How are people still getting infected

[Jenasaurus]

when we have been in lockdown for 4.5 weeks, is the incubation period longer than 2 weeks?

It’s actually a good question. Unless the rate of infection is dropping dramatically then could you argue lockdown isn’t working unless it’s a China style lockdown?

Should we just follow Sweden? We missed the boat on the quarantine, testing, contact tracing etc.

Are we just currently in the worst of both worlds?

The aim of the lockdown was to flatten the curve so that people who would recover with appropriate treatment could all get that treatment. I'm not sure that has necessarily happened (partly because of admitting people with 'silent hypoxia' to hospital too late) but sure as heck if the rate of infection had continued to grow exponentially many more would have died untreated.

They caught it several weeks ago

We can't do a China style lockdown or we would all starve! They were able to do it because they shut down a province of a much larger country so could bring in food and supplies from elsewhere.

My partner suspects he caught it from the super market on Saturday as he said There were 3 people in Aldi coughing, so we all have it now and apart from the shops we haven't been anywhere or been in contact with anyone xx

How can we realistically track and trace when so few people are tested?

No one goes out, food is delivered etc etc. Not for me! Delivery people and people in the food industry sill have to go out! Complete lockdown is not achievable even in China.

My fiancée is a physiotherapist and had a patient cough all over her a few weeks ago, she was wearing PPE and she still caught Covid, we can’t be 100% sure it was from that patient, but a lot of the face masks we’re being given provide insufficient protection (don’t fit properly, leaving large gaps around the edges) so I wouldn’t be surprised.

Complete lockdown is not achievable even in China.

But they could presumably do a better job locking down Wuhan than the U.K. could hope to achieve because it was one area with the rest of China able to supply it, not to mention having the Chinese army.

Complete lockdown isn’t realistic, nor, I would strongly argue, is it desirable!

We were never going to stop covid-19 in its tracks, nor was that the intention.

Many more people will die. That is a fact of life, as, in fact, is death. It’s horrible, and not a happy thought, but we cannot prevent all deaths.

a lot of the face masks we’re being given provide insufficient protection (don’t fit properly, leaving large gaps around the edges)

A lot of PPE is designed for male sized people.

I took my ds out of school almost a week before others in my area. Out of all of our friends, we're probably seen as the overly cautious ones. Quiet walks, always crossing to avoid orders in plenty of time. Weekly shop, discenfecting or leaving out of house for days. No luxuries ordered or workers or deliveries & minimal contact. I've had a continuous dry cough for three days. I think I've probably got it. The thing is, I can be as careful as possible but it didn't stop the joggers and cyclists aiming for me or the (majority) shoppers in my local supermarket walking around like it's 2018.

sarahc333

Hope you all feel better.

Some people don't give a toss; such selfishness.
I was in my local supermarket and two people were really really coughing. They were together.

I was wearing a mask which my understanding is that is protects others more than it does me, but I kept well away and thankfully was okay.

Well now the government are starting to test more people (and not just those needing hospital treatment) infection rates will rocket.

Unless they say 'hey everyone, stay inside for 1 month. No work, no exercise, nothing. Just stay in - or we will shoot you' then there's no way this is ending. Obviously they wont do that. But actually, I kinda wish they would. Give everyone a few weeks to get our food stocks up and do whatever needs done and then shut us in.

Why did you even need to ask ffs?

If absolutely everybody on the planet stayed at home for a month simultaneously then the virus would die out. But That would mean leaving people to die. From starvation and other health problems and domestic violence too. It would mean no police or military to reinforce it. It would mean an absolute stop to the economy. No emergency repairs. No fire service. If your house caught on fire you would have to burn down with it. Obviously that is completely unfeasible. It would only take a handful of people to break the absolute quarantine to break if for everybody, and without anybody enforcing or this would of course happen. So we can not entirely eradicate it.

Oh, and no prisons or prisons locked down and prisoners left to it

Incubation period can be well over two weeks. Has been over 25 days in some cases. Also younger people can take longer to get seriously unwell and to need hospitalisation. So someone dying today could have been infected seven weeks ago, or even longer.
That plus transmission will still be happening, just not at such a swift pace. My neighbours have had visitors, not everyone is being extremely careful.

It’s my understanding that ‘they’ want most of us to catch it. The idea of herd immunity has never gone away and that’s why we have a lighter lockdown than the vast majority of other countries. That those who die will be (largely) older is still seen as a necessary evil. A ‘needs must’ attitude from the government.

@SinglePringle

Absolutely, our lockdown isn't really worthy of the name, so about 3.5 furloughed, 2m laid off, 28m working!!! give or take the self employed, who if Cornwall is anything to go by, are still working!

On my bicycle ride today, the roads are busy, as are the supermarkets, hardware stores - B&Q just re-opened.

Herd immunity hasn't gone away, its alive and kicking! Remember Johnson said he would get Adult Social Care done!!!

Work is a huge factor. Hospitals, supermarkets, banks...I work in a call centre for a bank ..not many staff in building but still it's impossible to social distance at all times. We're definitely needed to help millions in need of financial assistance and not all of us are able to work from home

We don't know how many people are currently getting infected it because we aren't doing any testing. The death rates are falling. However the people dying today caught the virus at least 2 or 3 weeks ago. We don't know how many new infections there are.

Anyone who caught the virus pre lockdown may have passed it to their immediate family, and some of these people will be sadly reflected in the current deaths. Other people will have caught it because they are key workers. The children of key workers may have passed it to other key worker children at school. Who then pass it to their parents. Who pass it onto their work contacts. And so on.

My guess is that it is quite rare to catch the virus at a socially distanced supermarket or from passing someone in the street.

People are still having to work, shop and a few using public transport. In top of that you've got some that don't think the restrictions apply to them. If someone gets it a household then it can be 14days before they get symptoms.

But the point of lockdown has never been to stop most people eventually catching it. It is about flattening the curve, spreading out the infections so they are at a level the NHS can cope with.

There is unlikely to be a vaccine until the end of the year if ever (bear in mind there still isn't one for HIV, Ebola or the common cold). We either need to learn to live along side this virus or live in lockdown permanently. And to live in lockdown permanently a percentage of the workforce would still need to be caring for the sick and elderly, farming the fields, delivering food etc etc.

Every single interaction is a small risk of transmission. the more interactions the more risk. Even the strictest lockdown will still have interactions happening.