Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

That can't be true about Conservative members being offered tests . In dd's hospital they are still only testing ICU staff or those with symptoms severe enough to be off work.

Surely if they are short of people to test they could start with front line staff and residents and staff of care homes.

Wonderstuff true. We really don’t know much about children and how it spreads.

Wish they had stuck to reporting a hospital only figure and maybe added a total deaths figure to the table. Having a day to day comparison was useful

You and me both
I realise all deaths have to be included at some point but it's hard to avoid thinking that, as soon as numbers start to drop, a way's found to inflate them again (presumably to resist calls for lockdown being relaxed)
I'd like to believe the politicians in charge of decisions understand the stats much better than I do, but frankly I'm not even confident of that

I realise all deaths have to be included at some point but it's hard to avoid thinking that, as soon as numbers start to drop, a way's found to inflate them again (presumably to resist calls for lockdown being relaxed)

I feel the exact same way. They’ll do whatever it takes to keep scaring people. I wish they’d just kept the numbers separate. As I thought we were finally seeing progress

I understand it when people worry when governments down play numbers but I don’t get the opposite. What’s in it for them?

U.K. government has said we’re doing well, lower numbers fit with that better.

Worldometers U.K. death toll at 4,419 for today’s deaths??

Is this accurate?

Larry Schooling can't be exactly "normal", anymore than the economy can be
Both students and workers will have to adapt, because staying at home for 2 years is not an option for most of either

In German schools, it is accepted now that not everything can still be taught
Anything that requires close contact, e.g. team sports, would be dropped

Derby That Swiss study is being treated with caution in Germany
Verdict is that we need more data and studies

The government should give both sets of figures; no reason not to do so, when they have them
e.g. France does

@BigChocFrenzy

Of course, caution is needed... I’m not arguing that we should simply accept it at face value.

Yes agree BigChoc

I understand it when people worry when governments down play numbers but I don’t get the opposite. What’s in it for them?

The opportunity to spin things out a bit longer while they wonder what the hell to do?

I'm not sure why pp think that a Tory govt wants to keep scaring people with higher numbers to stay in lockdown..

So they can continue to spaff billions on paying people not to work,
while thousands of businesses go bust, the economy goes down the toilet
and taxes will have to be raised later on anyone still working, to cover it all ?

All anathema to any Tory
and only done when they have no alternative

I get that pp want to end lockdown, but don't go down the conspiracy rathole

I don’t get those theories. Probably why I love this thread. It doesn’t give air time to speculation.

Who knows? We will only be able to presume and what’s the point in that.

Are they saying that fewer than 3,000 deaths have occurred outside hospital between 2nd March and 28th April? Surely that's a massive underestimate.

And what BigChoc said

Sorry, fewer than 4,000 - (4419 less 765).

UK numbers are still too high, in whatever form they are stated,
and do not satisfy the WHO or ECDC guidelines - or indeed those of any responsible epidemiologist - for ending lockdown

However, the govt must use these final 3 weeks to organise mass testing, contact tracing ..... and PPE

In the meantime, they should be studying what happens to countries that have started relaxing lockdown,
look at what works, what doesn't, what else could be tried e.g the Israeli "rolling timeshift" lockdown

Worldometers U.K. death toll at 4,419 for today’s deaths??

Is this accurate?

Yes. It’s added the care home deaths in (of those that tested positive with Covid)

Yes, it’s saying there were 3,654 care home or outside hospital deaths before today. That’ll be ones reported with Covid-19 as a cause of death. So there will be a backlog and it won’t include excess deaths that didn’t have Covid-19 on the death certificate.

twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1255497006300237826

Chris Giles from FT estimates >47k Is likely to be the true current figure.

I think what worries me is that our excess deaths curve hasn’t peaked yet. Hoping that that is just because of the backlog of reports.

Larry I asked that re schools when I was in today. I work special. Currently we have small numbers and use just 1 classroom and eat in that class etc. But we have students who are 1:1 and must have an adult by their side at all times. We also have some children in current,y with frontline parents. So currently I feel like although we can't social distance we are in control. I asked what happens when there is more mixing etc.

Did they say in the gov update that the care home figures were for those who tested positive? I thought they did. The numbers dont seem to add up with what the ONS have already stated from death certificates. I dont believe many would have been tested earlier on.

www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/NeuartigesCoronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-04-29-de.pdf?

Germany's estimated R0 is down to 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.64- 0.87)
(RKI report 29/04/2020, 12:00 am)

After being at 1.0 for the previous couple of days, with no dramatic changes in either new cases or deaths,
I have to wonder how meaningful these theoretical calculations are 🤔