2nd Wave

[millerjane]

Is a 2nd wave inevitable?

Will numbers surpass our current peak?

How can it be avoided?

Desperately seeking info from informed posters - only have an A in bio @ A - level

1. No
2. No reason they should - it will depend on whether lock down measures are re-applied
3. Continue lockdown/re-instate lockdown after a break/keep some measures in place and readjust according to figures at the time/development of a vaccine

I doubt if most posters are any better informed than you are quite honestly.

What’s prompted this question?

What’s prompted this question? Diagnosed anxiety

I'm sure during one of the press briefings Dominic Raab said that we needed to avoid a second peak/wave/lockdown.

So I presume they don't think it's inevitable.

Lol "I've only got an A in biology A level."

Tbh i think inevitable
because only 2.5% of populations have had it.
And china are trying so hard to keep it out with quarantining people returning and tracing
Because they dont think everyone is making antibodies
Uk have so many cases it would take a very long time to go right down
It only took 4w from the italy returners to school closure.
So what 1k in the country maybe. But we have 5k cases a day still who are still infecting the hospitals and staff and their families

I guess though by second wave most hcp and key workers may have had it. And most care homes would already have been exposed or hopefully some better procedures.

Don’t see how it can be avoided unless we stay in lockdown until everyone is vaccinated. I think we will be locked down, released, lockdown released etc

It's all about timing. Without a vaccine, most people will get it. We want them too while there are lots of ICU beds. That means timing it so more people are sick in the summer than 'respiratory disease season'. And instituting selected groups to have riskier behaviour over time.

Some countries are run by grown ups so it's worth listening to their leaders.

Yes I think there will be a second peak after kick down lifts. But no idea if it will be worse than this one. Its impossible to say as we avent tested enough people from the start.

Without proof of immunity it's all just a guess..

My Biology degree was Environmental Biology so more about ecosystems and lifeforms. I only studied epidemiology in that sense so what do I know? I think we are just guessing at the best.

But I think we have missed the boat on modeling without testing. The best research wont be based on UK data and we have skewed it towards tho

There will probably be 2nd, 3rd and 4th waves. The point of lockdown is to try to control the number of people who have it at any time to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed, not to eradicate the virus.

Towards the most severe cases

It feels like the mood has changed from managing the influx into ICU while allowing people to catch the virus, to wanting to avoid a second peak altogether, or am I misunderstanding and they simply want to mitigate the time and extent of second peak?

I can't see how the virus can be contained without much more sophisticated testing and contact tracing (but this sounds like by far the best strategy) so I'm not sure anymore what plan we are going with - maybe it's just too soon for anyone to know

The economy can't stand an extended lockdown but I did read earlier warnings that a massive second peak and additional lockdowns would be more damaging to businesses than an initial longer lockdown (although that's at odds with the waves of social distancing initially discussed - or is it?)

I wish we could stop talking about ICU beds/ventilators and start discussing the need to give people oxygen at an early stage of breathing difficulties.

(As I’m sure they did for Boris Johnson)

Good point Ly

It’s not inevitable because if it was all global advisors, governments etc wouldn’t be talking about avoiding it. Clearly. They’d be talking about managing it. You don’t talk about avoiding something inevitable.

Be careful on here though op, there are many people struggling with anxiety and always think of worst case, so they will feed yours and make it worse.

Lycidas yy if they did, surely the numbers of deaths wouldn’t be so high, possibly if the public saw pictures/reports of hospitals overrun as in Italy the panic & fear would be more widespread, so many many people are left at home until it to late, I believe in Germany they have prioritised early intervention at home with lots of support from health professionals, maybe one of the reasons they have managed this much better than us🤷‍♀️