I'm asking what is the danger I am facing simply in leaving my home?
You don't know that?
If you leave your home, you increase the risk of catching it.
How much that risk increases, can not be worked out. Because of thousands of variables. The increase could be minute or huge.
Depending on the thousand of variables. No one can give you figures.
Your risk of needing hospital care, is higher than people not on the shielding list. But again, lots of variables means no one can tell you what that risk is increased by.
You need to look at whatever you plan to do and assess the risk. Is it an acceptable risk, does the risk outweigh the benefits.
Like pps friend with CF. My cousin also has it and, again has decided the the risk of exercising early morning or late evening, when they won't see anyone is far less than what happens if she doesn't continue exercising.
My cousin has looked at herself, looked at the information and advice given and made a decision for herself.
Thats what you need to do.
Its odd that you can't get your head round the fact, that you need to do this for yourself.
Its just a diversion tactic, so you can make out you are being forced to stay in.