How can businesses slowly re-open if schools don't go back?

[trumpisaflump]

I've been thinking about this all day. A few of my friends are taking great delight I think in forecasting that schools won't go back until August (Scotland). And even at that it will be part time classes to allow social distancing. So an I wrong in thinking if this is correct them business will not be able to return as families/parents will have children at home?
It's been going through my mind all day and I don't know how we can have one without the other. Any ideas?

I'm lucky in the fact I will be wfh for the foreseeable even after restrictions lifted however I feel that I'm failing terribly in both parenting and working at the same time. It just isn't as easy as it's made out especially with younger children who need supervising/help to do school work. A lot of screen babysitting going on at the moment when I'm working but it's the best I can do

@SophieB100 31 August.

Thanks Strawberry, wow, they have a long holiday!

If schools don’t reopen, or reopen with social distancing in place (15 per class means each child could only be in 50% of the time in most schools) it will impact 8 million households and therefore the ability of around 8 million workers to actually go to work. The uk workforce is around 30 million - so we’re talking about 1 in 4 people not going back to work. Of course that will have an impact on businesses, the economy and household income.

My personal prediction - furlough will continue for businesses forcibly closed (eg hospitality) but not others. Those workers unable to return to work due to lack of childcare will (imo) be left to the welfare system to sort out. It will absolutely screw them over, but I don’t really see an alternative. We can’t open schools unsafely and the government can’t pay people’s wages indefinitely.

@LaurieMarlow , yep. Usually rely on grandparents. Will look into other options but childcare is pretty limited and with more and more people needing it could be a big problem. Plus weighing up cost and pay makes it difficult too. Tough choices to make but know we are far from the only ones making them.

Public servants just as reliant on schools-as-childcare. Not sure why they are in a better position if schools remain closed .

Sorry mine was meant for @MarginalGain

I would open the schools in June but not make attendance compulsory. Families that need to shield could continue to do so. Families particularly worried and have a sahm parent etc. could stay off till September. I would open the economy in june but provide financial support for employees who have been told to shield. We will have massive mental health and financial problems if we keep everything locked down until the autumn.

My personal prediction - furlough will continue for businesses forcibly closed (eg hospitality) but not others. Those workers unable to return to work due to lack of childcare will (imo) be left to the welfare system to sort out.

Yep, that's how I see it too. No way can the govt continue funding furlough and business support grants for everyone. It will get restricted to only the businesses that can't practice social distancing or those that are prohibited from opening. Businesses that can open will either have to open (even if loss making due to fewer customers) or make staff redundant. It'll be time to piss or get off the pot.

Families that need to shield could continue to do so. Families particularly worried and have a sahm parent etc. could stay off till September.

Where teachers need to continue to shield, or are carers for those who need to shield, will they be allowed to, in your model?

In which case, how will you staff the schools?

Also, I presume that you are comfortable with all school-provided home schooling stopping as soon as the schools re-open? Teachers genuinely can't do 2 jobs at once.

@anntsekf & hubs date both key workers I don't think they will be able to open as normal straight away as there will be both staff & children classed as vulnerable who will be unable to return to school so that will mean a phased return for all children I imagine

Both me & oh are classed as key workers
I'm currently on furlough two weeks in but who knows what will happen
I was using the key worker hub for my children but not sure if / when return

I've been asked to use paid holiday after two weeks too I've asked not to but been told I got to to help with holiday intake later in year but with what I've taken & what I've got booked I think I only have 3 days remaining for rest of year 🤷‍♀️

My personal prediction - furlough will continue for businesses forcibly closed (eg hospitality) but not others. Those workers unable to return to work due to lack of childcare will (imo) be left to the welfare system to sort out

I also agree with this, I think it’s the only option they will have.

Those workers unable to return to work due to lack of childcare will (imo) be left to the welfare system to sort out

So basically single parents with no family to help are left on the scrap heap then?

Maybe they could use the child benefits system to work this out. Make it £200 a week per child and then parents stuck at home get the money they need without the loafers getting it

Families that need to shield could continue to do so. Families particularly worried and have a sahm parent etc. could stay off till September

There is a very big difference between these two. The million odd people who are chronically ill and need to shield are very different group to those who are just worried.. The latter can stay off for as long as they wish, home schooling is a thing.

For the million odd in the shielded group then I assume it will be benefits.

Can'tkeep
Yes - with fewer children in school you can get by with fewer teachers so the ones that need to shield can stay home. Agency teachers can cover the gaps.
Education packs can be provided to shielding students. Local schools could collaborate to provide materials and feedback.
Not a perfect system but better than letting the economy melt down and children and young people suffer more.
If the government made such an announcement and gave a date there would be time to organise this.

Also why is September the magic month???
The virus will not be gone by then. There will be no vaccine by then. It’ll be approaching flu season.
I don’t understand why people are saying they’re not happy to have their children go back to school NOW but are fine about them returning in Sept??? Genuinely don’t understand the reasoning?

Bluntness. Agree but I wouldn't want the 'worried well' to lose school places if they adopted a 'wait and see' for a couple of weeks.

Because September gives more time. More time for trials into drugs that work. More time for the number of new infections to drop. More time to plan for social distancing. More time for research into stopping the spread.

I don’t understand why people are saying they’re not happy to have their children go back to school NOW but are fine about them returning in Sept??? Genuinely don’t understand the reasoning?

I think its hope that the contact testing and tracing and the rate if infection will be lower by July.

Like looking at Merkels response. If our R value is 0.7 there isn't much wiggle room as it stands now . There maybe by July. There maybe by June. Nobody knows! No one at all.

At the moment, new infections are running in the thousands - detected - so the many thousands overall.

Therefore, if schools re-open and social distancing therefore be almost entirely abolished, the chances of someone catching it are still very high. We don't have the testing capability to adequately test e.g. every teacher with symptoms and return them rapidly to the workplace. So even if schools re-open, it is likely to be only for a very short time as lack of teachers and necessary quarantine for pupils and staff will close them again.

Whereas if we wait more months, the number of residual infections will be much smaller. the likelihood of anyone in a school community coming across a case and bringing it into the school environment is smaller. Testing and tracking is likely to be much more effective, with demand being much better aligned with supply. Education is much more likely to be able to proceed continuously.

And that's just thinking about schools, not the NHS.

'September' (rather than e.g. the beginning of August, or October) crops up because it's a key date in the school calendar, and a logical next 'date to plan for'.

Like the start of June would be 'after half term' for many, so that would mark what would in normal times be the start of a 5-6 week cycle of plans and lessons.

People don't say 'Oh yes, they should go back in mid-July', because in England, that would only meabn a week of term left.

its not that September is 'magical'. it's just that if schools don't open in June because it's not safe, and there isn;ty a decision to deliberately create a summer peak by sending children back into school at the start of July, September is the next 'key point' in the school year.

@Bluntness100 I don't think the government will be happy with a massive unemployment number it's a terrible look for them politically. I think the furlough scheme will be standardised to match universal credit

bubblybarbara
Make it £200 a week per child and then parents stuck at home get the money they need without the loafers getting it
you are kidding that is more than a single pensioner (who has to cover all the bills) who forced to stay in gets per week
and who exactly are these 'loafers' - you mean child-free people, the over 50s?
So a family with 3 children get £600 per week for doing b* all while non-families get UC or JSA - talk about a sense of entitlement.

Not everyone would get benefits either would they. Not if their partner earned too much to claim it but not enough to pay rent and Bill.

Theres also a cap on how much you get towards housing so it will not he enough to prevent rent areas.... for many people.

It's a terrible idea to leave it to welfare system