How long can we carry on like this for?

[Pseudosudocrem]

Anyone else starting to wonder just how long we can carry on like this before everything irrevocably falls apart?

How will we ever recover as a country?

They are already easing restrictions you can walk more than once you can use parks say goodbye to your loved one and drive to exercise and they have said the cemeteries need to be open too

I find it interesting seeing this discussion from a UK-centred perspective. Different countries have different scope for how hard and how long they lock down for.
I read an article on South Africa this morning. They locked down early, and hard. In South Africa, the poorest in their millions have great food insecurity and go hungry frequently, and often eat literally whatever they have managed to scrape together that day. In lockdown, they're buggered from Day 1.
The "average" South African household fares badly too. They tend to do one big shop a month and have some fresh, nutritious food for the first two weeks of the month, but the second two are then difficult, with a diet largely comprised of maizemeal porridge and little else. They will probably be buggered after about a month of lockdown.
Realistically, it won't take long before the medicine is worse than the disease.

Young or youngish parents with hungry children will rapidly view taking their chances with the virus as a far better option that being unable to feed their children.

I'm not even sure where I'm going with this - it's a global problem, I can foresee real problems with countries being so different in terms of the response that they can afford.

Slippery, that’s not an really an easing of the guidelines, it’s a clarification. That’s always been the case but people, politicians and even the police have made up their own versions through misunderstanding. Just like there has never been ‘essential shopping only’.

The actual legislation is quite broad and much less draconian than the official guidelines.

It won't last forever there would be riots before long there is only so much humans can take before they begin to revolt.

And sadly we are all scared of the virus and potentially the risk of it killing us or loved ones but there will come a time when people will just say I'll take my chances to be able to move freely again.

Also the government can't afford for our economy to nose dive further I reckon the latest will be mid May/June when they open up shops.

I don't think the schools will open again until September I think that's too much of a risk big gatherings and you can't tell little children to stay away in small groups so social distancing along with healthy and safety point of view would be hard to keep in schools.

I think work places such as big offices will split staff those that want to work from home can continue to do so and those that have to go in will be told to keep distance from other colleagues

And shops will just follow what supermarkets have done limited amount of people allowed in at a time etc

Everyone was begging for lockdown now where in one everyone wants it over??

There was an interesting chat about compliance during disasters and also input from a pollster on R4 earlier. It was very interesting on the behaviour angle. I’ll try to find a link.

It was basically: everything is OK right now but people need to know what the way out is going to be like. And that if politicians treat people as stupid then people will just do their own thing anyway.

I think it’s been alluded to on this thread. There’s a limit to the sacrifices people are prepared to make for others who are not directly connected to them. I think that’s just human nature though.

@woodchuck99 are they though at a significant risk? That is the thing we know how many people have very sadly died from this. We know how many people have tested positive, we dont know how many people have had it to come up with such a figure.

And in 3-4 weeks time when transmission is even lower the risk will be smaller.

It should come down to a choice though people should be given a choice as to what to do.

And I have to say I notice on here those who are happy for it to carry on seem to be ok in Lockdown. Many people arent and as a whole the Country cant carry on like this for awhile

It was basically: everything is OK right now but people need to know what the way out is going to be like. And that if politicians treat people as stupid then people will just do their own thing anyway

It seems obvious that people are a lot more likely to happily continue complying if they have an idea of what the exit strategy will look like. Meaning the powers that be somehow don't realise that, or they just have so little idea that they can't even give us a vague idea. Both of which are a bit concerning.

There’s a limit to the sacrifices people are prepared to make for others who are not directly connected to them. I think that’s just human nature though.

Exactly. Nobody would give up all their freedoms to protect, say, a hypothetical child abroad from malaria or river blindness. Most people just see an advert and say "oh that's sad" and that's about it. For people who are young, lost their job and don't know anyone vulnerable/don't know their grandparents, Covid is about a similar an "abstract" disease as malaria in Africa.

I’m so lost with days and times I’ve actually got no idea what time today that segment was on R4. It may even have been yesterday

I think it’s been alluded to on this thread. There’s a limit to the sacrifices people are prepared to make for others who are not directly connected to them. I think that’s just human nature though.

I think that depends on whether they are making the sacrifice for someone they love which many people are. Also, it doesn't really matter whether people what people are "prepared to sacrifice" if nothing is open including their workplaces. They can go around to each others houses but that is about it.

Of course people mostly care about what affects them - the ones who could lose their home/job and are scared for their future want an end to lockdown, the ones who are vulnerable or have a big house with a nice garden and WFH job are quite happy for it to continue.

Let's remember we have not been on lockdown for even a full month yet.

The whole point is to stretch out the time it takes for everyone to catch the virus and maximise survival of the almost 8 million who will need help when they do.

I think it's important to workout the figures.

I'm not a statistician but I think they are:

UK population: 65 million

80% catch the virus: 52,000,000

14% of which will need medical help if they catch Covid-19: 7,280,000

6% of which need intensive care: 436,800

The UK has 8,000 ventilators (436,800 /8000=54.6)
Average time needed on a ventilator=21 days

It will take 3 years to achieve herd immunity unless we do not ventilate people who need care. (21x54.6=1,146 days=3+years)

60% of those ventilated patients do not survive: 262,080

percentages quoted in www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

Businesses including small shops to reopen mid May.

Many would be allowed to open today, in fact they weren't required to close. Lots of reasons why they did though. Govt just saying they can re-open won't make it happen if there are underlying reasons.

Our local garage, chip shop and bakers aren't going to re-open any time soon - they didn't have to close in the first place as they are allowed to stay open as per the govt's list. They closed for other reasons, i.e. self isolating owners/staff, staff shielding vulnerable members of their households, not enough custom to justify opening, etc. I think the govt are going to have to "push" them to reopen, maybe by stopping the furlough and self employed support. But even that won't happen till end of June.

Maybe the govt can try to persuade bigger shops like DIY stores and garden centres etc to reopen in the meantime.

Nike I think I love you! You've explained this really well.

Other posters do realise that it's 4.6% of the people who die that are under 50. Not 4.6% of all people under 50.

I think a lot of shops/cafes/restaurants/pubs operate on very thin margins and rely on a lot of customers coming through the door - high volume, low margin. It probably just is not worth a restaurant's while to have "socially distanced" tables, as having 25% of the income would make them lossmaking.

Anyone who owns these sorts of businesses can confirm? This is just my suspicions.

Well said.

It should come down to a choice though people should be given a choice as to what to do.

Trouble is that someone's choice affects other people. People are at liberty to take risks for their own personal health, but should not be allowed take it upon themselves to go around freely, potentially infecting others, some of whom may be vulnerable.

Google “The hammer and the dance” worth reading.

I think a lot of shops/cafes/restaurants/pubs operate on very thin margins and rely on a lot of customers coming through the door - high volume, low margin. It probably just is not worth a restaurant's while to have "socially distanced" tables, as having 25% of the income would make them lossmaking.

Nail on the head. Lots of businesses rely on, say, lunchtime trade, whether they're shops, cafes, fast food, restaurants, etc. That means an hour or two of high intensity custom, full premises, all staff on deck behind the counter/in the kitchen. You simply can't apply social distancing when the premises are queued out of the door and you have 3 staff behind an 8 foot counter. If you restrict the staff and only allow 1 or 2 customers in a shop at a time, you'll never get enough through the door in the lunchtime trade to cover your costs, especially if it's pretty empty/quiet the rest of the day. Not to mention, with lunchtime trade, if there are few workers around, there'll be few customers anyway. It is usually the peaks where the profits are made - the rest of the day will usually be loss making. Even when they're allowed/encouraged to reopen, they won't bother if they need to social distance and/or the customers just aren't there in sufficient numbers. The only answer is the vaccine - until then, an awful lot of smaller businesses won't be reopening.

People are at liberty to take risks for their own personal health, but should not be allowed take it upon themselves to go around freely, potentially infecting others, some of whom may be vulnerable.

It's not that simple an argument - a lot of people overeat, for example, or choose to smoke and drink. This affects all of us and causes a strain on the NHS. They have essentially made themselves more at risk to diseases like Covid. Yet healthy people are not allowed to go out in case people who made themselves more susceptible to the virus, catch the virus?

Also, people are only able to infect others if the "others" are also walking around freely. If people don't want to be infected, they can choose to stay at home. Surely this would be a better policy - anyone who wants to stay at home can, and can get some UBI from the government - instead of quarantining the entire country?

@circusintown nhs is apparently already crippled so nothing else can happen

Yet healthy people are not allowed to go out in case people who made themselves more susceptible to the virus, catch the virus?

What about the vulnerable with health conditions that aren't lifestyle related, such as many cancers? Myeloma and Leukaemia sufferers are on the most vulnerable shielding list - neither of those have lifestyle related causes AND they can happen at any age, not just the old. Lots of other diseases and health conditions aren't lifestyle related either. You're starting to get very close to victim blaming!

I am amazed at how some people actually believe this is still going to be the way we are living our lives a year from now. Where do they honestly think the money would be coming from to enable them put food on the table, pay bills, keep a roof over their head. Of course businesses are going to be back up and running and schools back. Money makes the world go round. Social distancing will go out the window after the first month as I can't see many people being prepared to throw themselves under an oncoming bus/car to avoid walking past someone on the pavement etc.

We are not making a sacrifice for others we are making it possible for the country to get through this, so that it is manageable. It is hard but the alternative is that the death rate is over shorter period of time it is not only the health service that would not be able to cope. The crematoriums would not cope either. We also have a responsibility to the global community. If we do not manage it properly other countries will not want to trade with us. it is not about the Government being able to tell us when it will be over because they can only go by the death rate working with a virus that we cannot predict.