Government reportedly considering schools going back in 3 weeks

[FiveFootTwoEyesOfBlue]

On BBC News 24 now, article in tomorrow's Sunday Times says that ministers are considering schools going back in three weeks time. Plus allowing some shops and social gatherings, but not pubs and clubs.

JassyRadlett

Yes there are encouraging signs, but there also a lot of ifs, buts, and hypothesis.

So shouldn't we wait for decent sample sizes so that the results can be conclusive?

Yes there are encouraging signs, but there also a lot of ifs, buts, and hypothesis.

So shouldn't we wait for decent sample sizes so that the results can be conclusive?

Agree so many variables and some of the Wuhan research was based on Mers and SARS which have a R0 value of three times less.

I’m trying to find it; I can find comments from the German researchers as I mentioned up thread but still looking for primary source (whether interview or published study - as with so much it may be the former atm...) I am hampered by poor German.

Has anyone shared anything on the children as significant vectors that I’ve missed?

Yes there are encouraging signs, but there also a lot of ifs, buts, and hypothesis.

I have said that repeatedly on this thread. I do not disagree.

I simply take issue with people making statements about ‘zero evidence’ when it is untrue; such statements are misleading.

They seem often to be accompanied by statements of fact that have less evidence to support them.

I can’t find it either, Jessy and given that it is being so widely quoted, it should be fairly prominent?

JassyRadlett

As far as I know, most of the reports stating that children are super spreaders, do not state that the are super spreaders for this, but that they have been for other viruses.

But then this is the information that is being used to form the response at the moment.

I would also like to know if these findings are taking in to account just covid-19, all of the strains, or some of the strains.

If the lockdown is lifted and the government is telling businesses to get up and running but teachers' unions do not budge and refuse to open schools, will privately-run holiday childcare clubs start offering budget childcare-and-education-supervision options during term time, I wonder? (Send your child to us with a laptop and their pile of school work, books etc., and we will stick them and a whole bunch of other kids at individual desks in a room and have a holiday club staff member circulate around the room helping them here and there).

teachers' unions do not budge and refuse to open schools

Where on earth do people get the idea that teachers unions have any power over anything? Check out our lack of a pay rise for the last decade...

I am talking about situations where schools were not opened for a long time---like, into 2021. Have seen people on Twitter calling for them to be closed until autumn 2021....!

user1477391263

I suspect that if lockdown was lifted, teacher unions that have little real power, could do almost nothing as everyone would be going back to work.

Also, unless the teacher was in a shielded group, the schools could just start the legal proceedings for firing them.

As far as I know, most of the reports stating that children are super spreaders, do not state that the are super spreaders for this, but that they have been for other viruses.

I think this is my issue with this being trotted out as a fact in relation to this virus - because one of the things we do know is that this virus behaves incredibly differently in children than the respiratory viruses on which those studies are based.

I can certainly understand it being used for modelling and planning assumptions with caveats. But it is not fact and people repeating it as such are either misled or misleading.

user1477391263

You would have to be absolutely bonkers to think that schools could close for over 12 months.

My personal feeling is that we will be going back for a couple of weeks before the summer holidays.

How that will happen is more of a concern than when.

This appears to be the way forward l think.
Denmark are back 10 to a class including the teacher. Some ‘classes’ of ten have a teacher, some have a TA. They have stringent testing and hygiene procedures.

We can do that. It would mean children were in approx 3 days every fortnight.

What if i decide i don't want my children to attend, will i be fined?

I can’t find it either, Jessy and given that it is being so widely quoted, it should be fairly prominent?

No idea. Things move quickly, something may be in interviews that have not yet made it to studies - much of what Neil Ferguson says falls into that category for example.

Your German may be better than mine and I have limited time today, so good hunting.

There’s no research concluding children are super spreaders of this particular virus. They are proven to be super spreaders of flu which is why assumptions were initially made that they would be of this virus too.

More and more research is being done to support the fact that this may not be the case. Not big enough sample sizes etc etc and not conclusive yet but it’s being done and hopefully more research will come out soon.

I do keep stating a definite fact, though, which is that the Iceland research was conducted when schools were closed so has severe limitations.

But surely they couldn't replace 1000s of teachers! There is a recruitment crisis already. I can't see schools going back unless teachers and unions feel reasonably happy about it. If that is not for quite a long time, parents will need to think seriously about making some other arrangements while they work, until the pandemic is more under control. Holiday clubs are pretty much the only thing that is coming to mind right now....

This thread is fascinating.

On the one hand, so many people want their children locked into a school with thousands of other children from hundreds of other families. (Certainly in high schools).

But the suggestion of being on a plane in the summer with hundreds of people, from tens of families is a big no. Some people actually believe we won’t be going abroad until 2022!

So I’m allowed to go mix with thousands of people...but not a few hundred on a plane.

The airports? Well they could have cleaners all day long disinfecting handles and barriers etc. You could also do something to practice social distancing there. You cross paths with more people I guess, but hey-ho, I’m mixing with thousands in school anyway, so why not?

Holidays are important for my wellbeing and we can’t just stop life after all (according to some Mumsnet users).

So hopefully schools can get back on May 11 and holidays can go ahead from perhaps the beginning of July?

JassyRadlett

But it is not fact and people repeating it as such are either misled or misleading.

When talking to teachers about this type of thing, you are pretty much preaching to the choir.

wanna no I think that would be understandable. Schools might not be allowed to authorise it but they couldn’t put in place any kind of fine. It’s a judgement.

Re teaching unions having any power whatsoever - hahahahaha yes agree with noble. They are fully spineless, useless.

Also can someone explain, I thought ‘super spreader’ wasn’t some special invisible power that children maybe have or don’t have...I thought it was because they do things like:
Share and chew the same pens
Share food and drinks
Snog at the back of the playground (secondary)
Don’t wash their hands
Sit very close
Hug on greeting
Don’t cover their mouths when coughing/ sneezing
Tend to not be quite as poorly with some illnesses as adults, so will go out and about with the illness rather than staying in
Etc

You know, all the things that cross contamination a virus from one place to another.

When talking to teachers about this type of thing, you are pretty much preaching to the choir.

That is not my experience on this thread or others, to be honest. I can understand that teachers are worried about risk - I would be too in their situation - but a number are stating that they are more at risk because children are significant spreaders of this particular virus. That is not a fact.

I am not taking away from their very real worries based on the very flimsy evidence base and the many uncertainties around the strategy in this country (and others). But am uncomfortable when that very real concern leads people to be misleading, whether intentionally or not.

If social distancing needs to stay in place for some time then I don’t know how the schools opening will be able to implement that.