Government reportedly considering schools going back in 3 weeks

[FiveFootTwoEyesOfBlue]

On BBC News 24 now, article in tomorrow's Sunday Times says that ministers are considering schools going back in three weeks time. Plus allowing some shops and social gatherings, but not pubs and clubs.

I have not read the research to check it

And this is key. BBC news is not a scientific source. People put their own spin on the research and use ambiguous language.
The main point of this research is that relying on herd immunity at this stage is dangerous. Not that there is no immunity for those infected.
You’re right, we don’t know enough about the virus to draw any clear conclusions. But to state that ‘we’re just finding out that there is no immunity’ is incorrect.

It is some initial research on a small sample size.

I don’t frequent that thread - but from what you say it’s very early to make pronouncements on this. If there is so little immune response then reliance on a vaccine as an ultimate exit strategy may well be a pipe dream.

What institution did the work?

Bert typo on my part - should have been I do .

I agree with you.

I know not all schools are doing online lessons but ours is. If I’m honest, I think for secondary schools getting online teaching up and running (doesn’t have to be video conferencing) should be the government’s priority. Ask any year 10 student about how much learning happens in cover lessons and it will become clear very quickly that going back to school without decent staffing levels in place would be less effective than online teaching.
Online lessons do not adequately replace a normal, face-to-face lesson with a specialist teacher. They are definitely better than a timetable with large numbers of cover lessons with classes divided into small groups and spread out around the building with teachers that may not know the kids or the topic. Especially when you consider that doing that for year 10 would mean teachers were no longer available to teach other year groups online.

@Quartz2208 As I said I have not read the research. So yes it may be that what has been reported is not accurate. I will try and find the research and read it myself later to see how evidence based headlines are.
I do still think though that too little is known about this virus.

@Bluntness100 People lose their jobs all the time. I did two years ago when the company I worked for collapsed. My kids survived it. These are difficult things, but they are normal life stresses. Kids losing a parent is the worst thing that will happen to them. Do you think that baby left when her mum who was a nurse died would rather have had an unemployed mum or a dead mum?
There is a lot of catastrophising on MN at the moment about difficult and stressful but normal life events. Yes life is difficult and is going to carry on being difficult for many people. But any parent in the vulnerable group knows that being alive for their child is the most important thing.

Germany and France also. Germany is planning on:

While schools will reopen from May 4, it will initially be only for a minority of pupils — those in the highest class of primary and secondary school who have exams this summer.

Boris is out of favour, so it’s lies, misdirection and spin to turn everyone against him.

What from the Mail and Times? The two most right wing papers that are usually a Tory Mouthpiece? Maybe, just maybe, Boris has fucked up so much this time that they really can’t skirt around it. The guy didn’t attend a cobra meeting on corona until the 2nd March, by which time the writing was on the wall re. Infection rates/lack of PPE and hospital capacity/woefully inadequate pandemic planning in the U.K. He was too busy having long weekends away in the country and sorting out his divorce so he could marry his pregnant girlfriend.

The Times has an article very much slating Boris about that, to be fair. on the front page

This was one of them on the thread

mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1251151111655813128/photo/1

Everything I read indicates that after this wave the number of people who currently have antibodies is around 2-4% (of the population not of those infected) which isnt enough to be anywhere close to herd immunity

We dont know how long immunity last (well of course we dont because that needs time to check) or how effective it is because that needs time

@SabineSchmetterling Yes my kids are teenagers and I totally agree. The worst of all worlds is all kids going back, teachers phoning in sick to protect themselves, so kids getting cover and little learning happening.
And teachers will vote with their feet. No one who is seriously worried this is going to kill the will go into work if they are entitled to proper sick pay like teachers. They will get signed off with stress. Since most of us are stressed at the moment not hard to prove.

the DofE made a massive announcement this morning

Can you post a link to this? I can only find them saying they have no timetable and will be guided by the research, which is what you’d expect to hear until the government announces. So clearly isn’t stating that they won’t open may. Is there another statement, I assume so?

People lose their jobs all the time

Honestly now I think you’re having a laugh, predictions are for up to ten percent unemployment, if not more, it’s not a case of losing your job, it’s hard and you find another one. It’s a case of losing your job, not getting another one, and all the financial repercussions that come from it.

A society with ten percent unemployment is a very different one to a society with one or two percent.

Its right if Boris is out of favour.

His government should fall for the handling of this. But not now. Not at this time.

And I despise the fact that Murdoch et al can dictate what happens in this country.

Yes exactly. Normally the mail and Times are massively Tory supporting. Even they can’t find a positive spin this time. I suggest the explanation is that the government has mishandled this pandemic rather than the MoS and ST have suddenly had a massive u turn on their political allegiances.

I'm always surprised that people don't understand that the tame media are used by the government (and others, see some 'friends of' stories) to run stories to influence public opinion. It's quite sweet in a way. Of course, it works the other way as well - the media (may as well just write Murdoch there) control the government through their (his) influence on public opinion via the press.

Not sure of your point Jassy, it’s not happening, the DofE made a massive announcement this morning. This click bait headline is part of a Murdoch plant to blame Boris, hence the ST and MoS running it. Boris is out of favour, so it’s lies, misdirection and spin to turn everyone against him. I am always amazed people are so naive they don’t understand that. I suggest you actually look up the DofE announcements this morning. I know it doesn’t suit the back to school tomorrow agenda though, sorry about that.

I’ll reassure that I have no agenda, so no need of apology.

My point was that government doing one thing - even if huge and expensive - does not preclude it doing another thing that may seem to contradict the first thing.

The DfE announcement isn’t even actually that diametrically opposed to what is in the quad options paper (assume you’ve read both?) If schools go back part time for primary, year 10 and year 12 there will still be a significant amount of distance learning to do, and it is prudent to plan for all options. Of course, this work will have started well before and not informed by the options paper going to the quad and ultimately the PM.

@Quartz2208 Apologies I have that wrong then. And I am guessing that is where the figure that is being floated around that only 4% of the population have had this virus. Of course no one knows. But if only 4% of the population had caught covid 19 that would be alarming considering our current mortality rate is estimated to be over 20,000. So if it does spread a mortality rate of 400,000 is perfectly feasible.
I am not saying that is how many will die if it spreads as no one knows. But that is the logical conclusion if only 2-4% of the population have had it.

The DfE announcement isn’t even actually that diametrically opposed to what is in the quad options paper (assume you’ve read both?)

Sorry I realise I expressed this very badly! I meant reporting of the quad options paper, not the options paper itself. I hope that was clear anyway but I realise my own writing wasn’t. Getting more tea now - I miss coffee!

But that is the logical conclusion if only 2-4% of the population have had it.

We should have a better picture of this in the UK in the next few weeks.

From the DofE website, they arent saying anything about not opening schools. They are saying "until the scientific evidence changes":

"Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said:

I want to thank all the teachers and staff who are working so hard to ensure vulnerable children and those of critical workers are supported at this time.

Schools will remain closed until the scientific advice changes, which is why we need to support the incredible work teachers are already doing to ensure children continue to receive the education they deserve and need.

By providing young people with these laptops and tablets and enabling schools to access high quality support, we will enable all children to continue learning now and in the years to come. We hope this support will take some of the pressure off both parents and schools by providing more materials for them to use.

Schools and colleges will be able to keep their laptops and tablets once they have reopened. This means that they will play a crucial role in enabling children to learn while schools and colleges are closed, and will also continue helping children learn in the future"

@Bluntness100 I lived in a place during the 80s that had a much higher rate of unemployment than 10%. I understand the impact. I lived in poverty. I am not underestimating the impact of that. But because I have lived through it I also know that the vast majority survive it and come through to better times. I honestly think in 2 years after all this the economy will be almost back to normal. Two years of struggling is miserable, but in an ordinary life time of 80 years it is just a blip.
And recessions always throw up new innovators and entrepreneurs.

Teachers won't be around sick people. Why would they be given Ppe?

Hasn’t it been proven that a lot of people are asymptomatic? Being in close proximity to high numbers of people for long periods of time means a massively increased risk.

Once cinemas and theatres are open and people feel safe sitting next to someone for a couple of hours then schools will be ok to open I would think.

People lose their jobs all the time. I did two years ago when the company I worked for collapsed. My kids survived it. These are difficult things, but they are normal life stresses. Kids losing a parent is the worst thing that will happen to them. Do you think that baby left when her mum who was a nurse died would rather have had an unemployed mum or a dead mum?
There is a lot of catastrophising on MN at the moment about difficult and stressful but normal life events. Yes life is difficult and is going to carry on being difficult for many people. But any parent in the vulnerable group knows that being alive for their child is the most important thing.

@alloutoffucks

But you losing your job or the odd person being made redundant in ‘normal reality’ isn’t comparable to millions of people losing their jobs at the same time. How difficult would it be finding a new job when there are millions of others also looking?

What @Bluntness is getting at is that the vast majority of adults won’t be high risk at all and I agree. That’s a fact, not an opinion.

If you’re taking about those parents with young children, then the majority are going to be in their 40’s at latest.

@JassyRadlett Yes time is needed to learn more.

Yes time is needed to learn more.

Sorry I wasn’t clear - I was talking about the PHE population sampling being done as part of the testing programme.

alloutoffucks having an area of the country with extremely high unemployment versus having the entire country with extremely high unemployment is a completely different prospect economically though.