Here's the death date to 24 April. Ignore reports by week of registration as it's the wrong way to do this. Note that the data are lagged.
Note also that week 15 deaths are now 11.5% higher at home than reported +8 days after w15 end, but hospital deaths only 1.5% higher.
Also care home deaths up 6.4% since w15 end.
The week 15 data and week 16 & 17 data are not directly comparable in that a number of 'other communal establishment' deaths were re-coded as hospitals, etc.
Hence it may be more illuminating to note:
Week 16 +8 -> Week 16 + 15
Home +10%
Care homes +4.6%
Hospital +3.2%
Thus deaths at home in fact fell by only 55 (1.5%) vs last week, and are still around 50% above normal.
Care home deaths fell by 500 looking at data in both cases +8 days, which is quite good although we should consider that this may not be a fall as a % of the surviving population.
I.e. we have around 16,000 excess care home deaths in 5 weeks, out of a population of around 300,000, plus the 12,000 'background' deaths, so it follows firstly that covid-19 has killed well over 5% of the population of care homes, and probably will kill somewhere around 7.5% of the total population of care homes. AND we should consider that families if they have any choice are probably NOT sending granny off to be possibly killed by covid-19 in a care home, so hence the population of are homes is likely to be down by almost 10% by now due to natural death and fewer new patients, as well as covid-19 killing off much of the population.
So e.g., if there were 290k residents pre-week 16, and 7500 died, that leaves 282,500 residents in week 17 then that's 2.59% and if 7000 died in week 16, that's 2.41%
So there is a good chance that care homes will develop a measure of herd immunity, in that if we started with 300k and with 260k or whatever post covid-19, then those survivors will not catch covid-19. The problem is of course is that when the new residents start arriving then they won't have immunity and by January, we can expect 80,000 to have died of natural causes, perhaps 90,000 new residents arriving post covid-19 (entry to care homes delayed by covid-19), and half the immune herd will be dead anyway.
As regards total death toll, we can see we have
14,400 hospital deaths (but here we can just look at NHS data)
Around 7,200 home deaths
Around 18,000 care home deaths (but more not yet counted, more dead since 24 April)
Thus there were certainly 40,000 extra dead to 24 April.
TOTAL excess dead was 10,000+ in week 15, 9000 in week 16, and 6500 currently for week 17, but the latter figure is missing maybe 1,000 not registered yet, and previous weeks smaller numbers.
If we look at NHS stats, we had around 3250 deaths of week 17 to a few days later and now that's down to 2400ish. So it looks like we will have a LONG period of excess deaths, i.e. there is no possible way whatsoever that there will be fewer than 50,000 excess deaths in England & Wales.