Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

@newaccountforcorona thanks that’s the first comprehensive plan I’ve seen. It seems sensible and safe, plenty of time to track effects.

Humphries sorry what do you mean with your question re hospital no’s and deaths?

A game-changer if it pans out

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/us-germ-warfare-lab-creates-test-for-pre-infectious-covid-19-carriers

Scientists working for the US military have designed a new Covid-19 test that could potentially identify carriers before they become infectious and spread the disease,
the Guardian has learned.

In what could be a significant breakthrough, project coordinators hope the blood-based test will be able to detect the virus’s presence as early as 24 hours after infection
– before people show symptoms and several days before a carrier is considered capable of spreading it to other people.

@NewAccountForCorona thank you that's a fascinating (skim) read.

Do we think what Boris unveils next week will be similar??

Have I missed the volcano posts in the last couple of days?

I haven’t seen any for a few days, neither Barracker’s nor Shoots. With the addition of the care home data, they might be a bit tricky to do?

This page looks like the same data for England but presented differently.

www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-1st-may/

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT)

Fri 1 May update to our excess mortality tracker,
adding new countries and updating all locations

• 153k more deaths than usual across the 21 countries we‘re tracking
• 58k above reported Covid deaths at the time (+60%)

Lots of our new additions have few or zero excess deaths.

• Germany only showing a very slight excess, though its data lags by almost a month❗️

• Israel, Norway, South Africa and Iceland all show no excess
• Meanwhile US excess rises 📈

More detail on South Africa:
Earlier this week @davidpilling & I looked at how its deaths are down on usual levels

https://www.ft.com/content/e9cf5ed0-a590-4bd6-8c00-b41d0c4ae6e0

It’s a case of the upside of lockdown:
• Deaths from natural causes unchanged
• But deaths from homicides & road accidents down sharply

New deaths also filtering through for our US data.
These deaths took place in the weeks we were already showing, but hadn’t yet been processed.

The result is US excess mort is up from +12% to +15%, and will rise as data keeps coming through.

Do hope both @Barracker and @ShootsFruitAndLeaves are alright! Maybe beavering away finding clear ways to present the new data!

Really interesting that SA has reduced average deaths, interesting news report yesterday (possibly the day before I've a sketchy handle on time these days) saying they were on track to have the same infection rate as the UK but they've done brilliantly at contact tracing, largely due to their experience with HIV they've a good number of skilled health workers who are able to identify cases and contacts.

@sleepwhenidie thanks for the reply. I think i am asking if i understand correctly when I see that there are around 2000 less people in hosptial in a week and in that week around the same number of people died. Cant really explain except that my conclusion from this is that yes addmissions went down but that they all died.
No figure for new admissions ,obviously some people must have been discharged but on the face it, it seems that the fall in people in hosptial is purely deaths. This is starterling and something must be wrong. I am happy to be told i am a complete idiot.

Humphries lots of people are still being admitted with COVID-19 and being discharged. More are now being discharged than admitted.
People are dying, but the numbers of in hospital deaths is steadily falling. So having fewer numbers in hospital is not just because patients are dying.

Ok i see, however since i have no idea about new admissions and no,s discharged i am hence very confused. They really should be telling us this. I appreciate you trying to explain it to me though and i understand i cant draw this conclusion.

I keep a close eye on the numbers in the USA, as their response has repercussions for everyone.
They seem to be coming out of lockdown even before they have stabilized. New York and New Jersey seem to be under control, but this is masking a problem in the other states.
I'm guessing they are going to have serious problems in a fortnight, and that is going to affect the stock markets again as they form a second wave and second lockdown.
I'm not a statistical person. Is there anyone else who can see this forming?

I'm intrigued by America as well, their line looks like it is on a slightly downward trend so maybe have peaked/plateaued but it seems very early to start lifting restrictions.

I was chatting to someone who lives in Texas, one state rep there said grandparents should be happy to potentially sacrifice themselves for their grandchildren 😱 it really does feel like they want to keep the economy going at any cost. What i don't understand though is surely there will be a negative impact on the economy if loads of people die? But is the effect of lockdown worse?

Does anyone know how America's death rate either normalised by population or per million compare to other countries? Obviously on the graphs for actual deaths the line is way above most other countries but it's so vast it's hard to see if it is actually as bad as it looks IFSWIM

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

America is an odd one and very hard to compare to other countries. State governors are taking decisions about individual lockdowns so it isn’t a uniform picture. I think it really needs to be looked at as each state being a different country, because they are so different, eg NY state vs some mid West areas where population is low and geographically v spread out so for many families, normal life (possible exception of school) is virtually lockdown anyway! But lots of places with high levels of poverty and comorbidities, plus medical facilities likely to be insufficient.....it does feel a bit like watching a car crash but I don’t know if that is the reality.

I also think the economic effect of lockdown in the US is extremely tough, many people living hand to mouth, poor welfare state - I’d guess that the knock on effect of lockdown in terms of deprivation leading to more death is likely worse there than in much of Europe? I don’t know details of that but it’s my impression.

I think the US should almost be seen as a series of localised outbreaks each with its own pattern and response. An outbreak in NY is potentially very different from an outbreak in Oklahoma.

In other word I agree with sleep

Yep, I've posted before that imo we can regard the USA in this epidemic much like Europe:

a set of states, with different characteristics, geography, population density etc and governments - and hence different policies wrt this crisis

Then of course there is the Nutcase-In-Chief throwing out bleachballs at anyone whenever his minders can't stop him in time

we fortunately don't have a NiC, although there is Putin sending in sneaky bleachballs

JamesClaytonn@JamesClayton5*

Newsnight now believes that 32 Filipino healthcare workers have died of Coronavirus in the U.K. 32.

That’s around one in five healthcare worker deaths

Our Newsnight report into why this is happening

"Why are so many Filipino health workers dying? - BBC Newsnight"

"At least 25 Filipino health care workers have now died with Covid-19,
despite making up less than 2% of the NHS workforce."

Nutcase-In-Chief throwing out bleachballs at anyone whenever his minders can't stop him in time

Brilliant!

Has anyone else noted that less healthcare workers have died, as a percentage of that workforce, than the population at large, despite lack of PPE and additional viral load. Should we therefore be seeing this as a positive, rather than a negative for the NHS workforce, and on the other hand accept you are actually more likely to catch, and die of the virus in the community?