoys or upsets anyone but I'm getting thoroughly pissed off with the messing about with death statistics.

Sky news have just said:

"The number of coronavirus deaths in the UK has risen sharply to 26,097 as those in care homes and the community were included in the government's figures for the first time.

The total is up from 21,678 coronavirus deaths in UK hospitals announced on Tuesday."

Sorry, but between 21st March and 17th April, there have been around 27,000 more deaths than the five year average.

Five year average was 41,452 - this year was 68,395.*

Every year, and even this year until the pandemic, we have been roughly in line with the five year average (within a few hundred).

12 days later and they're still only saying 26,000.

They're dicking about with stats from different places, some UK, some England and Wales, some just England, it's impossible to get a clear picture.

And really, I don't care what anyone says, even if some of those 'extra deaths' are people not seeking help for a heart attack/stroke etc, domestic violence incidents, suicides etc, every one of those deaths is caused directly or indirectly by this bastard virus.

For anyone that says this is ghoulish, some people cope with stress by getting a handle on the facts, and feeling like facts are being played around with is adding to stress levels.

*Data taken from Office of National Statistics.

I don't care what anyone says

Then why post.

Look I agree, the stats are all over the place, constant changing of how to report, lags in the numbers etc, makes it all very opaque. The overall trends are clear though. You need to take rolling averages, nearly every single press conference they say that.

Then why post

Rolling average from what stats though? That's the point. There is a 'true cost of life' here that's being ignored, even if that's because someone died of a heart attack because they didn't seek help in time because they were scared to go to hospital/didn't want to overwhelm the NHS. At the end of the day it's all down to this pandemic.

Looking at the above as a full picture of what's happening will give us a better idea of when to relax lockdown, as it's both keeping us safe but causing unnecessary (indirect) deaths too.

Remember last week when Matt Hancock looked absolutely ill at the daily update and made a total arse of it? I'm betting that's when the true extent of the death toll here became clear. They've spent the last week massaging the figures.

It's the same with tests. Previously it was number of tests undertaken and now the phrase has changed to "testing capacity". They should be slapped every time they say they're being transparent.

I had to turn off the news this morning as the BBC newsreader was talking about the “new figure” of 26,000. I guess that’s how it works, whoever shouts loudest gets their “facts” in the press. There are dissenting (realistic) voices but they don’t have the platform the government propaganda machine does.

i am hoping the journalists will pick up on this soon. Lets hope. Such a lack of information is incredible.

You want a scale of the deaths - do a straw poll of funeral directors or priests and see how overwhelmed they are by the number of deaths they’re dealing with. We’re a clergy household, onto our 10th funeral in 3 weeks. This is so far outside normal levels I can’t see how anyone could believe there aren’t excess deaths happening

I hope so too @Humphriescushion

@BilboBercow agreed. Some tough questions to put Matt Hancock et al on the spot and hold them to account are in order not that they ever answer the difficult questions anyway

If Coronavirus is not stated on Death Certifcates as the cause of death or contributing factor then they wont be recorded in the figures. It is down to whoever certifies a death to accurately reflect the cause. Surely that is the problem?

If the government refuse to test people then those who die with suspected Covid should have Covid put on their death certificates. They can't say it's not the virus just by refusing to test, when all symptoms said otherwise. It's scandalous!

They are getting away with it by just not testing people. It's actually shocking and something us and future generations will talk about for years to come.

It is down to whoever certifies a death to accurately reflect the cause. Surely that is the problem?

In the compilation is their latest “figures” they are ignoring the death certificate even if it says Covid. They are only counting tested people who have died.

@SimpleKindofLife
That's not what's happening. If a GP thinks that Covid was the direct or underlying cause of death they are to record that on the death certification even if a test hasn't been done. The BMA guidance to GPs is at www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/covid-19/practical-guidance/covid-19-death-certification-and-cremation

I cant seem to paste the actual chart, but this is the gov. Chart from the two days ago. It appears that there were more than three thousand deaths outside hospitals fom covid in just one week! Am happy to be told i am wrong and sure there some other deaths included but it makes a mockery of the figure the government gives. It is page 7 i think - i know this is death certificates.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/881811/2020-04-28_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__6___1___1_.pdf

Strangely this chart was not shown yesterday.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/881811/2020-04-28_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__6___1___1_.pdf

This chart shows we've had the worst outbreak in Europe and we are still at the peak.

Yes all the numbers are wrong. If the UK are not counting all the deaths in the care homes then they are HUGELY wrong.

Although, all the numbers are actually wrong for everything right now.
88% get a fever.
20% get no symptoms at all.

So is that 88% of the symptomatic 80 % that get a fever?

And also, that asymptomatic 20% is also wrong because we have no test to say who has had it.

All the fucking numbers are wrong

Just try not to catch it, that's all we can do for now.

From your links @Humphriescushion

1. is fine. because they don't bother even admitting most cases
2. is impossible as the figures have proved to be unreliable
3. testing is erratic and inconsistent
4. don't even get me started
5. have the government been 'confident' about anything since the start of all this?

Yep. We're fucked

As tests are pretty inaccurate and many are not tested I think the excess deaths whether covid 19 caused or lack of NHS services caused are what will really help us eg we could contrast March and April normal deaths with this year etc.

@LucyLocketsPocket
Lucy - how do z scores relate to how bad an outbreak is? Genuine question.

Currently, there is no cure and no vaccine. Therefore, if transpires that most people will eventually get it. If not now, then when lockdown is lifted. Unless you want to stay in lockdown forever.
So, ultimately, it is not how many people die now (March April, etc). We will probably have to look over the entire year, compared to previous years.
I am not sure whether we should be comparing our country to others. If other countries locked down sooner, they will eventually have a bigger second spike.
I suspect the difference will be in counting, though. For example, if getting the virus is delayed to the autumn, will it be registered as CV or seasonal flu (many of the symptoms in the early stages are similar).
I personally think some of the lockdown restrictions should be lifted, because the purpose of the lockdown (not to overwhelm the NHS) has been so successful, that people with other conditions are dying (delayed cancer treatment, heart attacks, etc).

Re testing inaccuracies, I have read that swabbing techniques have been inconsistent and not necessarily performed correctly by staff. Not sure how true but someone reported that it was being carried out by serco , some people were even being given a swab and expected to do it themselves sat in the car.

the purpose of the lockdown (not to overwhelm the NHS) has been so successful, that people with other conditions are dying (delayed cancer treatment, heart attacks, etc).

This and also many people of covid at home - who could not get to a hospital due to being told to manage their (awful) symptoms at home.

I disagree that there necessarily has to be a second wave - with good testing / contact tracing and local quarantining why does there have to be one?

I also disagree that all countries will eventually have the same number of deaths. Some, through early, concerted and intelligent action have done extremely well in limiting the number of fatalities.

The Downing Street conferences are now just spin. Today is going to be even worse as Johnson is chairing it.

The drs and nurses that are close to me are saying that the deaths from sars cov 2 are at least double than are actually being reported to the public, possibly more...... One goes as far as saying triple

And many people are now not adhering to lockdown social distancing rules

This is a huge cluster fuck that didnt need to happen.

And people are still wanting schools to open.......

Totally agree @Sosadandempty

There have been a number of threads on here recently trying to influence opinion and normalise the belief that lockdown needs to be relaxed soon. All cropped up end of last week.

@Plbrookes

Regarding z score, I've interpreted this as being the percentage of deaths a country is above the average.

So, if the UK for example, usually has a thousand deaths in a particular week but this year has had 1,400 deaths for the same week, then the z score would be 40?

Happy to be corrected if I've got this wrong.

I think this chart is showing though that the UK has experienced the biggest percentage rise in excess deaths of any other European country?