The way you do a risk assessment is to first identify the risk. How can you do that when no one will tell you what the risk is? What is the risk in just going outside? They aren't telling us to stay away from people even. They are saying don't go outside. Why? What is the risk? You can't do your own risk assessment when you don't know what the risk is.
No one else knows the exact risk either. When you do a risk assessment, some of it is based on judgement. Because either has to, there's no data so start with.
If alot of people in the shielded group get covid all to together, the NHS is fucked. Because shielded are more likely to need hospital. Not definitely, more likely.
If 10,000 on the shield list get it, far more NHS resources are needed, than if 10,000 not on the shielded list get it.
Thats what its about.
No one can calculate individual risk.
Because the variables are extensible.
How far can you walk, do you need someone with you. Are you likely to collapse. Where are you planning on going, what time of day, what's the population level like, how busy is that place likely to be etc
The risk is different for everyone. At the end of the day, a shielded person could get and its only mild and they re fine. No one knows, how it will pan out in individual circumstances.
You need to calculate your own risk, based on your own circumstances.
The risk for someone living in Central London doing one activity, isn't the same for someone who lives on a farm doing it.
So no one will calculate it for you